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In the worst case for coronavirus, shortage of medicine

At the moment, the strategic reserve of inputs that Mexico has would only reach 5% of Covid-19 patients in an epidemic scenario.

This is the most serious scenario projected by the Ministry of Health (Ssa) and it would be equivalent to 300 thousand people getting sick at the same time as a coronavirus and 20% of the patients requiring hospitalization.

“Based on the estimate we have of scenario 3, the current strategic reserve does not cover even 5% of the need, so it is important to have the initial acquisition, for a reserve that does respond,” said Ruy López Ridaura, director General of the National Center for Preventive Programs and Disease Control (Cenaprece).

At this time, the Ministry of Health is working on the identification and calculation of the need for inputs for the following scenarios: 2, community dispersion, which could be reached between 40 and 50 days from the registration of the first case, and 3 , of epidemic, which would be reached between two and three weeks after reaching the second.

Now we are in scenario 1, which is imported cases and in which they are accounted for by tens.

At the moment there are sufficient inputs in the strategic reserve to cover 100% of the cases that occur in scenario 1 and there are inputs for most of the states that enter a scenario 2. It is considered that as the contingency advances, the states They will be entering the different scenarios, but not all at the same time.

The inputs consist of personal protective equipment aimed at medical personnel, both for sampling and for interventions. These are surgical-type mouthguards, masks or stiffer mouthpieces, gowns and masks for sampling.

Also personal protection and biosafety equipment, medicines, laboratory reagents, vehicles for sampling, hospital equipment, as well as supplies for hand hygiene and disinfection that are needed, such as antibacterial gel.

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