In yesterday’s analysis on Bitcoin (BTC), I expressed the opinion that the reflection from $ 30,000 is just an ordinary reflection of a dead cat. And in the subsequent stream, I again showed that it would make sense for Bitcoin to stay in the range of $ 42,000 – 30,000 for several weeks, where a new market equilibrium would be created. The ensuing breakthrough, wherever it was, would then direct us much better.
Bitcoin and the oncoming bear
If we fell by $ 30,000, it is 100% that the bull trend is definitely over, so we would have to prepare for a bearish trend, which can last for several years. It depends, of course, on the dynamics of development and macroeconomic circumstances. If the financial market is cool globally, the bear market may not last more than two years.
Anyway, as I’ve already heard, at the moment I’m really inclined to say that the bull trend is over. Some analysts say that if it lasts $ 30,000, it’s still kind of chance, that we will go up. On the one hand, it’s true, but on the other hand, there are those bears signals terribly much. Therefore, I immediately say that the transition to a bearish trend is technically confirmed. But to be sure, I repeat that no one is a seer.
Even signals can become invalid over time. However, when you see some crypto guru claiming that we are definitely going up, he is clearly talking nonsense. Many of them have long pushed people that Bitcoin will definitely exceed $ 100,000. And it will take a relatively long time to admit that they have made it up. That’s why I’ve been warning about this production for months, because technically they have their streams / videos excellently processed and people, of course, like their production.
You even know that videos have one directing. But the fact is that they have no education, no market experience. They have minimal knowledge of technical analysis and, most importantly, say exactly what their listeners want to hear. For fun feel free to watch them, but don’t take them seriously at all. They may understand the issue even less than you do, but they just give it a pleasing appearance.
Current situation at 1D TF BTC / USD
As for the daily BTC chart, yesterday’s candle was parked below the S / R level of $ 42,000 as expected, and at the moment we can be sure that the level is confirmed resistance. But the buying pressure at the surface was quite strong for a few hours, and for a few moments it seemed that the price could be pushed back. However, shoppers ceased to be proactive enough and the course was rejected.
The candle as such is quite common. Now, anyway, Bitcoin is consolidating under resistance, so there’s a chance of a breakthrough. Whenever the price consolidates at the S / R level after rejection, there is a chance that we will see another attempt at a breakthrough. However, I am quite skeptical that the breakout will work. And if they succeed, don’t get trapped.
If the BTC rate doesn’t get at least above $ 52,000, there’s still a high chance it’s bull trap. It is quite obvious that as soon as we exceed USD 42,000, retail will start to jump into the market again in a hurry. And then it’s like on a roller coaster just like in 2018.
With RSI, it is basically possible to achieve a bullish divergence, it would be enough to overcome the two-day-old low. There is, of course, a scenario in the game that we will be attacking the $ 30,000 again soon. There was a lot of shopping in the $ 34,000 to $ 30,000 range, and those who didn’t sell for $ 42,000 will start selling again in panic if we get too close to the band.
Current situation at 4H TF BTC / USD
On the 4H chart, I just want to show the reaction itself to the $ 42,000. We can clearly observe that there were several rejections of the level in a relatively short time. Thus, the level really proved to be strong resistance. However, he still holds the local $ 39,126 so far, so there is a chance that Bitcoin will try another breakthrough. A successful breakout is not ruled out either, but as I said, I am quite skeptical about that.
RSI is still below 50 points. While there is still a positive momentum on the MACD.
When the price rises steadily and aggressively for too long, financial risk with that, of course maximizes. You must never forget this simple lesson, because otherwise your capital is in great danger. You must constantly protect your capital when it is in the market. This is a basic thing, but it is so neglected.
ATTENTION: No data in the article is an investment board. Before you invest, do your own research and analysis, you always trade only at your own risk. The kryptomagazin.cz team strongly recommends individual risk considerations!