As the World Order Closes, Growing Risks of the Recession

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Assumptions are made about how the world is broken, a global recession often occurs. The world learned that in the early 1970s the oil age was free, in the early 1980s countries could default, and ten years ago American mortgages and global banks are not safe.

Today, a similar reflection on globalization is taking place. From Washington to Buenos Aires, the loyalty of nations to open markets is falling apart. In response, investors are reorganizing portfolios, businesses are rethinking investments and policy makers are struggling to respond – all of which are pushing the global economy closer to recession.

Investors believe that central banks – the ultimate foundation of the technological minority, globalization – can use their limited ammunition to stop recession. But the central banks can be drawn into the competitive economy.

Nationalism and the conflict with the headlines in 2016 when the Britons voted to leave the European Union and

Donald Trump

was elected as President of U. This was originally seen as a backup against the indifference of Technological elites to cultural and economic concerns that arose from globalization, free trade and uncontrolled immigration.

Over the past month it has been clear that nationalists are not correcting global surpluses; they aim to suppress them all. After two years of unsuccessful attempts to negotiate an EU departure for the majority of secure commercial relations, Britain now has a prime minister, t

Boris Johnson,

willing to make a net break by 31 October irrespective of the economic cost.

Countervailing forces at home and abroad were engaged in Mr Trump's early defensive strike by traditional allies. But the fall in trade talks with China sees a more fundamental exposure to the rules of economic participation between the world's economies. Arising from their efforts to write a new rulebook, the US and China have resorted to ad hoc tariffs, depreciation and retaliation, pressure expulsion and reimbursement, which simply show Tuesday's surprise tariff.

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Elsewhere, the deputy prime minister of Italy,

Matteo Salvini,

The leader of the anti-immigrant party, anti-immigrant, is seeking to draw down its own coalition with a view to new elections being led by the government. A trade war is brewing between American and South Korea colleagues and Japan over ancient, uncalled wounds. The Argentine stock peso and market were tapping this week when Peronists, who had the alien history and guardianship in the country, focused on their current faults, the next government.

Over the past two years, US economies and global economies have exceeded nationalism and conflict. The frontage was defensive and it was more than offset by positive things such as tax cutting and deregulation drive by Mr Trump. It can no longer be ignored: Businesses and investors, who are not sure what the rules govern international commerce, are retreating from dangerous investments.

In Britain, Brexit's uncertainty ended business investment, probably contributing to a temporary second-quarter economic contraction. There may be a recession in Germany, perhaps the most sensitive from a trade point of view of the major economies, because of its economy in the second quarter, according to figures issued Wednesday. Exports are falling and are slowly growing by both the US and China. We have manufacturing and investment hit by American manufacturing.

The largest companies involved in the world economy contributed to the stock market buttons

Thatte Parag

of it

Deutsche Bank
.

The profits of blue chip companies that have been exposed worldwide have declined by 100% in the last three years, with profits mainly directed at the US up 5.5%.

Globalization has suffered temporarily in recent years. This time depends differently. As a result of the US, which has led global institutions like the World Trade Organization to prove, they are interfering with them. In the latest issue of Foreign Affairs, trade economists

John Bown

and

Douglas Irwin

note that Mr Trump's use of national security to protect tariffs and quotas for imports of steel, aluminum and cars with 75 years of US practice broke: “Recently, the Trump administration stood with the Russian side to argue. the use of national security is not sufficient to overcome any WTO challenge trade barrier. ”

The United States used the economic, military and moral weight they had previously to promote economic integration among allies. “We would put our arms around the shoulders of the contradictory parties and we would say, now the guys come, we will do this,” says

Dan Price,

served as an economic diplomat in Reagan's administration and the two Bush governments.

In contrast, Mr Trump has divided Britain into the EU and has done little to keep the rise between Japan and South Korea. Mr Price says, “As soon as people think no one is caring for the collective interest, there is no moderate force in the room, when the United States you have, for example, because legitimacy is justified, female it with the prohibitions from others. ” t

This was not a crisis or a recession because the leverage and financial interconnections that extend panic across borders are largely absent and consumers are worried about healthy labor markets. Unlike in the 1970s and 1980s, interest rates are low, even negative.

But eliminating disruptive currency unionism and monetary policy could be extended.

China let the Yuan fall after Mr Trump bought up tariffs. While it is justified on the basis of economics, investors said that it was a sign that China did not want a ceasefire in the trading war, says

Barry Eichengreen,

Economic historian at the University of California, Berkeley.

I don't like Trump when the currencies of countries like China, Korea and Vietnam refuse against the dollar. It is therefore likely to put additional tariffs at risk.

Write Greg Ip at greg.ip@wsj.com

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