Current Dax rate: Dax gives way slightly

Dusseldorf The German stock market starts the new trading week in a friendly manner, but slips further down the line. In afternoon trading, the leading German index Dax is down around 0.2 percent and is trading at 10,559 points.

The negative signs are increasing: According to a study, the Germans will put more money on the high edge this year. The savings rate is expected to climb to 12.5 percent this year from 10.9 percent in 2019, the economists at DZ Bank calculate. That is the highest private savings rate since 1992.

According to DZ Bank, uncertainties about job security and income prospects in particular contribute to a greater propensity to save. In return, consumption will shrink accordingly.

For example, less durable consumer goods such as cars would be bought. Private consumption in Germany is likely to fall by 2.8 percent, which would be the worst slump since reunification. The slump in consumption increases the proportion of savings in disposable income.

Overall, the disposable income of private households is expected to shrink by 1.1 percent this year, according to the DZ Bank experts. That would be the first decline since the 2009 financial crisis.

And according to the VDMA industry association, machine builders in Germany are increasingly feeling the drop in orders due to the corona crisis. In mid-April, 89 percent of the companies surveyed said they were affected by the effects of the pandemic. Overall, 45 percent of the companies report noticeable, 32 percent of those surveyed even serious order losses or cancellations.

As a result, the prices of cyclical stocks in particular are slipping. Daimler leads the list of losers with a minus of around 2.6 percent, as does the supplier Continental. In return, shares in non-cyclical companies such as the medical technology group Fresenius Medical Care (plus 3.2 percent) and the reinsurer Munich Re (plus 2.5 percent).

Investor sentiment is currently “wait and see neutral”, the possibility of a continuation of the recovery rally is limited in the short term, the risk of a setback is greater. This can also be seen in the current evaluation of the weekly Handelsblatt survey Dax-Sentiment.

Because surprisingly, the investment rate of investors is again at a relatively high level. This can also be seen from the overbought condition of the US selection index S&P 500, which rose too quickly after the price slump.

The insider barometer shows a similar picture, which analyzes the trading of Germany’s board of directors and supervisory boards in the shares of their company. Because with the recovery on the stock markets, insider buying has decreased.

The executives, who know their companies better than anyone else, go bargain hunting if they think their company’s shares on the stock market are undervalued. That is no longer so clearly the case.

Olaf Stotz, a professor at the Frankfurt School of Finance & Management, would only be able to support a new, larger rush of directors and supervisory boards to buy shares in their own companies Dax-Stands around 8500 points expected.

Look at individual values

Deutsche Bank: Germany’s largest money house is preparing for higher credit risks in the wake of the corona crisis. Actually, CEO Christian Sewing had promised a black zero in operating profit for 2020 after a billion minus in the previous year.

However, analysts now expect the bank to face a loss of around two billion euros. The share is down 1.8 percent.

Ceconomy: The restrictions on public life cause Saturn / Mediamarkt’s mother to plummet sales and lose quarterly. These numbers come as no surprise, a trader said. Nevertheless, the share of the electronics retailer loses 3.6 percent.

Philips: The Dutch medical technology group posted a significant drop in profits in the first quarter due to the virus crisis. Philips cited a drop in demand for electric toothbrushes, shavers and other health products as a result of the virus crisis as the reason for the decline. However, the share price rose 5.9 percent.

Look at other asset classes

The fall in oil prices cannot be stopped: In the afternoon, a barrel (159 liters) of the North Sea Brent cost $ 26.73, down 4.9 percent. The price of a barrel of the American grade WTI dropped temporarily by around 40 percent to around eleven dollars, the lowest level in 21 years.

While the slump in demand due to the corona crisis continues, concerns have recently increased on the US market that the oil deposits there may be reaching their capacity limits.

The slump in prices for US oil has thus amounted to almost 75 percent since the beginning of the year. Concerns about crude oil storage caused prices to plummet compared to North Sea oil, where discounts last year were 68 percent.

As market watchers from the Australia & New Zealand Banking Group reported, inventory levels in Cushing, Oklahoma, have increased by a whopping 50 percent since the beginning of March. “We still have hope of a recovery at the end of the year,” said the experts.

