Home » Business » Debt: Cadastro Positivo has too much debt – 05/13/2022 – Market

Debt: Cadastro Positivo has too much debt – 05/13/2022 – Market

A survey based on data from 130 million consumers and companies registered in the Cadastro Positivo – a sort of list of good payers – classifies 42% of debt as over-indebted, that is, with debt out of control .

Another 13% of control limits, and 24% are closer to solving their pending problems. There are also the disorganized (21%), people who go in and out of delinquency, and more spending up to date than late, according to a classification made by the data intelligence company Quod.

The Cadastro Positivo numbers, which also include data on bank credit and consumer accounts, for example, show a 15% increase in total debt at the beginning of the year compared to the same period in 2021, confirming a trend seen in other countries. .

In a scenario of high interest rates, high inflation and a drop in the income of the population, crime has started to grow again and may represent a restriction on the consumption of goods and services via credit.

Central Bank data show that the rate of bank debt in arrears for more than 90 days has increased since July last year, but it is still far from the peaks seen in 2012, 2016 and 2020.

Serasa numbers, which provide a more complete picture of the debt, show that the total number of pre-record debts reached the beginning of the pandemic: 65 million people. There is R $ 265.8 million in debt, or R $ 4,046 per person, with emphasis on the rate of debt on the card (28%), consumer accounts (23%) and retail (13%).

The five major financial institutions, which published their quarterly balance sheets this week, estimate that their numbers will still get worse this year, but should stabilize in the second half.

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Cadastro Positivo actually started to gain a significant number of participants only in 2020. As it takes some time to form a good credit history, this should be the first moment of delinquency in which the tool will be available to improve analysis of concessions and collection arrears yo.

In this way, according to him, it is possible to identify a consumer who has no overdue debt, but is heavily indebted and whose income is compromised by their renegotiation of overdue debt. Or someone with the name of negative record, but low debt and the ability to regularize the situation.

“We can not only see who is in arrears, but what is happening to those who are in arrears. Who am I charging, how am I charging, how can I give better credit, all this is possible and the Positive Register.This is a difference [para outros momentos de alta da inadimplência]”, says Ricardo Thomaziello, Quod’s data area manager.

According to the analysis carried out by the company, the increase in the number of debts occurred mainly in the categories of people in debt control limits and those close to regularize the situation.

Among those who already had delays in registration, 15% immigrated in a better situation and 11% in a worse situation.

All major financial institutions recorded an increase in delinquency in the first half of the year.

Milton Maluhy Filho, president of Itaú, stated during the publication of the results that, in a scenario of high interest rates and inflation, the trend for default rates to continue with moderate increases over the coming quarters.

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A similar perception was conveyed by the presidents of Bradesco, Octavio de Lazari Junior, and of Banco do Brasil, Fausto Ribeiro.

The CEO of Santander Brasil, Mario Leão, does not expect the rising trend of default to continue at the same pace in the next quarter of years, but also says that it is still not possible to see, at the moment, again. substantial improvement in the indices.

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