Marzuki said, initially BMKG predicted the peak of the rainy season in an area, for example between January-February, then followed by the peak of dengue fever. “That was when the initial conclusion was around,” he said in the webinar ‘Anticipating the Spread of DHF in the Middle of the COVID-19 Pandemic by Using Climate Information for Health’, Tuesday (15/9/2020).
Then, according to Marzuki, his party was assisted by experts from the Bandung Institute of Technology (ITB) to explore whether the peak incidence of dengue was correlated with the peak of the rainy season. “We are assisted by the R&D team and then ITB expert experts to explore the data we have juxtaposed with the incidence of dengue fever. Is it from the climate data, for example the rainy day, which is very influential, or the temperature, or rainfall, or humidity and so on. . ” (Read it too: The highest in Indonesia, DBD in Buleleng Reaches 2,677 cases)
“So all the elements of the climate that might describe us are trying to analyze, we connect them to have scientific reasons, so that they can be linked to the incidence of dengue at one time,” said Marzuki.
In fact, said Marzuki, all elements of climate have almost a relationship with the incidence of dengue. “However, what seems to be the most consistent of all is humidity. Indeed there is a strong correlation with air humidity and this is very consistent. This means that outbreaks were found to be correlated with humidity thresholds. Then what needs to be underlined is that cases of DHF increased above the baseline level when humidity was present. that’s above 75%, “he said.
Marzuki said, based on these scientific facts, the BMKG has prepared several steps or plans in terms of mitigation. “Of course also with adaptation in the long term. What if, for example, we compile a prediction system that can predict dengue based on climatic conditions,” he said. (Read it too: Ministry of Health Records 84,734 DHF cases until September, Java Island is the highest)