BMCE Capital Research has just released its biannual document entitled “Forecast 2020-2021”, which includes projections of achievements, in 2020 and 2021, of the 40 main companies listed on the Casablanca Stock Exchange.
In its biannual document “Forecast 2020-2021”, BMCE Capital Research unveils its analysts’ projections on the 2020 and 2021 achievements of its scope 40. The analysts have therefore readjusted their forecasts with regard to the half-yearly achievements impacted by the Covid crisis -19, showing that the net result, excluding contributions to the Covid-19 fund, should register a limited decrease of 3.7% to 23.3 billion dirhams. BMCE Capital Research also forecasts a decline in the turnover of the 40 main companies listed on the Casablanca Stock Exchange, representing more than 90% of the market capitalization, from 3.7% to 208.4 billion dirhams in 2021. A decline which, underlines the BMCE Capital Research document, follows the poor behavior of the industrial rating, partially offset by the improvement in banks’ NBI, when it was to recover by + 6.4% to 221.6 MDH in 2021. “A profit capacity of the BMCE Capital Research hedging universe should deteriorate by 18.7% to MAD 19.7 billion between 2019 and 2020”, notes the document which maintains that the profit capacity should recover by 34.4% to set at 26.4 billion dirhams in 2021.
Same story at Upline Research
In addition, these forecasts are in line with the recent analysis by the Upline Research group which revealed a 4.9% drop in aggregate revenues of listed companies at the end of the first half of 2020, to stand at 113,449.9 MDH, due to the economic situation marked by a quarter of confinement. The profit mass thus deteriorated by 49.8% to reach MAD 7,967.5 million, reports Upline Research. The latter also indicates that of the 68 companies that published their results, 66.2% posted declining sales achievements. This contraction, underlines the same source, is mainly due to non-financials which saw their turnover fall by 10% to 70,440.8 million dirhams. For their part, non-financials saw their income increase by 4.9% to 43,009.1 million dirhams. By sector, according to the same source, 14 out of 21 contributed negatively to the evolution of the aggregate business volume. However, the most significant declines were recorded by the real estate sector, with an underperformance of 57.2% to 1,577.7 MDH linked in particular to the poor commercial form of the three listed properties. As for the sectors of construction & construction materials and oil & gas, they posted respective contractions in their revenues of around 21.9% and 20.9%. In addition, according to the analysis of Upline Research, the banking sector emerged as the first contributor to the evolution of aggregate turnover of the rating with 1.8 points (+ 6.7% to 33,581, 3 million dirhams of sector net banking income), in connection with the performance of market activities in a context of falling key rates. Next comes the Mining sector, which shows + 6.1% to MAD 3,007.8 million after the commercial achievements of Managem and Telecommunications.
Mariama Ndoye / Eco Inspirations