Investment experts were too euphoric

Frankfurt At the end of the week, many investors have regained their courage after there have been some hopeful reports in the fight against the corona virus.

Even if a drug to treat Covid-19 was found quickly, the way back to normality would be a long and rocky one, said portfolio manager Thomas Altmann from the investment advisor QC Partners. “The consequences of the economic lockdown at company level and the rise in the unemployment rate cannot simply be reversed.”

Timo Emden from the analytical company of the same name said something similar. “Investors are longing for the big hit in the corona pandemic,” he said. For the market, however, it is still clear that even an active ingredient is not a panacea for the affected global economy.

The German Leading index Dax climbed to 10,756 points on Friday. By the close of trading, however, he surrendered part of the profits and closed with a gain of almost 3.4 percent at 10,642 points. The development of the EuroStoxx 50 is similar: the European stock market index went out of trading with an increase of 2.7 percent at 2,888 points. In the US, investors were also initially in good spirits on Friday. The Dow Jones ended the year up 2.9 percent at 24,216 points.

Badly hit global economy

Jochen Stanzl, chief market analyst of the broker CMC Markets, compared the current increases in the stock market indices with the situation before the big sell-off in December and January. “Even now soaring technology stocks are driving like Netflix, Amazon and Tesla attention away from the fact that the real economy is in ruins, ”he said. “In the end, these companies will do good business, but they won’t save the global economy.”

Despite all the euphoria, the companies are “facing a major adjustment process, accelerated by the additional costs and burdens from the lockdown,” says Stanzl. At the moment, no one could say what the size of company closures would be in the end and how long it would keep stock exchanges from reaching the old highs.

In view of the relaxation of the contact restrictions, Jörg Krämer, chief economist at Commerzbankthat the economy will pick up strongly in the short term. “In the long term, however, there are considerable dangers – for example, due to the sharply increasing corporate debts caused by the crisis,” he said. A V-shaped upturn, i.e. a very rapid pickup in the economy, is unlikely. Rather, a gradual return to growth can be expected.

Jörg Krämer

The chief economist at Commerzbank expects the economy to pick up strongly in the short term.

In the coming week, the developments around the corona virus and current figures on the economic situation will continue to be the dominant topics on the markets. For example, stock marketers are eagerly awaiting the EU’s virus crisis summit next Thursday. Among other things, there will be a possible inclusion of jointly guaranteed debts to overcome the pandemic consequences.

In addition, shareholders will increasingly look at the quarterly figures of individual companies in the coming week. After companies in other countries have already submitted figures for the first quarter, the balance sheet season is now also beginning in Germany. The kick-off is as usual SAP.

In the current balance sheet season, a total slump in profits of 40 percent can be expected, said Ulrich Stephan, chief investment strategist for private and corporate customers at German bank. Nevertheless, he is optimistic: thanks to the multi-billion dollar aid packages from central banks and governments, investors are looking beyond current developments and are concentrating on profits in the second half of the year and 2021.

Entry into the stock market

Given the current price gains, some investors are wondering whether they have already missed the best opportunity to enter stocks. According to the DZ Bank analysts, the volatility will remain high for the time being due to the continuing uncertainties caused by the corona virus and further price setbacks cannot be ruled out. “From previous stock market cycles, we know that after a recession has bottomed out, the stock market has the highest and most sustained growth rates,” said DZ-Bank. “It will take some time before this low is reached. Our economists see this so far in the second quarter of 2020. “

Looking ahead to the coming years, the DZ Bank analysts expect: “By 2022/23, the Dax companies could earn as much again as in the previous record year 2018, and the Dax could reach its highest level again in 13,800 points in 2024.” Who in the continue to buy shares in the coming quarters, should achieve very good long-term investment results. However, it is important to only have shares in companies in the portfolio whose prospects are viewed positively over a three or five year period.

Altmaier wants to gradually ramp up the economy

This is how it will continue in the coming week:

Monday: At the beginning of the week, quarterly figures of Philips, Vivendi, and IBM expected. In Japan, figures on foreign trade are published in March, in Germany data on producer prices in March. The Bundesbank also publishes its monthly report.

Tuesday: The balance sheet season starts and SAP starts as usual. However, the software company had already published preliminary results in early April and lowered the full-year targets. In addition, Netflix, London Stock Exchange (LSE) and Coke Numbers before. The ZEW index provides information on the mood of German stock exchange professionals. UK unemployment figures come from London.

Wednesday: Preliminary data on consumer confidence in the euro zone are expected from Brussels. Lay at the company Alcoa, Ericsson, Caterpillar, Heineken and Roche first quarter figures.