The EU summit on Thursday with the discussion on corona bonds has already on Monday impact on the bond market. The yield spread between German and Italian government bonds continues to increase and is now 2.32 percentage points. The yield on ten-year bonds is currently approaching the monthly highs reached last week at 1.940 percent.

This “spread” has become a kind of fever curve in the Italian economy. This risk premium reached a record level of 3.3 percentage points in 2018 when the EU Commission rejected the draft budget for the second time in November.

“Residential properties could emerge from the crisis as winners”

In any case, the Italian bond market is facing another test at the end of the week when S&P Global reviews Italy’s BBB rating with a negative outlook.

What the chart technique says

Corrections within the overall trend very often end at the 50 percent mark. Currently related to the Dax, this means that the downward trend has so far been from the record high in mid-February at 13,795 points to the low point in mid-March at 8255 points.

The 50 percent mark is accordingly at 11,025 points. With the increase to 10,820 points last Tuesday, the index of this brand has already approached.

Should the Frankfurt benchmark break this 11,025 point mark, the next resistance would be at 11,266 points, the August 2019 interim low.

The important resistance zone is in the range of 10,279 to 10,391 points. From the first-mentioned brand, the leading index started its rally in December 2018, which continued until a record high in February 2020. The brand was “confirmed” last Tuesday because the index ended trading right there.

Just below that there are so-called price gaps for which there were no quotes this year. The last gap would be closed at a Dax level of 10,097 points.

Here is the page with the DAX course, here is the current tops & flops in the Dax. Current Short sales of investors can be found in our Short sales database.

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Dax current: Dax is giving way significantly – cyclical stocks come under pressure

The release of new data illustrates the extent of the corona crisis. The savings rate is increasing and consumption is likely to shrink significantly. .

Haniel with less sales in 2019

Dusseldorf The turnover of the family equity company Haniel in Duisburg decreased by three percent to 4.5 billion euros in 2019. According to the company, Thursday’s operating profit of EUR 255 million was 15 percent below the previous year’s figure. At that time it was still 301 million euros.

By contrast, after massive write-downs on Ceconomy’s financial participation, earnings before taxes rose from minus EUR 475 million in the previous year to EUR 175 million in 2019. The after-tax result rose from minus 848 million euros in the previous year to 130 million euros in 2019.

According to the annual report, the annual surplus was 176 million euros. Due to the profit carried forward from 2018, the balance sheet profit was 240 million euros. The Management Board therefore proposes to keep the dividend for the almost 700 shareholders at 60 million and carry forward a profit of 180 million in 2020. Because, as with all companies, it is currently far from clear how the financial year will end.

The corona crisis will affect all business areas, Haniel said, but not all to the same extent. Nevertheless, due to the financial situation, they see themselves well equipped to master the crisis.

Haniel’s CEO Thomas Schmidt is quoted as saying that Haniel is to be brought back on a growth path. He was appointed Stephan Gemkow’s successor in July. “Last year we invested in our transformation and developed a sustainable investment approach,” says Schmidt.

Focus on megatrends in the future

Together they wanted to “realign Haniel’s culture, portfolio and leadership”. The company, founded in 1756, plans to focus on megatrends and the sustainability goals of the United Nations in its investments.

Earlier this week, Haniel announced that it was investing 30 million in the Gilde Healthcare V fund in the Netherlands, which focuses on medical technology, digital health and therapeutics. The company also wants to continue growing with the hygiene service provider CWS, which has been 100 percent owned by Haniel since 2019. Because it is clear that the topic of hand hygiene will continue to be important even after the corona crisis.

It looks different at the stainless steel trading and recycling company ELG. As market observers report, all options for the company are currently being examined. A sale would also be an option. ELG’s sales fell by 13 percent to EUR 1.58 billion, the operating result by 78 percent to EUR 7 million.

