(CNN) –– President Donald Trump will defend the Hispanic votes in his favor in Arizona and Nevada this week. For your part, Joe Biden, Democratic candidate for president, he will make his first appearance in Florida this Tuesday, at an event commemorating Hispanic Heritage Month.
The actions of the two campaigns are a recognition of the importance of the Hispanic vote. And they happen while Trump is doing better with this population than four years ago.
That improvement helps the president stay competitive in places he wouldn’t be otherwise.
In 2016, Hillary Clinton easily appealed to Hispanic voters. She had an advantage of 37 points in this population, in an average of the last pre-election polls.
Biden is also winning the Hispanic vote right now, but only by 28 points on average polls. live interviews During the last months. Since I’ve averaged nearly 20 polls, we can be sure that this shift in the Hispanic vote is real. Furthermore, it is quite consistent with a previous analysis that I did in June, in which Biden was winning among Hispanics by less than 30 points.
Perhaps it’s no surprise that Biden’s best path to the White House is to prevail in winning states where Trump triumphed four years ago. Places where voters Hispanics represent less than 5% of the electorate. Specifically, Biden is up at least five points in the past two months in Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.
Indeed, Biden could struggle with the Hispanic vote and still win the election. It is, in fact, something you are doing right now. Biden leads by 7 points at the national level. Plus, he has at least a trivial advantage in the six most contested states Trump won in 2016: Arizona, Florida, Michigan, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.
Biden can do it because he has countered his relative weakness with Hispanics by doing extremely well with Hispanics. white voters. Biden has cut Clinton’s deficit among white voters in pre-election polls from about 13 points in 2016 to just four points now.
The result is a Biden advantage nationally and in swing states. Precisely, white voters represent about 7 times the percentage of the Hispanic electorate nationally and at least three times (although in some cases many more times) in the most contested undecided states in which Trump won. 2016.
That said, Biden’s issues with Hispanic voters make his job difficult. Hispanics make up at least 15% of the electorate in Arizona, Florida and Nevada. The same is true in Texas, where Biden’s campaign wants to be competitive.
Florida is especially where Biden would love to win. The state has 29 electoral votes, the most of any state that went from Barack Obama in 2012 to Trump in 2016.
If Biden were to emerge victorious in Florida, the chances of Trump’s electoral map would basically be cut off.
However, an average of recent polls saw Biden rise just under 3 points. That’s a four-point change for Biden since Clinton’s one-point loss four years ago. It has had changes of more than five points in the battlefields of the Great Lakes (known as the US industrial belt or Rust Belt, in English) of Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.
Without a doubt, part of Biden’s problem with Hispanic voters is Trump’s efforts to win over this electorate in Florida. He has long been involved in the idea of attracting Hispanic Floridians, and it seems to be paying off.
An average of nonpartisan live interview polls from Florida taken since the summer gives Biden just a six-point lead with Hispanics. That’s considerably less than the 21-point lead Clinton had with them in the latest 2016 pre-election polls.
You’ll notice that the Biden run in Florida appears to be a bit longer than the entire country. That could be a sample size issue (meaning we have fewer polls in Florida than nationally), but it could also be due to the nature of the Hispanic vote in Florida.
Cuban Americans make up about one-third of Hispanic voters in Florida. They have a much more Republican slant than Hispanics as a whole nationally. There is also some evidence to suggest that they have moved further to the right in this election compared to other Hispanics.
Now if you don’t think this group can make a difference, you don’t need to look too far to remember their voting power. In 2018, now-Senator Rick Scott won by just 10,000 votes (out of more than 8 million). And it did so by reducing the difference of 29 points with Trump a 21 points at Miami-Dade County, with a large Cuban population. Scott easily won the vote Cuban American.
Biden’s relative weakness to Hispanic voters is not likely to change the rules of the game in Arizona, Nevada and Texas. It’s not that Hispanic voters aren’t so crucial in these states. It is less clear that they will make a big difference in the outcome of the elections. Regardless of any Hispanic issues, Biden has gained nearly 10 points more than Clinton in Arizona and Texas. Additionally, Nevada’s six electoral votes make only a difference in a select few arenas.
Still, the Hispanic poll results have to be disappointing for Democrats. Democrats may have expected their party to rapid diversification, and whose movement to the left on immigration over the past decade, it would help them expand their lead with Hispanics. This survey suggests that, for whatever reason, it has not happened.
Democrats should hope that the history of Hispanic late voters will benefit them in 2020. Nate Cohn of The New York Times noted that Hispanics were much more likely to be undecided at the end of the 2018 campaign. A quick look at CNN polls taken this summer shows that, on average, twice as many Hispanics (10%) said they currently did not plan to vote by Biden or Trump than voters overall (5%). That is a statistically significant difference.
It is not clear whether Biden can win late support from Hispanics.