Wednesday, 12 Dec 2018

In the victory of Larry Hogan: The numbers behind a GOP victory in a blue wave

Maryland's Governor Larry Hogan on Tuesday won the highest number of votes among the governorship candidates in state history, a victory that makes him the Republic's second state-run executive in the state. to be re-elected. Although Hogan lost to Democrat Ben Jalous among voters aged 29 and under, according to a poll of voters led by Fox News and the Associated Press, he was propelled to victory by older voters, political independents and the Democrats who have crossed to support him. they ousted several Republicans. Before leaving with his wife, Yumi, for a week-long trip to Jamaica, Hogan told the press that he was able to withstand Maryland's blue wave by being a governor "for all citizens ". He has won 66% of independent state voters who do it. not the party survey and 31% of Democrats and independents with a democratic tendency, showed the survey of voters. "He cleaned up the Republicans, beat Ben Jealous among the independents and dismissed enough Democrats," said Mileah Kromer, professor of political science at Goucher College in Baltimore. "It's the Hogan coalition." Jealous – whose campaign strategy was based on increasing voter turnout – received 58% of the votes cast for the first time, 56% of voters aged 18 to 29 and 50% of voters aged 30 to 44. According to the survey of 3,873 electors who voted or were considered to be eligible to vote in the last days before the elections and on polling day, only 2% of voters under the age of 30 accounted for only 12%.
Lore Rosenthal, of the Greenbelt, watches the results on television at the Baltimore Hippodrome Theater during an election night for Democratic nominee for the governorship, Ben Jealous. (George Salwan / The Washington Post) "It's not surprising," said Kromer. "Jealous's campaign was based on the recruitment of unlikely voters. But it is the older, more usual voters who run reliably in the midterm elections. "[[[[Hogan won easily despite a "blue wave". Could the national scene be next?]Hogan won voters aged 45 and over – a group that accounted for more than three-fifths of the mid-term electorate – with a 25-point margin over Jealous. He beat Jealous among all levels of education. And he won 63% of the votes cast by the men, against 36% for the jealous and 50% of the votes cast by the women, against 48% for the jealous ones. The governor also narrowly defeated Jealous among unionized households, winning 51 percent of the vote, compared to 49 percent for Jealous, the survey revealed. Public security unions backed Hogan in the race, while other groups of workers supported Jealous mainly. Jealous and his candidate, Susan Turnbull, collected 917,982 votes, a goal of less than $ 1 million, but more than the 884,400 that Hogan and Boyd won in the upset victory of Democrat Anthony G. Brown four years ago.
Governor Larry Hogan arrives to speak at a press conference at the Maryland State House in Annapolis the day after the victory of a second term. (Patrick Semansky / AP) The total participation rate in Maryland exceeded 2.1 million, a record for a mid-term election. Hogan again lost the traditionally Democratic strongholds of Montgomery County, Prince George's County and Baltimore, but he
Lieutenant Governor Rutherford significantly increased the number of votes won in these jurisdictions compared to 2014. In Montgomery County, where Hogan actively campaigned, he won 45% of the vote, up from 37% four years ago. . In Prince George's, he gained 28%, up from 15% previously. In Baltimore, he won 32% of the vote, compared with 22% previously. The only other jurisdiction that Hogan lost in 2014, Charles County, was tight to the advantage of the Republican this time. Among African Americans, who have long been supported by Democrats in Maryland, Hogan won 28% of the vote, according to the Fox-AP survey, compared to 71% for Jealous, former president of the NAACP. Hogan's support among black voters has increased dramatically during his first term, according to a Washington Post-University of Maryland study last month. Jealous and Hogan have moved closer to Latino voters, with Democrats getting 51% of the vote, compared to 48% for Hogan, according to the voters survey. Latinos in Maryland represent 10% of the state's population, but only 4% of the total, according to the survey. Kromer explained that part of Hogan's success with traditionally Democratic voters was due to his multi-million dollar war chest, which allowed him to flood the airwaves with commercials creating contrasts between him and President Trump, deeply unpopular among the Democrats of Maryland. Republicans with less money do not have the same opportunity. Michael Youngblood, a Democrat from Prince George, said he was willing to vote for Hogan because the governor "did not impasse on Trump". "It sounds very rare," said Youngblood, 66, who voted Tuesday at Reid Temple AME Baptist Church in Glenn Dale. "This gives me the impression that he is not afraid of the establishment." Health care was the subject most frequently cited by Marylanders as "the most important problem facing our country". Of the 28% of residents who cited it as the main problem, 59% voted for Jealous, who campaigned on "Medicare for all". Forty percent chose Hogan. Those who feel that their family is "falling behind" have made a financial bankruptcy for Jealous, with 57% of the votes for the Democratic candidate and 41% for Hogan. In Baltimore County, Rob Wanner, a political independent, voted for Hogan because "things are going well and the state government is working effectively," he said. "He's my man half in and half out – he's not afraid to compromise," said Wanner, 64, who wore a t-shirt with the inscription "Clowns Left" , crazy right, I'm stuck in the middle. " [Hogan shuns Trump. But Trump-loving Marylanders love Hogan anyway.] Respondents said voters who wanted to voice their opposition to Trump supported Jealous by a margin of two to one. Similarly, among voters who said they had a "very unfavorable" opinion of Trump, 35% voted for Hogan, while 64% opted for Jealous. Of those who had a "somewhat unfavorable" opinion of Trump, 73% voted for Hogan and 27% voted for Jealous. At the same time, Maryland voters, who greatly value the president, love Hogan, even though the governor has often moved away from Trump and sometimes criticized him. Hogan won 95% of Marylanders who have a "fairly favorable" view of Trump and 93% of those who have a "very favorable" view of the president, the survey reveals. Republican Gilbert Potter of Parkville, Maryland, said on Tuesday that he thought Hogan had struck the right balance in terms of taking distance from Trump, but not to alienate Republican voters. Potter, who said he supported Trump's agenda even though he sometimes questioned some of his actions, sometimes said that Hogan was "exaggerating" by criticizing the president. "But that's what he has to do to win: it's a very blue state," he said. In his victory speech on Tuesday in Annapolis, Hogan specifically thanked the Democrats and independents who supported him, saying, "Let me assure you that I will continue to govern all Marylanders." Lynh Bui and Scott Clement contributed to this report. .

%d bloggers like this: