Narciso Michavila analysis: 233,000 PSOE voters moved to Vox


8 million
They are the voters who have changed their vote between April 28 and November 10, mainly towards the abstention that has grown by 2 million voters. The main supplier of new abstentionists has been Citizens, with one million, followed by the Socialist Party.

Block Draw
For the fourth time in four years, the left and right parties, excluding nationalists, have tied in votes: the greater abstention of the right led by Cs is compensated with a slight transfer of votes from left to right.

233,000 from PSOE to Vox
They are approximately the electors who voted for Pedro Sánchez in April and have now opted for Vox. The analysis of the results by sections confirms the tracking data of GAD3 for ABC.

43 nationalist seats
Are the seats or
held by the nationalist and regionalist parties, it is a historical record motivated by a territorial tension that puts territorial claims on political ideology.


ERC manages to stop the CUP which, two weeks before and in full altercations in the Catalan municipalities, guaranteed four seats. As the violent pressure dropped, the CUP was losing support until finally achieving two minutes for Barcelona. This result leaves Esquerra room to cause an advance of elections in the Parliament.

Bildu snatches a seat from the Socialist Party in Navarra by getting a vote from Geroa Bai. The useful vote will allow EH Bildu to have its own parliamentary group for the first time in its history.

163 votes were those that separated the PP from obtaining a seat in Biscay. Finally, the revision of the provisional count and the vote arrived from abroad allow the PP to have a Basque representative in the Congress of Deputies.

Vox, shot with Sánchez
3.6 million are the votes that Vox has obtained against the 47,000 that it obtained before Sanchez came to power. It is not, as their leaders claim, "the greatest political deed in the history of democracy": in the 2015 generals, Podemos went from 0 to 5.2 million votes on their first election date. If at that time we affirmed that there was not so much electoral space to the left of the PSOE, we can now affirm that there is not either to the right of the PP.

Deputies who dance
A test of the narrow margin by which the seats to the Congress have been lost or won, is to verify that the winning party, the Socialist, has lost a seat in six constituencies, including Madrid and Barcelona, ​​which has compensated with the gain in another three : Huelva, Huesca and Tarragona.


30 senators are those who have lost the PSOE, once consolidated the last by Valladolid, and with it the absolute majority of the Senate. The key, as in Congress, will be the nationalist formations.


150 are the seats that Tezanos assigned to his party, defending that his survey, paid with the taxpayer's money, was the only one rigorous. The contrast between the estimate made by GAD3 on the same field dates as the CIS shows that the manipulation of Tezanos was more significant than the impact of the "process" or Franco's exhumation.

72,000: it is the number of voting interviews that Tezanos has done, this year alone, to end up making the worst electoral estimate of all those published with a deviation of 3.4 points of average deviation.

Speed ​​record
Two hours: it is the time it took to scrutinize 90% breaking all records.

Pact in 40 hours
40 hours: it is the time it took for Pedro Sánchez to agree with Iglesias showing that if a coalition government agreement was not reached in April, it is because he preferred to go to new elections.

Teruel is no longer our Ohio: traditionally the party that took the third seat of the Aragonese province ruled in Spain, being like the State of the "midwest" a good national indicator. It's not like that.

Basque Country and Galicia
As it happened in the generals of 2008, the results of 10-N anticipate good results for both the PNV in the Basque Country and the PP in Galicia. Cs would be left without representation in both parliaments. Vox would enter, at most, with a seat for Alava.

The voter does not lie
346 out of 350 were the seats assigned correctly by the "tracking" at the close of the polls, again demonstrating that the voter does not lie. .


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