How is the approval of the President and mayors – Political Parties – Politics


A growth in the approval of the administration of President Iván Duque and a reduction in the support of citizens for several mayors in the country revealed a survey carried out by Invamer and published in some media.

The survey was conducted between January 7 and 23 and measured, as usual, some key indicators, at a time when various parts of the country are experiencing an increase in the pandemic and there are some restrictions on mobility.

According to the figures, President Duque’s discharge went from 31 percent last October to 36 percent in January this year. His disapproval rating dropped from 61 percent three months ago to 59 percent.

In contrast, most of the measured capital city mayors fell in the same period.

Claudia López, the mayor of Bogotá, went from 71 percent in October to 61 percent in the January measurement, and her disapproval rose from 24 to 37 percent.

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Support for the management of the mayor of Medellín, Daniel Quintero, dropped from 67 to 55 percent and disapproval went from 27 to 42 percent.

In the cases of López and Quintero, it should be said, there are processes of revocation of their mandates that are about to begin collecting signatures.

Daniel Quintero, mayor of Medellín, and Claudia López, mayor of Bogotá.

Photo:

EL TIEMPO and Bogotá City Hall

The steepest fall was the mayor of Cali, Jorge Iván Ospina, who reduced support for his administration by 27 points: it went from 65 percent in October to 38 percent in the recent measurement. His disapproval rose from 31 to 60 percent.

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And the mayor of Bucaramanga, Juan Carlos Cárdenas, fell slightly from 56 to 53 percent in support of his work and rose one point in disapproval: from 38 to 39 percent.

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The only one of the local leaders to be measured and who rose was the mayor of Barranquilla, Jaime Pumarejo, whom 73 percent of his countrymen continue to support.. In October it was 69 percent. Disapproval of Pumarejo dropped from 29 percent to 24 percent.

Pessimism

The percentage of people who believe things are getting worse also rose. In the case of Bogotá, it rose from 67 percent in October to 76 percent in the recent survey, while those who think that everything is improving went from 28 to 21 percent.

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In Medellín, this indicator rose from 44 percent three months ago to 56 percent in January and the percentage of those who believe that things are improving fell from 49 to 34 percent.

In the case of Cali, the pessimists went from 65 percent in October to 75 percent in January, and in Barranquilla they rose from 38 to 41 percent. In Bucaramanga they rose from 52 to 56 percent.The following is the technical sheet of the survey.

COMPANY THAT CONDUCTED THE SURVEY: INVAMER SAS NATURAL OR LEGAL PERSON WHO ENGAGED IT: INVAMER SAS, for sale by subscription.
SOURCE OF FINANCING: INVAMER SAS’s own resources OBJECTIVES: to measure the approval of the President and the favorability of characters and institutions in Colombia. Know public opinion on current events. Evaluate the opinion of the general public of Colombia and of President Iván Duque Márquez. Measure the concept of the people facing current Colombian problems. Observe the level of acceptance of people regarding laws, proposals or statements of the moment. Carry out a general evaluation in the main cities of the country on the work of the respective mayor and the way people are perceiving their city. UNIVERSE: men and women aged 18 or over, of all socio-economic levels, residents in: Bogotá (5,479,011), Medellín (1,813,155), Cali (1,374,126), Barranquilla (810,019) and Bucaramanga ( 390,351), for a total of 9,866,662 people, according to the 2018 Census.
SAMPLING FRAME: to carry out this study, a methodology called dual frames was implemented, that is, two sampling frames (fixed line
and generation of cell numbers), to select people. The telephone coverage in the 5 large cities, according to the DANE census, is 85%. Households
with a telephone line are: Bogotá 1,519,354, Medellín 609,664, Cali 383,674, Barranquilla 122,498 and Bucaramanga 112,276. Total 2,747,466. For the cell line frame,
features a frame of random numbers generated by Invamer.
SAMPLE SIZE AND DISTRIBUTION: 1,200 surveys (800 fixed telephony and 400 cellular telephony) distributed as follows: Bogotá 400 surveys (240
fixed telephony and 160 cellular telephony), Medellín 200 surveys (140 fixed telephony and 60 cellular telephony), Cali 200 surveys (140 fixed telephony and 60 cellular telephony),
Barranquilla 200 surveys (140 landlines and 60 cell phones) and Bucaramanga 200 surveys (140 landlines and 60 cell phones); in addition to the distribution by
socio-economic levels proportional to the population. To adjust the total sample to the real size of the universe of each city, factors of
weighing. SAMPLING SYSTEM: a probability sampling was carried out in stages depending on the type of sampling frame. For the fixed telephony framework, a systematic random selection of households with fixed telephony was first carried out and subsequently a simple random selection of a person aged 18 years or older was carried out. For the cell phone framework, a random selection of people over 18 years of age was carried out. MARGIN OF ERROR: the margins of error within 95% confidence limits are: for the total sample of the 5 cities +/- 2.83%; for the total sample from Bogotá +/- 4.90%; for the totals of the samples from Medellín, Cali, Barranquilla and Bucaramanga +/- 6.93%. DATA COLLECTION TECHNIQUE: computer-assisted telephone surveys (CATI). DATA COLLECTION DATE: from January 7 to 23, 2021. NUMBER OF INTERVIEWERS: 83. VALIDATION METHOD: 100% of the surveys carried out were reviewed and 15% of them were supervised. TOPICS TO WHICH IT REFERS: public opinion on rulers, characters, institutions and current events.
RESPONSE RATE: the response rate for landlines was 17.18% and for cell phones it was 9.10%. This rate reflects the number of sample units that
completed the questionnaire, as a percentage of the number of eligible sample units. CHARACTERS OR INSTITUTIONS FOR WHICH IT WAS INQUIRED: refer to the questionnaire. SPECIFIC QUESTIONS ASKED: refer to the questionnaire. WEIGHTING FACTOR: It is the figure that, acting as a multiplier, allows the sample data to be brought to the population, that is, to expand the sample. In order to combine the samples of fixed and cellular telephony, questions that allow you to classify the respondents should be included in the questionnaire, in order to determine if the respondent could have been selected in the other sampling frame and thus obtain the inclusion probability ???????? of each person. This probability is calculated from
as follows: • For landline users: ???????????????????? = # ???????????????????? ???????? ???????? ℎ???????????????? ∗
???????????????????????????????? # ???????? ???????? ???????????????????????????? ???????????????? ???????????????????????????????? # ???????? ???????? ???????????????????? ∗ 1 # ???????? ???????????????????????????????? ???????????? ℎ????????????????
• For cell phone users: ???????????????????????????????? = # ???????????????????????????????????? ???????? ???????? ???????????????????????????? ∗
???????????????????????????????? # ???????? ???????? ???????????????????????????? ???????????????????????????????? ???????? ???????????????????????????????? • For dual users: ???????? = ???????????????????? + ????????????????????????????????
The basic expansion factor is the inverse of the probability of inclusion of the person. After this, a calibration of this factor is carried out according to the Census
2018.

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