Haniel already announced last year that it would invest 500 million euros in funds in younger companies. At the same time, Haniel had invested a total of 550 million euros, including the takeover of the remaining shares in CWS. In addition to CWS, Ceconomy and ELG, the mattress cover manufacturer Bekaert Deslee, the fish processing specialist Optimar, the mechanical engineering company Rovema and the office supplies company TAKKT also belong to the group. However, the latter is only around 50 percent.

In November Haniel sold a further 12.5 percent of the shares in the Metro trading group to the EP Global Commerce company of the Czech investor Daniel Kretinsky. Haniel therefore still holds around 2.8 percent as a financial investment on the metro.

At the end of 2019, Haniel had cash and cash equivalents of EUR 1.7 billion to develop further business areas. Doreen Nowotne will then stand alongside Thomas Schmidt. She has a lot of expertise in the investment business. At the end of April, the current Chairman of the Supervisory Board, Franz Markus Haniel, will hand over his office to the first woman and non-family members.

More: This is how companies and the self-employed get emergency aid and loans.

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These companies are the winners and losers of the corona crisis

Ventilator from Drägerwerk

The company benefits from the rapidly increasing demand for medical technology.


(Photo: dpa)

Düsseldorf, Frankfurt, Munich Many listed companies are particularly hard hit by the coronavirus pandemic and the associated economic standstill. Only a few benefit. If the situation normalizes, the flights of fancy will soon be over – but not for everyone. We present three winners and three losers of the crisis.

Drägerwerk: In demand medical technology

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The corona crash destroyed 19 trillion euros on the stock exchange

Bull and bear in front of the Frankfurt stock exchange

Historically unique losses in global equity markets.

(Photo: Oliver Ruether / laif)

Dusseldorf The money could be used to repay all of Europe’s public debt, and there would still be five trillion euros left: the 50,805 listed companies worldwide lost 19.4 trillion euros in just six weeks, according to Handelsblatt calculations. In such a short time, this decline is historically unique.

The courses worldwide lost 24 percent, in Germany the 755 listed companies were hit even harder with a loss of almost 30 percent. All local companies together currently cost 1.4 trillion euros. Alone Apple and Microsoft reach a total market value of 1.95 trillion euros.

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The corona crisis is causing German traders to exist

Düsseldorf, Frankfurt The drama speaks practically from every word. “The corona crisis and the associated official closings are an existential threat for retailers in Germany,” warns the management of Galeria Karstadt Kaufhof in an internal letter that is available to the Handelsblatt.

Covid-19 also means “a very, very big challenge” for the own company and the approximately 28,000 jobs associated with it. Every week Galeria Karstadt Kaufhof loses “more than 80 million euros in sales”.

A letter that the managing directors of Kik, Tedi, Takko, Woolworth and Roller wrote to Federal Minister of Economics Peter Altmaier a week ago sounds no less threatening. “As a result of the dramatic changes in the political environment, our economic existence will soon be at stake, and with it several million jobs in Germany,” says the joint letter.

Traders complain that the industry is currently the center of attention again. The trade, and above all the non-food trade, was “neglected and without sufficient expertise”.

Because numerous retailers in Germany have had to close their branch network, there is an alarming mood in the industry. Because a large part of the trade relies on the stationary business, e-commerce usually only makes up a small part of the turnover.

The online share in German retail across all product categories is just eleven percent. For many retailers, this means that most of the sales are lost due to the corona crisis.

This puts the business model in distress for some. Since many costs continue to run, but there is no revenue, there is a lack of liquidity, for example to pay the claims of suppliers.

A frequently used model is to agree payment terms of around three months with suppliers. The dealer can then pay the bills from the sales in normal times.

Euler Hermes responded

But times are no longer normal. That’s why many retailers are now negotiating with their suppliers to extend payment terms. The main commercial credit insurer, Euler Hermes, has already responded to facilitate these negotiations.

This means that customers can extend the payment terms with their suppliers by up to 60 days until the end of May – without having to consult Euler Hermes again.

graphic

In order to survive in the increasingly acute situation, the dealers also grab every straw. Short-time work has already been applied for practically across the board in order to reduce personnel costs. Investments are largely reduced, rental payments are held back.