Thursday: The publication of the GfK index will give an indication of the Germans’ buying mood. Alexander Roose, chief equity investor at asset manager Degroof Petercam, expects consumer confidence to “be severely impacted by the severe recession in the services sector due to rising health care costs and lower purchasing power”. In addition, the preliminary Markit purchasing manager index for the euro zone (industry, service, composite) is published. In the United States, the number of initial jobless claims for the week ending April 18 is published. Among other things, they provide insights into their books Credit Suisse, Volvo, Renault, Unilever and Intel.

Friday: At the end of the week, the Ifo index is on the schedule. It provides information about the mood on the German executive floors. Experts expect another slide to 77.2 points from 86.1 points in the previous month. In the United States, data on orders for durable US goods are also published. Experts expect a drop of 11.4 percent. Quarterly figures come from Sanofi, American Express and Nestle.

More: Yield in Corona times: With which investments you can still earn money

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Dax closes almost four percent in the red

Dusseldorf The German Leading index Dax ended trading on Wednesday with a minus of 3.9 percent at 10,279 points. After an increase of 14 percent in just five trading days on Wednesday, the German stock market started to reverse again.

Sold today Wednesday apparently many foreign investors bought German shares. Because the Dax increased its minus significantly from midday trading to the opening of the US stock exchange, at the same time the euro slipped to $ 1.0918 during this period. Almost all Dax values ​​went out of the market with a minus.

Weak economic data in the US unsettled investors and also weighed on Wall Street prices. The Dow Jones already opened 2.2 percent in the red and then fell even further.

Investors were in the mood for news that the US industry cut production more in March than it had in 1946. The companies produced 6.3 percent less goods than in the previous month, as the central bank (Fed) announced in Washington on Wednesday. Overall production – to which utilities and mining also contribute – shrank by 5.4 percent.

US retailers’ sales also fell 8.7 percent in March from the previous month due to the corona crisis, the Department of Commerce said in Washington on Wednesday.

And last but not least, the US banks are suffering from the corona crisis: Due to provisions in the billions due to bad loans, the profits of Goldman Sachs, Bank of America and Citigroup almost halved.

In Germany, in addition to the weak US data, speculation that the German government was not in such a hurry to relax contact restrictions in the virus crisis caused the Dax to slide ever deeper into the red. And after having won almost 30 percent since the corona crash low in mid-March.

Just yesterday, the prices of some stocks had made investors forget that the world was in the middle of an economic crisis. So the course of the Tesla-Share more than doubled since mid-March. The Dax 30 values ​​could be about Wirecard have increased by around 35 percent in the past four weeks.

“The current crisis is like an accelerator of trends that have worked before,” says Jochen Stanzl from online broker CMC Markets. It was used as an excuse and pretext by companies that had previously had problems to carry out restructuring that was long overdue. And it is the reason for the crisis winners to expand even faster.

However, there are many crisis losers. For example, the engine manufacturer MTU, which was down 6.9 percent on Wednesday at the Frankfurt trading venue at the close of the stock exchange. The growing number of canceled orders from the US rival Boeing does too airbus– investors nervous. The shares of the European aircraft manufacturer lost around 8.7 percent.

After all: The new infections with the Covid 19 virus appear to be stabilizing or decrease. That is why there is talk in many, but not all, countries of easing contact barriers. Governments and central banks are throwing huge support packages on the market and pledging to do more when in doubt. So are you okay?

“I’m afraid the real reality check could still come,” says CommerzbankForeign exchange analyst Antje Praefcke. The market had put up with the previous “shockers” like the US labor market figures relatively well. So far, however, they would not have reflected the full extent of the effects of the “century recession”.

Many questions would remain unanswered: Are the production and supply chains really recovering quickly? Does consumer behavior change permanently? What about the recovery of the economy? “The big end could still come and give the market another cold shower,” says the analyst.

Investor sentiment also expects a sell-off on the German market, even if this may no longer push the Dax towards the 8200 point mark. “Investors should not run after the rising prices,” advises Stephan Heibel after evaluating the Handelsblatt survey Dax-Sentiment.

Meanwhile, there are increasing voices that the stock market lows from the end of March will be tested again. Should such a correction set in, there is a risk of a loss of 20 percent or more, depending on the market.

The problem with such forecasts: If a unanimous opinion has formed, it usually turns out differently. As a result, a full-fledged bear market is threatened with new lows, or the bear market is already behind us.

Look at the individual values

Varta: The battery manufacturer’s share, which traded almost nine percent lower on Wednesday at the close of trading, is moving into the focus of hedge funds that are betting on falling prices. The five participating funds have increased this speculation to 6.31 percent of all freely tradable shares in the past few days – a comparatively high ratio.

