High-risk transition in Sudan

► What happened Monday, May 13 in the Sudanese capital?

Six people were killed (five demonstrators and one soldier) in the evening by unidentified gunmen "Said the Military Council, which currently controls the country. The protesters participated in an opposition sit-in for more than a month in front of the army headquarters in Khartoum. The shooting occurred a few hours after the announcement of an agreement between the representatives of the protest and the military on the form of the transition announced.

Meanwhile, ex-President Omar al-Bashir, who has already been imprisoned, was charged in the day by the Sudanese justice killing of protesters ". The undisputed master of Sudan between 1989 and 2019 is also subject to arrest warrants from the International Criminal Court (ICC) for crimes against humanity, war crimes and genocide. " Many still influential people have no interest in seeing Omar al-Bashir speak or be judged by the ICC, says Marc Lavergne, director of research at CNRS. It is only a symbol of a larger system. If he speaks, many others may fall. "

► What are the protesters demanding?

When the protests began on December 19, the demands centered on raising the price of bread and fuel. The liquidity shortages also fueled the anger of the capital's middle class. The crisis in agricultural production has also contributed to increasing the exasperation of a rural world already in difficulty. These protests against the high cost of living, however, quickly turned into general protests against the regime of President Omar al-Bashir. The latter was dismissed by the army on April 11. The military then took the reins of the country by promising to organize a transition.

Sudan, the army under the pressure of the street

According to Anne-Laure Mahe, a researcher at the Institute of Strategic Research of the Military School (Irsem), the general demand of the demonstrators is now " a democratic transition to competent technocratic powers ". A union has also formed within the civil society, in order to fight against the military. This coalition brings together the powerful association of Sudanese professionals and political parties. It is at the origin of the demonstrations and remains very fragile because all the actors are not ready to make the same concessions vis-à-vis the military.

The question of the role of Islam in Sudanese politics is another important issue. " The shari'a-based Islamic model, instituted by the regime in 1989, does not correspond to the religious traditions of Sudanese societyexplains Anne-Laure Mahe. Nobody questions Islam in Sudan, but it is the way it is practiced by the regime that was heavily criticized during the protests "Continues the researcher.

► Where is Sudan going?

If a transition agreement seems to be found between the protesters and the army, the place of civil society in the decision-making process is not yet clearly defined. " The balance of power does not work in favor of the demonstrators. We risk seeing a civilian government appear under the guardianship of the militarys, "explains Marc Lavergne.

Financial resources may be lacking for civil society to ensure the transition. " The only ones that are ready to give money right now are the Gulf countries. but they will not give to a democratic system, they will give to the militarys, judge the researcher. The only way to revive the economy is to cut off the money for the military who aspire 80% of the state budget. But they are in charge, so why would they do that? We are at an impasse. "

. (TagsToTranslate) Sudan (t) Africa (t) Transition (t) risk

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