However, it is already becoming clear that ultimately all of this might not be enough. That is why more and more large retailers are applying for government aid in the form of a loan from the KfW state bank.

KfW assumes up to 80 percent of the risk for large companies with sales of 50 million euros or more, and up to 90 percent for smaller companies. The rest of the risk must be taken over by the respective house banks.

The dealer Ceconomy With its chains Media Markt and Saturn, for example, 20,000 employees in Germany have already sent short-time work and checked every means to protect liquidity. “However, it is currently completely unclear how long the phase will take before our normal business operations will resume,” said a Ceconomy spokeswoman.

“That’s why we decided to apply for additional KfW financing.” We are talking about a possible loan of around two billion euros. Ceconomy has neither confirmed nor denied the sum. In corporate circles, however, it is said that this is a financing framework that does not have to be fully exploited.

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Suspension of rental payments: Adidas outrages customers

Munich, Dusseldorf It was the best year in our history, ”Kasper Rorsted boasted in mid-March when he presented the results for 2019. He confidently added: “We kept what we promised.” Adidas-Chef is rarely at a loss for powerful words – including a clear compass.

And that is exactly why he and his company have now got into a very special shitstorm: When the corona crisis also hit Herzogenaurach, the Dane was forced to suspend the rent payments from his shops, wherever this is now legally possible. Despite billions in reserves. Rorsted was certain of outrage.

Like Adidas, many German and international groups are now doing it. All of their stores are closed due to the pandemic, so they want to cut costs as quickly as possible. Local rivals too puma does not want to transfer the rent for the time being, as well as chain stores like Deichmann with 1,500 shops in this country, HM with 460 shops in the Federal Republic as well as the electronics chain Mediamarkt and Saturn.

But no company is criticized for this decision as much as the sneaker manufacturer Adidas. A storm of outrage culminated on Twitter, which was by no means carried only by young trendsetters. “I always thought that managers also had social responsibility,” said automotive expert Ferdinand Dudenhöffer. Such “wild west capitalism” would make companies an enemy: “Terrible.”

Politicians such as Federal Minister of Justice Christine Lambrecht also regulated Rorsted: “If financially strong companies simply no longer pay their rents, this is indecent and unacceptable,” she said in Berlin. The Corona Aid Laws provide no basis for this. It continues to apply: “Of course, tenants have to pay their rent. If they actually experience serious payment difficulties as a result of the crisis, they can only be terminated for a limited period. “

And Minister of Labor Hubertus Heil said in the Handelsblatt interview: “I think Adidas’ behavior is irresponsible and I have no understanding for it. Adidas has made high profits in the past few years. “Now everyone should shoulder the crisis together, and nobody should duck away.

It is true that landlords cannot terminate the lease in the period from April 1, 2020 to June 30, 2020, provided that the rental debt is based on the effects of the Covid 19 pandemic. In principle, however, the tenant’s obligation to pay the rent remains.

What particularly annoys consumers on social networks: Adidas is very healthy and is now relieving the burden of the crisis on others – at least that is the accusation. Indeed, the brand with the three stripes was last shiny. The profit climbed last year by twelve percent to a good 1.9 billion euros.

It only affects 26 Adidas stores in Germany

As of December 31, the company had almost 900 million euros in cash minus all debts. The dividend should therefore increase by 15 percent, and Kasper Rorsted plans to distribute a total of EUR 800 million to the shareholders. CFO Harm Ohlmeyer also announced a share buyback two and a half weeks ago, value: up to one billion euros.

In the meantime, however, the situation has changed dramatically, Rorsted argues. Business is still reasonably normal in only three countries worldwide: China, South Korea and Japan. In Europe, North America, Latin America, many emerging markets and parts of Asia, however, the stores are closed. There, however, the group generates 60 percent of sales in normal times.

But that’s not all: there are only 26 stores in Germany, which are mainly rented out by large companies. Only four contracts affect private individuals, and these are exempt from the deferral, the group said on request. The landlords concerned, especially real estate companies and insurance companies, are very cooperative.