Such a short sale, as it is called in the technical language, consists of two different trading activities. For one thing, a hedge fund borrows from you Varta-Shareholder (for example, a mutual fund) share certificates and sells the papers.

Apparently that has happened in the past. On March 31 and April 8, for example, the Varta price fell in the meantime by a double-digit percentage – and this with a high trading volume. Last month, the average volume was around 272,000 pieces per day. On March 31, however, almost 750,000 Varta papers were traded, and on April 8, more than 484,000 pieces.

On April 9, the hedge fund Maplelane Capital reported that it had reached a short sale rate of 0.5 percent. Quotas below 0.5 percent do not have to be reported to the Bafin financial regulator.

But now the second trading activity is pending. The hedge funds must buy back the shares as cheaply as possible and return them to the lender. Not an easy task, as a small calculation example shows.

Because a short sale rate of 6.31 percent means: 2.55 million shares have to be bought back. With an average daily volume of 272,000 shares, this buy-back must be carefully dosed so that the Varta price does not rise rapidly and puts the hedge funds under pressure. Because they want to buy back cheaply.

Adidas: The addition of a billion dollar government loan does not help the share either. Although the paper had been 1.3 percent higher in pre-exchange trading, the shares dropped 4.7 percent from regular trading. The sporting goods group raised three billion euros from the development bank and major banks. Two-thirds of the remuneration of the Board of Management is deleted, and the dividend is also canceled.

Adidas suffers from the fact that practically all of its own stores in the western world have been closed for four weeks – including those of independent sports retailers. The stock had lost almost 50 percent since mid-February, but has risen by around 25 percent in the course of the stock market recovery in four weeks.

Fraport: The travel restrictions to curb the corona pandemic have at the Frankfurt airport operator Fraport led to a slump in business. The number of passengers fell by 62 percent to 2.1 million in March alone. The development continued in April: In the first two weeks, the passenger volume fell by over 95 percent. At the close of trading on Wednesday, the paper was down 4.8 percent.

Kuka: The Augsburg-based supplier has a large order for 5,000 robots for the car manufacturer BMW pulled ashore. This news initially caused the share to rise by 1.4 percent, but by the close of the stock market it had slipped significantly again and was 3.9 percent weaker from trading.

The systems and other technologies for the automation of production are to be delivered to BMW plants worldwide in the next few years, where they will be used primarily in body construction Kuka With. The two groups did not comment on the order value and the delivery period.

Oil prices are slipping

Brent oil from the North Sea is heading for its 18-year low from late March ($ 21.65): It fell 6.6 percent to $ 27.62 a barrel. The prices had already dropped significantly yesterday.

After all, according to the International Energy Agency (IEA), global oil demand will be weaker in April than it has been in a quarter of a century. It will drop by an average of 29 million barrels (159 liters each) a day, the IEA predicted in its monthly report on Wednesday.

“April could be the worst month – it could go down in history as black April,” said IEA chief Fatih Birol. A drop in demand of 9.3 million barrels a day is forecast for 2020. Such a sharp drop in demand cannot be compensated for by a reduction in the oil supply, the organization emphasized.

What the chart technique says

Even if the chart technique gives the Dax potential up to 11,030 points: In the short term, the indicators signal falling prices. Because the leading German index is considered overbought after an increase of 14 percent in the last five trading days before Wednesday alone, so it rose too quickly too quickly.

“At least in the short term, the downward risk seems to be higher than the upward chance, especially since the steep, almost four-month upward trend should not last too long,” say the chart technicians at Düsseldorfer Bank HSBC.

The structural picture of the individual Dax 30 values ​​has not yet brightened. All shares are listed below the 200-day line, which signals the long-term trend and underscores the still dominating, overall downward trend.

“When planning wealth, the rule is: never get out completely!”

Here is the page with the DAX course, here is the current tops & flops in the Dax. Current Short sales of investors can be found in our Short sales database.

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Dax slips significantly – shortsellers target Varta stock

Dax curve

View of the Dax curve in the Frankfurt trading hall.


(Photo: dpa)

Dusseldorf The German stock market continues to widen its losses in the course of trading: listed in the afternoon the Dax 3.4 percent minus 10,331 points.

On Tuesday, the index rose 1.3 percent to 10,696 points after a four-hour technical downtime in Xetra trading. At the same time, the leading index reached a new monthly high of 10,820.

Sell ​​today apparently many foreign investors bought German shares. Because the Dax has increased its minus significantly since noon until the opening of the US stock exchange, at the same time the euro slipped significantly during this period by one percent to $ 1.0874.

