All the polls announce a political "earthquake" in France, on the occasion of the European elections. The extreme right of Marine Le Pen is listed as possible great winner, leading the first game in France. Emmanuel Macron confirms his continental political isolation. The historical left, socialist and communist, sink before the rise of the extreme left populist.
All the polls of the last two weeks affirm that National Grouping (AN, ex-National Front, FN), the party of Marine Le Pen, can get between 23 and 24% of the national votes, becoming the most voted party , the first game of France. The French extreme right has already won spectacularly the European elections of 2014 (with 25% of the vote). Five years later, the same triumph seems more striking, when other parties to the right or extreme right of the European People's Party (EPP), announce a very strong ultra-conservative wave throughout Europe.
In second place, according to all the polls, La República En Marcha (LREM, reformist liberal), the party of Emmanuel Macron, has stagnated around 21 or 22% of the intentions to vote. A difference of only 1 or 2 points, but highly symbolic, if it is confirmed that the president's party is relegated to a second place.
LREM seems a victim of Macron's personal isolation, throughout Europe. Nathalie Loiseau, the head of Macron's party list, fails to be visible. Exministra of European affairs, highly knowledgeable of the "administrative kitchen" of the EU, fails to take off or give visibility to the presidential project of Renaissance of Europe. Renaissance, with a capital R. Ultra ambitious project that has not managed to arouse great interest outside or within France.
Save yourself from burning
The Republicans (LR, traditional right) continues to be victims of the political withdrawal of Nicolas Sarkozy, replaced by aspiring leaders who can not get out of the hole of a modest 12% of voting intentions. It is a historical setback of traditional French conservatism, which had eminent personalities, from Valery Giscard d'Estaing to Jacques Chirac. On the left, socialists and communists run the risk of historical collapse. The PS barely has 5% of intentions to vote. The worst possible result of the history of French socialism, which had European personalities of the highest flights, such as François Mitterrand or Jacques Delors.
The PCF barely has 3% of voting intentions. French communism is installed in the ghetto of insignificant small groups. There will be no French communists in the new European Parliament (EP), elected on the 26th.
On the left, the only party that is saved from sinking is La France Insumisa (LF, extreme left populist), whose leader, Jean-Luc Mélenchon, has tried to ride the car of the franchise of the yellow vests, where families of extreme cohabitation left and far right. In the final stretch of the campaign, LFI has been the victim of a spectacular crisis: several of its cadres have left the extreme left party to support the extreme right of Le Pen. Deep political tragedy: all the lefts, together, "weigh" less than the extreme right of Le Pen.
Europa Ecología / Los Verdes (EELV) is a federation of environmental families that are quoted with 7% of voting intentions. Alone, isolated, without great aspirations, the French ecologists would be happy if they managed to avoid a catastrophe.
There are still three groups of ultra right, France Standing (FeP), The Patriots (LP), Popular Republican Union (UPR), which together, between 6 and 8% of votes, stolen to the far right of Le Pen.
To the far left, two other groups, Labor Struggle (LO) and Generation, barely add up to 3 or 4% of voting intentions. Votes stolen from the traditional lefts, fallen in a catastrophic crisis.
That exceptional fragmentation of the French political landscape seems to announce an earthquake or a very profound change, at least.
All traditional political parties, left or right, have been installed in an unprecedented crisis. And the new parties do not have any exceptional support.
Emmanuel Macron has devoured all the traditional center and right parties. But it does not have massive national support. His European ambitions have not found the expected echo in Germany, which does not share the European projects of the French president.
Marine Le Pen has recentrated the extreme right that his father organized around the late National Front (FN). And it has created a new party, National Grouping (AN), which can become the first party in France, with an anti-European, anti-liberal, anti-capitalist program, campaigning against all the pillars of the European Union (EU). Large beneficiaries of the old Common Agricultural Policy (CAP), farmers and the French middle classes do not share such hostility against Europe.
Several sociologists and scholars begin to affirm that France is living a great mutation, turned into an "archipelago" of cultural communities that do not always understand each other. The final stretch of the European elections seems to confirm, in any case, that France is changing its political model. . (tagsToTranslate) European