Another day, another big round at the WGC-Mexico championship. I’ll explain how I feel about this event below, but for now let’s move on to the third round which included a new course record, a new top of the rankings and getting ready for what should be another fun Sunday in a year full of them.
First place – Justin Thomas (-15): He played great on this course during his career, but after a bogey on the first hole on a day when the field average was a half shot on par, things didn’t look great. So of course he played the next 16 holes in 8 before bogeying the last for a 6-under 65. It wasn’t the day’s turn (we’ll see below), but he was tied for a second-better. Since the starting point of J.T. Sunday arrived on this board, it was a lot.
Round of the day – Jon Rahm (61): Rahm took the new golf course record at the Golf Club de Chapultepec with his 10 under 61s who included an ace in the 17th hole. Incredibly, Rahm’s 61 included a bogey. Not surprisingly, it led to a tie for fourth place in the standings. The 27-hole heater on which it is located is the best in the tournament. After making the round on Friday (not Thursday but Friday) at 4 in the final, Rahm played his last 27 holes in 15 below and is suddenly four ahead. I don’t think he can support him on Sunday in the last round, but it was an absolute show.
Who can catch Thomas – Patrick Reed (-14), van Rooyen (-14), Bryson DeChambeau (-11), Rory McIlroy (-11), Jon Rahm (-11): McIlroy is obviously the most dangerous of the group, but he is also back with four guys in front of him. He remains fifth on the field from the tee to the green but his shot has fallen in the last two days. Reed looks like Thomas’s biggest threat here. It is hitting him really well for him, and he will be highly motivated because of all the chatter around him and his playing in the past few weeks.
Shot of the day: Must be Rahm’s ace, right?
Closing time: J.T. it is a closer certificate. Not everyone wants the ball late on Sunday when the air gets a little thinner (not just because of the altitude at which this golf course was built), but Thomas does. That’s why its 54-hole numbers look like this. That’s why it’s the -110 favorite, according to William Hill Sportsbook.
What a win would mean for Thomas: It would be his third of the season and eleventh in the past 38 months. His 26-year trajectory is ridiculous and I’m not sure we will fully appreciate it. This would also be his second WGC win (which will go with Bridgestone) after three consecutive top 10 here on this course, including a playoff loss to Phil Mickelson two years ago.
Mexico underestimated: Listen, I know it’s not the Riviera, but for the fourth consecutive year we have had a fantastic tournament here. The first year was Dustin Johnson against Tommy Fleetwood. Then we took Mickelson-Thomas into a playoff. Last year, D.J. lapped Rory. This year is J.T. again with an army of hunters. Interestingly, this course often causes separation at the top of the game board, which is the hallmark of a large course (which isn’t). I am confused as to how I feel about all this, besides the fact that I know I love this tournament.
Prediction for day 4: I will definitely regret it, but I will hear a Reed 66 tomorrow with Reed-Rory-Thomas ending 1-2-3.