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Dax closes slightly in the minus

Dusseldorf The German stock market took a breather on Wednesday. Of the Dax closed slightly at 10,333 points, ending the trading day above the daily low of 10,198 points.

Although the Dax could Key technical chart zone in the range of 10,391 counters rise, but he could not overcome them sustainably. Sustainable means: The Dax should at least be above this mark at the close, better three trading days in a row.

In simple terms, technical chart analysts try to predict the further development of stock prices and stock indices by comparing recurring price patterns from the past with current chart graphics.

The analysts of Landesbank Helaba have past bear market rallies until 1929: Again and again there were counter movements with price increases of 30 percent after crashes on the stock markets. “In seven cases, the prices then fell so significantly that new lows followed,” the experts calculated.

The Dax is currently in a similar situation: Starting from the previous correction low of 8255 points to yesterday’s daily high of 10,590 points, the increase in the German leading index is slightly more than 28 percent.

“Not least because of this, the coming days and weeks promise to be very exciting from a technical point of view,” said the analysts at Landesbank Helaba.

Not unusual, but noteworthy: The price increases of the past two days have been accompanied by conflicting signals. Firstly, the trading volume has been average to below average.

And secondly, the VDax, the nerve barometer of the stock exchange, gone up. This means that professional investors expect significantly higher price fluctuations in the coming weeks. It is not typical. The fear barometer usually falls with rising prices and vice versa.

The VDax was last listed at 46.71 points. A few weeks ago, this value was still at the historical value of 93.30 points. The VDax only signals relaxation when the values ​​are below 20.

Today, Wednesday, Wall Street opened for the third day in a row. The US leading index Dow Jones rose by around one percent to 22,893 points, the broader S&P 500 and the technology-heavy Nasdaq Composite also rose by around one percent, reaching 2685 and 7976 points.

As of yesterday, the US stock exchanges offered no support. The Dow Jones index initially trended more than four percent stronger during the day, but then lost all gains by the end of trading and closed slightly in the red. Investors experienced the sharpest change in trend since October 14, 2008, when the Dow revealed gains of five percent within an exchange session. The Asian stock exchanges tended to be mixed.

Look at the individual values

Shop pharmacy: The online drug dealer has completed a capital increase of 65 million euros. Around 1.12 million new shares were placed at an issue price of EUR 58. The investors’ euphoria only lasted briefly. After the share initially rose over three percent, it closed the trading day with a minus of 3.3 percent. By Tuesday, she had already lost almost seven percent. Nevertheless, the paper is a winner of the corona crisis: it has increased by more than 45 percent since the beginning of the year.

And the course of the share price should remain volatile in the coming weeks. Because hedge funds have increased their speculation on falling prices at the online retailer. In total, four funds have “short-sold” 9.2 percent of all freely tradable shares, as they say in technical terms, and rely on this share for weaker prices.

Vonovia: Despite the corona crisis, the housing group is sticking to its profit targets. Fortunately give Vonovia his annual goals always with a certain corridor, said CEO Rolf Buch of the “Süddeutsche Zeitung”. The stock led the Dax list of winners in the meantime, but was in the middle of the range with a gain of around one percent when the market closed.

Tui: The tourism group has brought its government loan, which was applied for because of the corona crisis, under one roof. Tui has signed the contract with the development bank KfW for the bridging loan of 1.8 billion euros. Like other companies, Tui had to temporarily suspend the organizer, flight, hotel and cruise program. The stock heavily hit by the crisis, which has lost more than 63 percent since the beginning of the year, initially rose by around 10 percent after this report and ended trading with a plus of 6.7 percent.

Tesco: The British supermarket chain does not dare to look ahead to the current fiscal year 2020/21 due to the coronavirus pandemic. It is impossible to predict the impact, the company said. There are high additional costs – especially for the workforce. The share price fell 1.3 percent.

German postal service: The corona crisis is also shaking the logistics company and its global delivery network. The Bonn-based company is therefore canceling its profit forecast for 2020, which it had already marked with a big question mark in February. This burdened the share with losses of 2.1 percent. The Post is already seeing signs of recovery in China. CEO Frank Appel also does not want to respond to the corona crisis by cutting staff.

Look at other asset classes

The EU finance ministers postponed talks over a 500 billion aid package in the corona crisis after a video conference lasting several nights. Calls from Paris and Rome for joint euro bonds to build up after the crisis continue to cause considerable differences of opinion.

That’s why the yields of Italian government bonds with a term of ten years meanwhile increased to 1.808 percent. At the close of trading on Deutsche Börse, they fell again slightly to 1.622 percent. On yesterday’s trading day, this value was now at 1.50 percent. The return on German sovereign wealth funds, on the other hand, fell to minus 0.305 percent after minus 0.318 the previous day.

