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Hamburg election: This generation has decided the state election

Germany Hamburg election

This generation made the choice

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The SPD dominates in Hamburg

Big victory despite significant losses: The SPD, which is in crisis in the federal government, is consolidating its power in the Hamburg elections. For AfD and CDU, however, the election evening in the Hanseatic city was a disaster.

In the state elections in Hamburg there were significant shifts in the share of votes – the Greens in particular were able to win. A look at the demographics shows which party had its strengths and weaknesses and where.

BIn the state election in Hamburg, the CDU fell to an all-time low, the Greens recorded the greatest growth. The analysis by the research group elections shows some very interesting demographic trends:


The basis of the SPD election victory is the 60 plus generation: among the older voters, the Social Democrats even managed to increase slightly and won 55 percent (plus two percentage points). The SPD still managed 32 percent (minus eleven) of all under-60s and is practically overtaken by the Greens. At 31 percent (plus 15) among the under-60s, they are around three times as strong as the CDU (ten percent, minus four), and among all under-45s they became the strongest force. The CDU has a mere seven percent of the under-30s and 15 percent of the over-60s.

At 15 percent, the left does more than twice as well with the under 30s as with the over 60s with 7 percent. There are only relatively minor differences between the age groups in the FDP and AfD.


Source: WORLD infographic


Among women, the SPD (39 percent) and Greens (29 percent) are particularly strong, the FDP (four percent) and the AfD (three percent) are particularly weak. The same order of the six parties is shown for men. However, the SPD (36 percent) and Greens (24 percent) are slightly below their average, the FDP and AfD are slightly above each with six percent.


Source: WORLD infographic


With 46 percent, the SPD is clearly ahead of the workforce, as is the government with 42 percent. The Social Democrats are also the strongest party among employees (38 percent) and the self-employed (30 percent) – albeit with a slightly smaller lead over the Greens (28 and 27 percent, respectively). The CDU has its best value among the self-employed – at 14 percent, however, at a modest level. While the left is relatively homogeneous in all four occupational groups, the FDP is three times as popular with self-employed people as with workers. The AfD, on the other hand, achieved its best value with eleven percent among workers.


Source: WORLD infographic


For voters with a secondary school leaving certificate, the SPD has a clear absolute majority with 61 percent, the FDP scores the worst with four percent. Even among voters with medium maturity, the SPD is clearly ahead with 45 percent, here too the FDP is behind with four percent. The SPD (33 percent) has a relatively small lead over the Greens (29 percent) among voters with a high school diploma; at the end of the party scale, the AfD (four percent) is among this group of voters. Finally, among voters with a university degree, the Greens do better at 35 percent than the SPD (30 percent), while the AfD is worst at three percent.


Source: WORLD infographic

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Tschentscher’s high reputation

The citizenship election was decided primarily on the spot: Politics in the city-state were decisive for 71 percent of those surveyed. Here, the SPD and the Greens scored with convincing Senate work, technical expertise and top scores when it came to watching parties.

The SPD in particular benefited from a superior top candidate. Mayor Peter Tschentscher (SPD), after just two years in office, surpasses most of the other heads of state government: 79 percent certify that he does a good job, and with the image (+ 5 / -5 scale: 2.7) he manages the rarely high level of predecessors Olaf Scholz (2015: 2.7). His challenger from the Greens, Katharina Fegebank (1.7; 2015: 0.7), is also clearly rated positively. As the first mayor, only 27 percent want sweeping banks, 57 percent are for Tschentscher.

In addition to the powerful top staff from the SPD and the Greens, there is the remarkably high reputation of their parties: The Hamburg Greens achieved a very good 1.8 (2015: 1.1) on the + 5 / -5 scale, the SPD even an outstanding 2.5 (2015 : 2.7). In no federal state does a party have more reputation – although the respondents clearly differentiate: The federal SPD is rated far less positively with 1.0 (2015: 2.0).

At the CDU, the reputation of the Federal Party declined (0.6; 2015: 1.7), the Hanseatic city had a very low reputation (0.0; 2015: 0.5) and
a non-competitive candidate Marcus Weinberg (+ 5 / -5 scale: 0.4). For just eleven percent of Hamburg residents, the CDU stands for modern urban politics. 25 percent call the Greens and 40 percent the SPD, which generally also “fits Hamburg” for 80 percent.

In addition, there are clear deficits in terms of content at the CDU: When it comes to transport, only 13 percent rely on the Christian Democrats, but 36 percent on the Greens and 24 percent on the SPD. When it comes to the housing market and education, the CDU is outclassed by an SPD that, with its unusually large amount of economic qualities, also reaches the Hanseatic-economic liberal milieu: In a location that, in Hamburg’s opinion, is in an economically excellent location, the SPD is also far ahead of the CDU in economic and political terms (43 18 percent).

The numbers are based on a telephone survey of the research group elections among 1607 randomly selected voters in Hamburg in the week before the election as well as on the survey of 15,537 voters on the day of the election.

The most important information about the Hamburg election on February 23:

Follow all current developments in the state election here in our live ticker,


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