The thing has nothing to do with the many thousands of sports retailers through which Adidas sells its shirts, shorts and shoes in this country. Adidas has a total of 2500 stores worldwide. The deferral of the rent is also just one of many measures that Adidas must take as a precaution to protect the company and its 60,000 employees.

Puma, number three in the sporting goods industry, is similar to Adidas Nike and his Franconian arch rival. The stationary trade came to a complete standstill. It is still not foreseeable when Puma can start operating again.

“There is no turnover that is necessary to pay the rent for our shops,” said a spokeswoman. As of April, the sneaker manufacturer will therefore suspend rental payments for the time being. The company will try to find a viable solution in conversation with the landlords in Germany.

Puma is hardly criticized for this, Adidas, however, very violently. The label has even faced boycott calls since the weekend.

Perfumery chain Douglas examines the use of aid programs

For example, the two SPD MEPs Katarina Barley and Timo Wölken announced on Twitter that they would no longer buy from Adidas anymore. “As a global corporation with a profit of 3.2 billion, exploiting a protection rule for tenants in need of existence is shabby,” wrote Barley.

Wölken tweeted that the behavior of the sporting goods manufacturer was “under all sow”. Other consumers expressed similar comments.

Adidas is actually still in a comparatively comfortable situation. Other companies are already in real trouble. So the electronics retailer wants Ceconomy Apply for financial aid from the state development bank KfW because of the losses in the corona crisis. Ceconomy is the parent company of Mediamarkt and Saturn.

The Düsseldorf business has been sluggish for years. The perfumery chain Douglas has also already announced that it is considering “participating in the announced national and regional aid programs for affected companies”.

However, it is not only the large corporations that suffer from the closings, but also medium-sized companies such as the fashion company Marc O’Polo from Stephanskirchen in Upper Bavaria. Their boss Dieter Holzer is also trying to cut costs quickly: “We are talking to our landlords to find economically viable solutions for both sides,” the manager told Handelsblatt on Sunday.

The German Fashion Council, the lobbying association of the German fashion industry, wants massive help from the federal government to prevent the store from dying due to the pandemic. In an extensive catalog of claims on the crisis, the organization proposes to suspend and defer rent payments. These could be secured by bank guarantees, the proposal said.

The Adidas board has temporarily cut his salary by half. CEO Rorsted only waives 80,000 euros a month.

More: Hubertus Heil warns against loosening the measures in the corona crisis too quickly. He would like retailers to commit to reasonable collective agreements.

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Ceconomy apparently wants to apply for KfW loans

Decline in profit at Ceconomy

The parent company of Saturn and Media Markt wants to apply for aid loans, according to media reports.


(Photo: dpa)

Dusseldorf The parent company of Saturn and Media Markt, Ceconomy apparently wants to apply for aid loans in the amount of two billion euros. The Bloomberg news agency reports with reference to insider sources. Accordingly, the group is currently in talks with the KfW development bank to provide the loans. According to a scenario, KfW could take on up to 80 percent of the outstanding loans. The rest would be taken over by private banks.

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Corona crisis: Ceconomy wants to apply for KfW loans

Decline in profit at Ceconomy

The parent company of Saturn and Media Markt wants to apply for aid loans, according to media reports.


(Photo: dpa)

Dusseldorf The troubled electronics trading holding Ceconomy and mother of Media Markt and Saturn is seeking help from the state in the face of the burden of the corona crisis. The company announced on Saturday that the group had decided to apply for KfW funding. Ceconomy did not disclose the amount.

According to an insider, it is about two billion euros. The Bloomberg news agency had previously reported this. The stores of Media Markt and Saturn are closed due to the corona crisis in Germany and other European countries.

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Online trading is not a sure-fire success even in the corona crisis

Dusseldorf Media Markt and Saturn tried everything. Because they have to close their branches in more and more countries, both companies have focused all sales activities on the online channels. They advertise equipment for the home office in their web shops. But the additional business on the net is not enough. The parent company Ceconomy has now cashed in the forecasts for sales and profits.

Also Adidas had to close his shops and is now desperately trying to bring the spring collection to customers through his web shop. But that is anything but a sure-fire success. With discounts of up to 50 percent, Adidas offers the goods to sell at least part of them before the summer collection pushes on.