This postponement also has negative consequences for the euro. The European common currency fell 0.2 percent to $ 1.0865.

The weaker euro and the stronger dollar after the euro finance ministers’ disagreement initially caused the gold price to weaken. Later he was able to recover a little.

No stabilization of the US stock exchanges: “Down risks greater than up opportunities”

According to the foreign exchange analysts, the disagreement among political decision makers in Europe speaks Commerzbank for gold. This would make the ECB step in as a cleaner and buy more bonds. Gold in euros should therefore soon make a new attempt at the all-time high experts say.

Before the meeting of the major oil producing countries There is hope for a reduction in production volumes on the raw material markets. Oil prices rose Wednesday afternoon after falling two days in a row. A barrel (159 liters) of the North Sea type Brent was recently one percent up at $ 32.19. The US light oil WTI cost $ 24.53, a 3.8 percent profit.

“It is now important that the oil price is stabilized in order to avoid unnecessary credit risks amid the already unpredictable negative economic effects of the corona lockdown,” said Jochen Stanzl, chief market analyst at the CMC Markets trading company. Without an agreement, there could be another sell-out on the oil market.

What the chart technique says

The struggle for the important mark of 10,391 points remains because the leading German index failed to overcome it at the closing price. On the bottom there is a multitude of upward price gaps that show how difficult it is for investors to value the market.

Such price gaps arise when the highest price of a day remains below that of the following day. Yesterday Tuesday the lowest price was 10,225 points, the highest price on Monday was 10,097 points. Such upward gaps are important resistance according to chart technology.

“From a risk point of view, this upward price gap is predestined as a hedge,” say the technical analysts at Düsseldorf Bank HSBC. Because if the leading German index falls below the 10,097 point mark, this increases the risk that the index will continue to slide.

Here is the page with the DAX course, here is the current tops & flops in the Dax. Current Short sales of investors can be found in our Short sales database.

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Current oil price: Oil prices are rising strongly

oil

Oil prices were supported by reports from China.


(Photo: dpa)

Singapore, Frankfurt Oil prices rose significantly on Thursday. A barrel (159 liters) of the North Sea Brent rose by up to 12.7 percent to $ 27.88, later the price fell slightly to $ 27.12. Light US oil WTI peaked 11 percent higher at $ 22.55.

Oil prices were supported by reports from China. The country wants to use the currently low oil prices to increase the state’s oil reserves, the Bloomberg news agency said, citing informed circles.

In addition, the hope that the US would settle the dispute between Russia and Saudi Arabia pushed up the oil price on Thursday. US President Donald Trump announced earlier this week that he wanted to mediate between Saudi Arabia and Russia in the price war.

Trump has spoken to the heads of state of the two oil countries and assume that they will soon be able to agree. “I think they’ll make a deal,” Trump said.

The oil industry has been devastated worldwide. That is very bad for Russia and for Saudi Arabia. Trump said he would meet oil producers on Friday with more meetings planned.

“The market hopes that this US intervention will bring us closer to an agreement between Saudi Arabia and Russia to cut production,” said analyst Margaret Yang of CMC Markets.

The US economy is also suffering severely from the low price level. “Many US oil producers are unable to make profits and drilling activities in North America could decline.” Russian President Vladimir Putin also recently pushed for a solution.

It had already become known the day before that Russia apparently did not want to further increase oil production in the course of the price war. This was reported by the Bloomberg news agency, citing Russian government circles.

Saudi Arabia had recently expanded production to around twelve million barrels a day. Market observers also reported that the kingdom would only be willing to cut production if all major oil nations took part.

But experts still see no signs of relaxation on the oil market. Oil reserves in the United States had recently increased unexpectedly. According to the British market research institute IHS Markit, the world could therefore no longer have any storage capacity for crude oil by the middle of the year.

In Canada, this state will, according to the US bank Goldman Sachs already reached in three weeks. According to market observers, some companies have already considered storing surpluses in railroad cars.

Here is the page with the Brent Prize, here for STI course.

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Minus of Wall Street causes losses on Asia’s stock exchanges

The Australian All Ordinaries slipped the most. At 10:10 a.m. local time, it was trading 3.5 percent below the previous day and then only recovered slightly to values ​​between minus two to three percent. Trump’s changing rhetoric hurts optimistic stock traders, said Michael McCarthy, chief strategist at Australian securities firm CMC Markets, according to Reuters.

