We have a new Brexit agreement arguing that the EU is not a renegotiation, a special arrangement for Northern Ireland that the UK is not expecting backwards (the name of the original guarantee in the May deal to avoid a hard border in Ireland), and the official request of the UK. Great on an extension of the October 31 deadline says Johnson does not want it.
You can imagine that the 27 other leaders in the EU are taking deep breaths and counting to 10. The Union has made a strong effort to share Britain's members with Brexit, and has been very relieved. New discussion with Johnson last week. relief. Finally, the EU could go ahead with other issues, from America's tariff war with America to tackle climate change and try to keep China a positive line.
French president, Emmanuel Macron, said he was happy with Johnson, of course, that he would put an end to his ambitions for a deeper EU integration of the Brits – conveniently. Now, again, there is a possibility that there will be a delay, and the threat of a greater deficit as Britain's dysfunctional national politics affects the orderly running of the EU and opposes that unity. .
So what should the block do? There is a terrible response in the interest of anyone. Parliament has not really voted on the new Brexit market yet. The demand for a three-month extension to Johnson was applied by British makers as a way of ensuring that the Halloween deadline for himself and his Brexiter allies would not allow the House of Commons to be mastered to accept his “deal or no deal.”
Any ruling from Brussels would be an extension before Parliament's votes on Johnson's dealings (which could happen in the next few days) as part of US politics. Likewise, if Johnson were to manage any delay, it would mean that the EU would have to separate without dealing ugly and economically on 31 October if Westminster failed to deal with it.
If Members of Parliament allow a quick deal with Johnson, the debate is overwhelming. It is clear that the EU would give the UK sufficient time to jump through the various legislative hoops to bring Brexit into law.
Where things are complicated if Westminster is taking off Macron's plans for a rapid divorce and refuses to deal with Johnson. Failure to deal with a handful of votes, and if those votes come from Johnson's relaxation allies in the Northern Ireland Democratic Unionist party, then Macron may have more scenes of extension. Brussels could only offer a short delay (less than the three months requested) to try to affect the most recent Custody Deaths held by the teams or to deal with any dealings.
However, as Johnson's dealings in the Commission are severely affected, as the discussion took place in May, he will show the EU that Britain needs a deeper political change to break the log. More European calls are likely to get longer – enough time to attend a general election or a second referendum – to win the day.
Even if it is seen today that some sort of extension is inevitable, no one should underestimate the weather that this debate could be among EU leaders. The situation is very different from that of May, when Brexiters made a hardcore complaint that she had made a poor job and was able to get better dealings from Brussels. Brexiters do not blame the EU more for the problem of U.K clearly: Parliament inability to make a decision.
Macron's disquiet with London is spreading to his colleagues, with the German Chancellor Angela Merkel talking about Britain as a former “Brexit” competitor. ”There is a point where there will be an unlimited delay in dealing.
To contact the author of this story: Lionel Laurent at firstname.lastname@example.org
To contact the editor responsible for this story: James Boxell at email@example.com
This column does not necessarily reflect the opinion of the editorial board or the Bloomberg LP and its owners.
Lionel Laurent is columnist Opinion Bloomberg covering Brussels. He previously worked at Reuters and Forbes.