The only thing that is clearly clear in the muddle of this new phase of Brexit is the will of British Prime Minister Boris Johnson to go down in history as the "hero" who took the United Kingdom out of the European Union, and not as the "villain" »That worked its economic failure and the political partition of the country. The agreement announced yesterday is calculated so that the "premier" takes the merit of a happy ending and at the same time can be excused in the case – still highly likely – that the United Kingdom leaves without agreement on October 31.
Johnson's maneuver to advance through the safety net cable is not bad at all. The unequivocal support of the 27 agreed, and the statements of Juncker – "there is no agreement for an extension at the exit" – neutralize the Benn law passed in the British Parliament by Johnson's adversaries to force him to extend the deadline. The EU would also be responsible for a Brexit without agreement if the European Parliament eventually rejects the agreement between London and Brussels.
On the British front, the most tumultuous, the bet is also well measured. The Labor opposition continues to deny the main premise – the mere exit of the Union, with or without agreement – and demands that the agreement be submitted to a referendum, another referendum, something that the Government considers unacceptable. To knock down the pact in the Commons, and thus precipitate an exit without agreement on the 31st of this month, it is enough that the Labor join the support of the unionists of Northern Ireland, or perhaps of a departure of the more than 20 deputies « tories »expelled from the match by Boris Johnson in recent weeks for his warmth« brexiter ».
But the greatest danger in precipitating a Brexit without agreement – something that Johnson does not seem to care much in the end – comes perhaps from the DUP bench. The Northern Irish Protestants lose a lot of power with the agreement between Johnson and Brussels. They will have to maintain at least four years the rules of the EU customs union, and will not have veto power in front of the other Catholic half, which will be happy to continue them. In the end Boris Johnson has a hybrid of Theresa May and Pilatos.