Japan’s Nikkei 225 index fluctuated for a long time after its 4.5 percent crash from the previous day by minus one percent and went to lunch break at 17,911.07 points, 0.9 percent below the closing price on Wednesday. With the Shanghai Composite Index and Korea’s Kospi, only two markets fluctuated around the previous day’s value.

In Japan, the liquidist market in Asia, there is still concern that the government in Tokyo and perhaps in other major cities may declare a state of emergency. So far, local governments have been struggling with appeals to stay at home to take the final tough step in the arsenal against the pandemic.

The technology investor Softbank, however, resisted the trend because it dropped the office agent WeWork. No sooner had WeWork announced that Softbank had withdrawn its $ 3 billion takeover bid on WeWork than the stock price skyrocketed.

At lunch break, Softbank was up 1.5 percent with 3,731 yen. Not even the WeWorks threat to sue Softbank frightened shareholders. Rather, they reacted with relief that Softbank did not invest its cash in the restructuring case in these turbulent times.

Exceptional market Taiwan

Despite public holidays, one market also came into focus: Taiwan. “We’re upgrading Taiwan to bullish,” wrote Sean Darby, chief strategist at Jefferies, an investment firm, to his clients.

With large corporations such as the contract manufacturer Foxconn and the chip manufacturer TSMC The island with its 23 million inhabitants is not only an important employer in China, but also an indispensable supplier of high-tech for the world’s largest exporting nation.

In the eyes of Darby, Taiwan is already benefiting from the restart of the Chinese economy. In addition, the country has so far successfully contained the corona virus. The infection curve meant that “Taiwan is really the first country to escape the virus,” believes Darby.

At the same time, the world economy would be in a top position, while the companies were “highly solvent”. “Taiwan offers a large number of companies with good dividend coverage and decent returns that are supported by healthy balance sheets.”

More: Read all current developments regarding the corona pandemic here.

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US exchanges remain in the red – Xerox and HP lose after the deal is stopped

Dusseldorf The fear of bigger ones economic damage from the rapidly spreading corona virus continues to burden Wall Street. Of the Dow Jones index falls 4.4 percent to 20,943 points. The broader S&P 500 slips 4.4 percent to 2470 points. The technology-heavy Nasdaq Composite gives 4.4 percent to 7360 meters.

“The warning from US President Donald Trump about upcoming horrible weeks and up to 240,000 deaths in the coming months depresses the mood on the market,” said investment strategist Kit Juckes from the bank Societe Generale. Trump also warned the population to strictly follow public restrictions for another 30 days.

“Talking of a stock market bottom still seems remarkably premature given the continued rise in infection and death rates in Europe and the United States,” said Michael Hewson, senior market analyst at CMC Markets in London.

This view is shared by other stock market experts such as fund manager Jeffrey Gundlach. In his view, the recent highs should not be reached for a long time, on the contrary: He even expects new lows on the US stock exchanges. “I also think in April this feeling of panic will come up again ”said the CEO and chief investment officer of Doubleline Capital.

Large US banks’ forecasts that the US economy will quickly recover from the coming recession are too optimistic. The current general economic situation is reminiscent of a depression.

The total volume of US economic stimulus and monetary support measures is expected to reach $ 10 trillion, Gundlach expects. The US unemployment rate will rise to ten percent, and the dollar will lose value as government debt escalates.

The labor market service provider ADP reports one with minus 27,000 digits surprisingly small decline in jobs in the private sector. A drop of 150,000 jobs was estimated. Still, it’s the first drop since September 2017.

This is due to the exit restrictions in connection with the Covid 19 spread. “It is not yet clear to what extent the virus will affect the labor market,” said the analysts at Landesbank Helaba. However, the indication for the official report next Friday is negative. A massive rise in the unemployment rate is to be feared in the coming months.

Look at the individual values:

Macy’s shares fell 9.8 percent to $ 4.43. The papers of the US department store chain fall out of the S&P 500 index and will in future only be represented in the S&P small-cap 600. Since the beginning of the year, the paper of the chain, which has been suffering from customer loss for some time, has lost around 70 percent due to the corona crisis. Since the record high of $ 73.60 five years ago, the market value has shrunk by more than $ 20 billion.

The US printer manufacturer Xerox in the middle of the corona virus pandemic refrains from the planned hostile takeover of the computer company HP. Xerox described the move on Tuesday night as disappointing, but necessary to focus on addressing the corona crisis. Xerox had offered $ 35 billion for HP.

Xerox stocks lost seven percent in response to this decision, while HP stocks fell 14 percent.

The withdrawal is considered a victory for HP boss Enrique Lores, who had rejected the takeover offer published for the first time in November as too low.
Xerox’s business is under pressure during the crisis. The value of the stock has halved in the past five weeks, while HP’s share certificates have fallen by around a quarter. HP benefits from the trend towards home office.

