late data, chaos Regions. The risk is to reopen in the dark

There is a risk that the government had not calculated: reopening in the dark in the country starting from Monday 18. The now famous algorithm that decrees which territories are at risk COVID-19 and they can be sentenced to return to the most rigorous lockdown, it cannot be applied because the Regions have not yet communicated all the data necessary to measure the progress of the epidemic. On the basis of those analyzes, it is also necessary to decide how and which activities to authorize, whether to restart shops, restaurants and transfers, but the data is missing. And so the so-called “report cards” that the Ministry of Health must elaborate on the basis of 21 indicators that had been meticulously listed in the decree of Hope cannot be drawn up.
Yet, at the same time, the government has already announced that from Monday they will be able to return to rolling up the shutters, bars and restaurants, hairdressers and barbers, retail trade and bathing establishments. A chaos that Palazzo Chigi had not foreseen and that is putting the executive in fibrillation. It is no coincidence that the usual Friday press conference of the Higher Institute of Health was canceled today. Because? There are no risk parameters divided by territories.

IN DEPTH

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Virus: late data, chaos Regions. The risk is to reopen in the dark

To whom the origin of this chaos is attributed was written in a letter – viewed by The messenger – signed by Roberto Speranza and Francesco Boccia. “There are – write the ministers of Health and Regional Affairs – signs of criticality in the availability of data that measure the size of the resilience of the health services in charge in the event of a resurgence of the Covid-19 epidemic which in the current week is not fully assessable , given the difficulty in the information circuit between the central level, the Regions and the autonomous provinces ».

In a nutshell: many governors last night had not yet sent their territory’s health plan in case the curve of the virus were to rise. The other day, an executive from the Ministry of Health explained: “The 21 indicators are demanding because the Regions must guarantee daily flows, not always easily obtainable by the prevention departments”. Sometimes the IT platform that processes this data is missing.

This is why three days after the great return to Italy’s (almost) normal life – from the point of view of mobility and trade – the government’s scheme is still missing with the announced territorial differences based on the required requirements. The letter was sent to Stefano Bonaccini, governor of Emilia-Romagna, as president of the State-Regions Conference. With a recommendation to send to fellow governors to “take any appropriate action to promptly complete the implementation of the data as requested”.
The defaulting regions last night were different: from Piedmont to Sicily, passing through Campania and Calabria. Without this material theoretically the government cannot authorize Monday’s reopenings, despite having announced them. There is therefore the risk, on the one hand, of a dark (dangerous) debut and, on the other, the reaction of all sectors that are already projected on Monday. But there is more: the 21 indicators represent an alarm system that triggers if some region sees the epidemic restarting and therefore lockdown in that territory becomes necessary.

We must keep our guard up because if you consult the Civil Protection board issued yesterday, there are indicators that indicate that the effect of the first days of Phase 2 is still unclear: we have returned to almost a thousand infections (992) of which the half in Lombardy. Signals that should push the government to “differentiated openings based on the algorithm that we will set up on Thursday to put the governors in a position to decide what and how to open,” they said in recent days from Palazzo Chigi. But precisely the possibility of carrying out the verification is lacking, because a part of data deemed “fundamental” has not yet been sent to Rome. In the evening many Regions have regularized, but the report card is not yet there.

Then I set off blindly and the Technical Scientific Committee (CTS) took note of it yesterday during the daily meeting. By now the reopening machine, the scientists explain, has in fact already started and cannot be stopped, under penalty of a popular uprising. Therefore they did not raise any exceptions to the government which will decide on the modalities of the second round of reopenings over the weekend. But the men of the CTS do not intend to abdicate their role as vigilantes of the health situation, as they have done so far. The contagion curve is rising, not homogeneously but in a leopard spot and last night, during conversations, more than one would have signaled a new risk outbreak in Molise. There will therefore be constant monitoring that will continue in the next two weeks, with a deadline already identified: Thursday 28th compared to the other reopenings on June 1st, including the likely shifts between regions, expected by many. That day, the CTS and the ISS will make the “coupon” as they say, of the situation, with a widespread recognition of the various areas and areas. This will mean that if the R0 index were to rise above the safety level of 0.4-0.5, only the areas that have become new outbreaks would be closed. Also yesterday on cts he would take care of the summer camps, since there are many requests but they would have excluded advising to reopen them.

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