Friday, 14 Dec 2018

Evolution of Trump's popularity rating, according to data specialist Donald Trump

Late Wednesday night, President Trump tweeted a celebratory image.

According to Rasmussen Reports, 50% of the ratings were approved by Trump, which Trump attributes to his hard work. "Promises made; kept promises, "read the banners behind him.

This is not the first time Trump has tweeted a number of an approval survey. In fact, he has done it about two dozen times, both by his general approval and by that of African Americans (usually the only demographic group he chooses to share). This frequency allows us to create a sort of approval approval survey trend chart, grouping the numbers that it has shared.

So, let's go.

One thing you will notice is that the trend is … rather flat. Trump's tweet about his 50% approval is at least the seventh time that he celebrates a 50% approval rating, which is a bit like Apple repeatedly sending out releases selling its stock at $ 170. At some point, a wise observer will notice that nothing ever changes or that, between these press releases, the title drops.

Before determining what is the case for Trump, note that at least three times he tweeted poll numbers, these numbers were incorrect, estimated or non-existent.

There was his tweet noting that his approval was "almost" identical to that of Barack Obama at the same time of his first term; Trump's approval in the poll cited by Rasmussen was actually two points lower.

There was the tweet declarer his approval was "about 50 percent" in Rasmussen "and other" polls. Rasmussen had it at 47%.

And then there was the weather in August when he claims have a 52 percent approval rate. It seems that he may have accidentally pointed out his tellapproval of a Wall Street Journal-NBC News poll.

With these corrections, our graph looks like this.

(Philip Bump / The Washington Post)

Let's go back to the other question then. Does Trump's approval stay flat or does Trump ignore downward fluctuations?

You will surely notice that Trump frequently quotes the Rasmussen polls. In fact, almost all the polls he has highlighted on Twitter come from this pollster. It seems that Trump often skims the cream at the top of the Rasmussen poll; those he chooses to highlight usually come from new heights in the Rasmussen polls or 50%.

When Rasmussen got his approval, and then surpassed 51% in early April, this sparked Trump's tweets. Shortly after, we wrote an article noting that the results of Rasmussen could be taken with a grain of salt.

Why? Mainly because Rasmussen sees results almost always more favorable to Trump than other polls. If we compare the results of Rasmussen to the average RealClearPolitics polls – an average that includes the results of Rasmussen! – You can see that Trump's favorite pollster results are almost always above or above the average of all other polls.

(Philip Bump / The Washington Post)

Since the inauguration of Trump, Rasmussen's results have been above the average ROE 99.4% of the time.

It is not because the polls of a pollster do not match those of other polls that polls are false. They might follow a trend that others do not see. Fortunately, we can assess Rasmussen's accuracy against a recent verifiable benchmark: the mid-term elections.

Democrats won 53.4% ​​of the vote in the National Chamber at the time of writing to the 44.9% of Republicans, a gap of 8.5 points. We can compare this to a generic ballot vote, a poll question that asks voters what party they prefer in a generic house contest. The final average polling by RealClearPolitics gave the Democrats an advantage of 7.3 points, which means the average was down 1.2 percentage points.

The last Rasmussen poll had the republicans with a benefit in house competitions from one point. Rasmussen missed the result with 9.5 points.

A few minutes after the publication of this article, Trump posted a new tweet.

On Thursday morning, Rasmussen updated his tracking numbers for daily approvals. According to their "just reported" data, Trump returned to 49%.

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