At T-Mobile US and Sprint on the other hand, you have reached your goal: After a two-year tremor, the merger of the mobile operators is in a dry cloth. Investors reacted relieved in both cases, the papers became winners against the weak market with 1.5 and 2.1 percent respectively.

The interest rate sensitive shares of Banks are among the big losers. Citigroup, lost 8.6 percent, JP Morgan and Goldman Sachs gave in 6.3 and six percent.

The title of the hotel operator Marriott slipped 7.6 percent. Reason: There was a data leak, about 5.2 million customers are affected.

They also flew out of the depots Petroleum values. In addition to virus worries, they suffered from the price war of the two important export countries of Saudi Arabia and Russia. This caused US inventories to swell more than three times as expected last week. In return, the price of the US oil grade WTI fell by up to 2.8 percent to $ 19.90 a barrel (159 liters). It was about half a dollar above its 18-year low from last week.

This affects shale oil producers in particular because, according to experts, they only work profitably from a price of around $ 50 due to the complex fracking process. With Whiting Petroleum, the first company from this group had to apply for bankruptcy protection. The stock then plummeted by about half.

The aircraft manufacturer’s papers too Boeing it was hard again, with a price slide of more than twelve percent they became a noticeable burden in the Dow, where they still belong to the heavyweights.

With agency material.

More: Shares, bonds, oil, gold: That was 100,000 euros in the first quarter

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Dax loses sight of 10,000 points

NAfter its recent price gains, the German stock market lost sight of the 10,000-point mark on Friday. “The Dax is stopping its intermediate recovery for now. That was to be expected at the price level now reached, ”wrote the chart technology expert Andreas Büchler from Index Radar.

Towards noon, the leading German index fell by 1.91 percent to 9,810 points. The M-Dax of the medium-sized values ​​fell by 2.90 percent to 20 805.08 points. The Euro-Stoxx-50 as the leading index of the euro zone lost around two and a half percent.

Analyst David Madden from CMC Markets UK referred to the somewhat poor coordination of European countries to combat the virus pandemic. The lack of a strong common front weighs on the stock markets, the expert said.

Regardless, the Dax is heading for a weekly gain of almost 10 percent. Since the crisis low of the previous week, the recovery has risen to almost 19 percent. Because of the unbroken wave of infections, which is now increasingly affecting America after China and Europe, uncertainty remains high. Weekly American labor market data the previous day had shown that the pandemic is already having a full impact on the economy there.

Market expert Thomas Altmann from the asset manager QC Partners also noted that there will be no new news about aid packages from governments and central banks for the time being, and this mixed situation could get the mood of one or the other stock exchange broker.

“With the flood of negative news, it is difficult for many investors to jump into stocks at the moment,” said Milan Cutkovic, market analyst at broker house AxiTrader. “There are a lot of justified doubts that the strong plus signs of the past few days are the beginning of a sustainable recovery.”

The profiteers of the virus crisis were once again ahead on the last trading day of the week. The shares of Drägerwerk in the S-Dax gained around 8 percent. The Lübeck-based company produces ventilation devices and protective equipment. The company sees a significantly increased demand here worldwide. At least 0.3 percent, Teamviewer was among the best values ​​in the M-Dax.

At the front of the Dax there were values ​​of a defensive nature, such as those of the utility Eon with a plus of 2.3 percent. Auto and chip values, on the other hand, were on the losing side. In the Dax, Continental came in last with minus 5.4 percent.

The real estate sector came under further pressure. Experts fear that a recession could end the boom in the housing market. Industry stocks such as Vonovia, Aroundtown, Instone and Deutsche Euroshop also fell by more than 9 percent.

After a series of annual balance sheets in the past few days, hardly anything was expected on Friday in this regard. However, more and more corporations are withdrawing their outlook and commenting on the dividend.

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Dow Jones, Nasdaq, S&P 500: US exchanges close in the red

New York / Düsseldorf The US is increasingly at the center of the corona crisis. While the number of infections is increasing, the government and Congress have so far not been able to agree on a comprehensive package of measures to support the economy. New aid from the US Federal Reserve therefore fizzled out on Wall Street on Monday.

The Dow Jones Industrial lost around three percent to 18,592 points. It widened the losses of the disastrous previous week and fell to its lowest level since November 2016.

With a setback of 2.9 percent to 2237 points, the market-wide S&P 500 came from the trade, which was again characterized by strong fluctuations. The technology-heavy Nasdaq Composite dropped 0.3 percent to 6,860 points.

