DAX outlook: mood barometer cloudy outlook

Frankfurt In the past weeks there have been repeated attempts to recover the course, on some days one could believe that the corona pandemic has already been overcome. But on Friday, disillusionment returned – the collapsed ifo business climate index made the whole dilemma clear.

The course of the mood barometer looks like a “Highway to Hell”, was the analysis of the VP Bank. The index is now significantly below the values ​​of the crisis year 2009. The simple message for the future was: “Massive income losses are imminent. We will all get poorer. This applies not only to Germany, but to all economies. ”Sometimes it is better to hear the unvarnished truth.

Other analysts and experts are also skeptical about the weekly outlook. Cautious savings by consumers and companies create a completely different economic and inflation environment than one knows from the post-war period, the analysts at MFS Investment Management believe.

They expect the earnings recovery to be weaker than the market and point to the possible dilution of earnings through capital increases. They particularly highlight 2008 as a comparison.

“When the extreme risk of the international financial crisis subsided, companies were no longer concerned with distributions, but with recapitalization. To this end, new shares were issued – at the expense of existing shareholders, whose capital was heavily diluted, ”said the investment professionals. The new wave of recapitalization has probably just started. In the past few weeks, leisure companies and service providers in the United States and Europe have already offered new shares.

Warning to bargain hunters

The BLI – Banque de Luxembourg Investments is also cautious. “The financial markets are currently giving the impression that they are underestimating the extent of the economic damage and are counting on a rapid recovery as soon as the containment measures are reversed,” is the BLI’s assessment.

Many investors are conditioned to view any decline as an opportunity to buy. However, the analysts recall that while the fall in share prices in February / March was dramatic, the valuations were also very high. As a result, the markets today are anything but cheap, especially after the recent price recovery.

Quality companies with a very solid balance sheet, one or more sustainable competitive advantages and the ability to self-finance should be preferred. The main factor that will continue to speak for stocks remains the low interest rate level and thus the lack of alternatives. At the same time, gold will become an “indispensable part of a balanced portfolio because of the inflation risks.”

After the significant recovery since mid-March, the European stock market has recently lost some momentum, the Weberbank experts believe. In addition, the balance sheet season that is already underway shows significant impacts on corporate balance sheets due to the global “lockdowns”.

Correspondingly, the analysts have also significantly lowered their profit expectations for industrial companies, but also for the banking and energy sectors. Due to the economic slump, banks faced increased write-downs on their credit books and the massive drop in yields clouded interest income. Most recently, they also negatively impacted the rating agency Standard & Poor’s (S&P).

The Deutsche Bank and the Commerzbank were therefore particularly under pressure on Friday “We continue to distance ourselves from these sectors and prefer creditworthy pharmaceuticals or companies from the non-cyclical consumption. In addition, titles from the technology sector are promising in our eyes, ”said the Weberbank experts.

Central banks meet worldwide

If the economic situation continues to be poor, the states and central banks will have to take further support measures. Robert Greil, chief strategist at Merck Finck Privatbankiers, sees an opportunity for this next week because the European Central Bank, the US Federal Reserve and the Bank of Japan are meeting.

“As a result of the unprecedented economic downturn caused by the Covid 19 consequences, all central banks will reaffirm their willingness to support,” says Greil. The economic downturn left neither governments nor central banks a choice but to take further measures to support and recover the economy.

The gross domestic product for the first quarter of 2020 will be published in the euro area on Thursday, and new growth figures will come in the US on Wednesday. Further important economic data in Germany are the preliminary inflation figures and the labor market report for April.

According to DZ Bank, the next quarter should bring an improvement in the economy, but there does not have to be a “V” or “I” recovery. This is not ignored on the stock market, many stocks are up to 80 percent down.

A large number of “mega-caps” hold up against this, mainly in the USA. Amazon, Google, Microsoft, Netflix and Facebook, but also Adobe or Comcast, be stable on the way. Things are also going well for the great values ​​of the “old economy”, including Pepsico, Johnson & Johnson, Procter & Gamble, Home depot and Pfizer. The German Leading index Dax the strategists from DZ Bank see 11,200 points by the end of the year, and the S & P-500 for US equities at 2,800. This would at least stabilize in the medium term.

More: Yield in Corona times: With which investments you can still make money

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How professionals position themselves on the stock exchange

Frankfurt Stock Exchange

Many investors are puzzled as to where the markets will go.


(Photo: dpa)

Frankfurt The uncertainty is great. The oil price and many stock prices are in the basement. The mood among many managers is bad. The corona crisis keeps the financial markets in suspense every day. Many investors are now thinking more than ever about where to invest their money in these unstable times.

Because the violent ups and downs on the markets shows that there is still no peace on the stock exchanges. This leaves many investors in doubt about their previous investments. Keep or prefer to sell? This is an important question for many investors, especially with equities.

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Oil dealer scandal in Singapore hits European banks

Bangkok Lim Oon Kuin worked on his raw material empire for more than half a century, which made him one of the most important oil traders in Singapore. Given the crash in the oil markets, a few weeks were enough to bring his company down. What remains are investigations by Singapore’s law enforcement officers and a mountain of debt of almost four billion dollars with several international banks – including the one German bank.