The two groups are exemplary of countless retail companies. “Retailers who already operate multichannel can now switch sales to e-commerce,” says Nils Zündorf, e-commerce expert at the agency faktor-a. “But nobody will be able to compensate for the lost sales from the branches online,” warns Zündorf, the retailer when selling on platforms such as Amazon advises.

No gold digging mood has broken out even with purely online retailers. “Orders in online retail are high, but they don’t explode,” Zündorf observes. When the governments announced the drastic measures earlier this week, the customers on the internet had also initially held back, he observed. “Everyone is rearranging, but it can be expected that online orders will pick up again significantly.”

Accordingly, surveys among online retailers show a very mixed picture. While individual retailers report sales growth of up to 200 percent, others even report falling sales. Of the 135 online retailers surveyed by the Federal Association for E-Commerce and Mail Order in the second week of March, 41 percent reported a drop in demand.

A similar picture was shown by a survey by the retailer association, which represents tens of thousands of small online retailers. In a survey of its members, in which 412 dealers took part, 55 percent spoke of losses in business. Only 9 percent said they benefited from the corona crisis in business.

There is little demand for fashion

The demand in online trading depends heavily on the product category. This is proven by the search queries on Amazon. “Immediately after the pandemic broke out, 80 percent of the top 50 inquiries on Amazon had to do with Corona. Now it is still 40 percent, ”reports Jan Bechler, founder and managing director of the agency finc3 Commerce, the companies like Bosch, Bahlsen or Unilever advises on trading on internet marketplaces.

For example, hygiene products benefit the most, but so do nutritional supplements that promise to strengthen the immune system. Sellers of home and garden items, toys, fitness equipment, food and hardware store products also do good business.

However, only a few people think of new clothes in the current tense situation. In the field of textiles, online sales have already decreased by 20 to 30 percent, reports Stefan Genth, chief executive of the German Trade Association (HDE).

In any case, only retailers who are already active on the Internet have a chance to make online sales. “Retailers who are not yet online retailers have little chance of switching to e-commerce if they have to close their shops,” explains e-commerce expert Bechler. “It is a comprehensive and lengthy process until you have set it up technically, connected your merchandise management and organized the logistics.” Opening a web shop or setting up a shop in a market place takes at least a quarter.

Due to the increased offer on the Internet, it is also becoming more and more difficult for purely online retailers to be noticed by customers at all. “Many retailers and manufacturers are currently increasing their advertising budgets on the marketplaces,” says e-commerce expert Bechler. “Anyone who does not invest in marketing now threatens to lose sales”. One can already see that the costs per click for advertisements on the marketplaces are increasing in many segments.

Employees in protective suits

And the demand is only one side. The effects of the corona crisis have also led to a significant increase in costs for online retailers. The core is usually to secure logistics and your own warehouse.

“We are now working around the clock in a three-shift operation in the warehouse,” reports Boris Häfele, Managing Director of Roast Markets, Germany’s largest online specialist in coffee. He has hired 20 new warehouse employees to keep the business running smoothly even in the new situation.

All employees are now working with protective suits and gloves have to be changed every two hours. There is a break between shifts during which a professional service provider disinfects the warehouse. “For us, these are immense additional costs,” says Häfele.

On the other hand, the crisis also gives him many new customers. Germans spend around 16 billion euros a year on finished coffee in cafes and restaurants. Häfele is now hoping to draw some of this business when people have to stay at home. But he also knows: “How many people will change their behavior in the long term is open.” The increase in sales he feels could also be temporary. He is therefore careful to expand his capacities too quickly.

What all retailers – whether stationary or online – are afraid of: that the crisis lasts so long that consumers generally limit their consumption expenditure. Consumers are already reluctant to buy luxury goods and very expensive products online.

“If the economy shuts down over several weeks, general purchasing reluctance could develop,” warns trading expert Bechler. “People who are on short-time work or fear for their job are more likely to keep their money together.”

More: Psychologist on hamster purchases: “If you see photos of empty shelves, you run into business”

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