The papers from Boeing grew 11.2 percent to around $ 106. According to exchange traders, some investors apparently saw the end of aircraft production in the US state of Washington as good news because it could save money. Finally it was with the papers of the airbus-Rivals steadily gone downhill.

A new, historic set of measures by the US Federal Reserve gave investors a little bit of confidence again: The Fed announced another massive expansion of its securities purchases on Monday. It plans to buy unlimited government bonds and certain mortgage-backed securities. In the future, it also plans to accept student or credit card loans as collateral for lending to commercial banks. Among other things, these new measures are intended to support the flow of credit to households and small businesses.

“The Fed goes all out,” said analyst Michael Hewson of broker CMC Markets. With the measures, the central bank is not only jumping on Wall Street, but is also trying to help the US citizens directly. The Fed also appears to have decided to take radical measures in view of the rapidly rising dollar.

Scott Brown, chief economist at financial services provider Raymond James, commented on the Fed: “You are now throwing everything into balance. These measures alone don’t do anything against the virus – that’s the big problem. They help, but we still need stimulus and we need many of them. We have to direct it to the people who will really suffer. “

At government level, negotiations for an economic stimulus package of more than $ 1 trillion (900 billion euros) had previously stalled in the United States. The Democrats had blocked the targeted rescue package on the first try.

Goldman with a pessimistic forecast

Investors are increasingly focusing on the USA as a result of the corona crisis. After New York and California, other states called on their citizens to stay at home. “The United States is now threatening to become the new epicenter of the corona pandemic after Europe,” said Jochen Stanzl, market analyst at CMC Markets. Goldman Sachs is now anticipating a drop in real US gross domestic product of almost a quarter in the second quarter.

“The corona crisis – or more specifically, the answer to this crisis – is a physical, as opposed to financial, limitation of economic activity that is unprecedented in post-war history,” said Goldman Sachs. The investment bank expects the global economy to decline of around one percent this year.

This is a stronger economic slump than in the year after the global financial crisis in 2008. The analysts from Morgan Stanley warned of serious damage to the global economy due to the increasing spread of the new lung disease.
With agency material

More: The leading German index makes up almost 600 points after the new Fed package, but then closes in the red.

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Investors calm down after the stock market tsunami

DThe German stock market continued to stabilize after recovery gains on the previous day at the end of the week. However, the profits on Friday crumbled somewhat in the course of trading: While the leading German index had increased by almost 7 percent at the opening, it ultimately went into the weekend with an increase of 3.70 percent to 8,928 points.

The day before, the Dax had grown by two percent. For the past five trading days, however, there is still a loss of 3.3 percent given the continuing uncertainty caused by the coronavirus crisis. The M-Dax of medium-sized market stocks rose on Friday by 5.18 percent to 19 521 points.

According to analyst Jochen Stanzl from CMC Markets, monetary and fiscal policy interventions by central banks and individual states have currently “put the stock markets on a stable side.” The violent fluctuations are also decreasing, which is also thanks to the calming down on the oil market.

The stock markets in America joined the recovery trend on the European and Asian stock exchanges on Friday. However, the upward movement across the Atlantic was significantly less than in Europe. The leading index Dow Jones Industrial was recently 0.89 percent higher at 20,266 points. For the past week, however, this indicates a substantial loss of around 12 percent.

The market-wide S&P 500 has so far gained 0.68 percent on 2425 points on Friday. The technology-heavy Nasdaq 100 rose 2.02 percent to 7436 points.

After the massive drop in prices, a recovery is taking shape. “It seems that the many different measures by governments and central banks are finally calming the markets,” wrote market analyst David Maddden of CMC Markets in a comment. The American central bank expanded its dollar aid on Thursday.

Among the individual values, Tesla shares continued their previous day rally and recently gained 7.5 percent. On Thursday, the electric car manufacturer’s papers in regular stock exchange trading skyrocketed by more than 18 percent. After the exchange, they had dropped more than 7 percent after the company announced that production in California would be closed. However, Tesla claims to have sufficient liquidity to cope with a losing streak.

General Electric shares rose almost 6 percent. The U.S. agency has approved the sale of the conglomerate’s biopharmaceutical business to its competitor Danaher.

At Uber, which rose by almost 10 percent, an upgrade of the shares to “Overweight” by Wells Fargo made a positive impact. In addition, the company claims to have a solid financial cushion.

Metro before takeover?

Sysco’s papers rose by around 12 percent in the face of ongoing takeover speculation. According to “Manager Magazin”, the boss of the German retail group Metro, Olaf Koch, has shown himself open to a takeover by the American food retailer. “There is a high level of affection between the two companies, we share similar values,” said Koch to the newspaper, confirming discussions between the two companies for the first time.

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