Donald Trump and Joe Biden are fighting for the US presidency. According to polls, Biden is ahead, but Trump can catch up in key swing states. The race is close. The current forecasts.
US President Donald Trump and its challenger, the former vice president Joe Biden, compete at the US election on November 3rd about the presidency. The race is close – a lot will depend on which candidate can win in the major swing states. It currently stands Florida Particularly in focus, Biden’s lead in the US state has shrunk to 1.2 percentage points. Biden has also lost its lead in New Hampshire.
The election campaign takes place in a time of crisis that Corona-Pandemie has hit the United States hard and since the spring there has been after the death of the African American George Floyd Mass protests against racism and police violence in the country.
By the summer, Trump’s crisis management meant that he was well behind the Democrat Biden in national polls and was only able to catch up slowly by the fall. Nationwide, Biden’s average lead in the surveys is over 7.6 percent. (As of September 14, 1 p.m.)
Who is really ahead?
The problem: National surveys are in the USA little information about who will be allowed to move into the White House in the end. In the US election in 2016, the Democrat was Hillary Clinton in the end with 48.2 percent of the vote before republican Trump with 46.1 percent. The end is known, Trump became US President anyway.
This is primarily due to the US electoral system. The president is not elected directly by the people, but by 538 electoral men and women. Each state has a certain number of them according to population size. The candidate with the most votes in the state basically registers all of the state’s electorate for himself. Exception: In Maine and Nebraska, the votes of the electorate are divided according to majorities in the constituencies. The overall winner of the state receives two more votes.
That is why it is comparatively difficult to predict the US election. But with a look at opinion polls in the various US states, one can estimate how close the race really is.
Current forecasts: According to the average calculations of “270toWin”, a non-partisan political side, Biden is clearly in the lead after electors. The race has not yet been decided.
What is the situation like in the swing states?
Biden’s lead over Trump is not as big as it might seem. US presidential elections are often decided in a few “swing states” – these are US states in which in the past there was often a changing Democratic or Republican majority. In some of them the race is close and there are many electors.
The US presidential elections were often decided in Ohio, Michigan and Florida. In these US states the race is tight, including the race Biden against Trump. Most recently, Biden lost his lead in the polls almost entirely in Florida and North Carolina, with a total of 44 electoral men and women in the two US states alone.
Current forecast: In the 2020 US election it is particularly surprising that the polls in Texas predict a relatively close result. If Trump loses in the home country of the Republicans (38 electoral men and women), he will probably also lose the election. For Biden, a victory in Florida (29 electoral men and women) would be a big step towards the presidency. Here, Trump was able to prevail just under (1.6 percent) against Clinton in 2016.
Democrats or Republicans – who will win the majority in Senate and Congress?
In November, not only the US President will be elected, but also the House of Representatives and the Senate.
In the House of Representatives, according to current calculations by “270toWin”, it looks like the Democrats could defend or even expand their majority. The 435 members of the House of Representatives each represent one constituency and are directly elected every two years. The survey shown reflects the trends in the electoral districts. Even if the Democrats lost all races that are currently considered “close”, they should still retain a majority.
The battle for a majority in the Senate looks tighter, and it is still completely unclear which party will be able to achieve a majority here after the November election. About a third of the Senate is re-elected every two years. This third is highlighted in the graphic.
The Senate consists of 100 senators. Each state has two seats. In the states that have to award a mandate, it is decided by majority vote. The survey values shown reflect the trends in the states.
Current forecast: The polls currently see the Democrats at an advantage. If this is confirmed, the party could win majorities in Congress and Senate in addition to the US presidency. That would give them plenty of room for maneuver over the next two years and would be a heavy defeat for Trump and the Republicans.