Hin Leong is the name of Lim’s company that became the first major victim of the oil crisis in Asia. Translated, the company name means “prosperity”. But there seems to be little left of the billion dollars Lim used to juggle the oil market and recently bet against a drop in prices.

Hin Leong filed for bankruptcy protection at the end of last week after the banks asked for the loans to be repaid. Now the auditing and consulting firm PwC should take control of the group during the debt restructuring talks, as the local newspaper “Straits Times” reported on Thursday, citing insiders.

The credit institutions threaten to remain on a large part of their claims. The remaining oil traders in the Southeast Asian financial metropolis are also facing a severe crisis: In response to the turbulence at Hin Leong, the banks are cutting their credit lines. The industry is now afraid of massive liquidity shortages. “Banks cancel their positions wherever possible,” commented industry consultant Jean-Francois Lambert. Singapore’s central bank was forced to warn the financial industry of a complete lending to the oil sector.

Hidden losses

The loss of confidence is also responsible for the impending credit crunch: Lim Oon Kuin, known in Singapore as O.K. Lim, admitted in an affidavit that he had hidden losses of $ 800 million. “I told the finance department not to let the losses show up in the books,” Lim wrote in the court document, according to the Bloomberg news agency.

The balance sheet for 2019 thus showed a profit of $ 78 million. “In truth, the company hasn’t made a profit in the past few years,” said Lim, whose assets the US magazine “Forbes” estimated in early April at $ 1.3 billion. The 76-year-old founder also admitted to having secretly sold millions of barrels of oil, which he guaranteed to the banks as collateral.

With the admission, Lim may be trying to avert harm from relatives who are also involved in the family business. His son, Evan Lim, who runs the Ocean Tankers spin-off with a fleet of around 100 oil tankers, said they hadn’t known about the events. As announced on Monday, Singapore’s police opened an investigation into Hin Leong.

The company’s approximately $ 4 billion in debt was only offset by assets of $ 700 million recently, the company reportedly told creditors. The losses at the 23 banks that loaned Hin Leong money could total $ 3.3 billion.

HSBC most affected

The UK Bank HSBC, which owes the company $ 600 million, is hardest hit. ABN Amro and the Rabobank from the Netherlands and the French Société Générale and the British Standard Chartered Bank has loaned Hin Leong between $ 200 million and $ 300 million each. Three local banks from Singapore collectively have claims of nearly $ 700 million.

Deutsche Bank and DZ Bank were also reportedly involved in the business with Hin Leong – with relatively low amounts. According to Reuters, Deutsche Bank is about $ 70 million and DZ Bank is about $ 40 million. Both banks did not want to comment on this on request.

Hin Leong was one of the largest suppliers of marine fuel in Singapore and played an important role in Southeast Asian gasoline trading. The group also owns a stake in a huge fuel depot. Sales talks with the Chinese company are now reportedly under way Sinopec.

More: How the Saudi Crown Prince gambles in the oil price war

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Bear market rally: extremes on the stock markets: analysts fear new slumps

Many experts do not trust the current rally on the global stock markets after the unprecedented crash of the stock markets. There are many reasons for that. .

Current Dax rate: Dax gives way slightly

Dusseldorf The German stock market starts the new trading week in a friendly manner, but slips further down the line. In afternoon trading, the leading German index Dax is down around 0.2 percent and is trading at 10,559 points.

The negative signs are increasing: According to a study, the Germans will put more money on the high edge this year. The savings rate is expected to climb to 12.5 percent this year from 10.9 percent in 2019, the economists at DZ Bank calculate. That is the highest private savings rate since 1992.

According to DZ Bank, uncertainties about job security and income prospects in particular contribute to a greater propensity to save. In return, consumption will shrink accordingly.

For example, less durable consumer goods such as cars would be bought. Private consumption in Germany is likely to fall by 2.8 percent, which would be the worst slump since reunification. The slump in consumption increases the proportion of savings in disposable income.

Overall, the disposable income of private households is expected to shrink by 1.1 percent this year, according to the DZ Bank experts. That would be the first decline since the 2009 financial crisis.

And according to the VDMA industry association, machine builders in Germany are increasingly feeling the drop in orders due to the corona crisis. In mid-April, 89 percent of the companies surveyed said they were affected by the effects of the pandemic. Overall, 45 percent of the companies report noticeable, 32 percent of those surveyed even serious order losses or cancellations.

As a result, the prices of cyclical stocks in particular are slipping. Daimler leads the list of losers with a minus of around 2.6 percent, as does the supplier Continental. In return, shares in non-cyclical companies such as the medical technology group Fresenius Medical Care (plus 3.2 percent) and the reinsurer Munich Re (plus 2.5 percent).

Investor sentiment is currently “wait and see neutral”, the possibility of a continuation of the recovery rally is limited in the short term, the risk of a setback is greater. This can also be seen in the current evaluation of the weekly Handelsblatt survey Dax-Sentiment.

Because surprisingly, the investment rate of investors is again at a relatively high level. This can also be seen from the overbought condition of the US selection index S&P 500, which rose too quickly after the price slump.

The insider barometer shows a similar picture, which analyzes the trading of Germany’s board of directors and supervisory boards in the shares of their company. Because with the recovery on the stock markets, insider buying has decreased.

The executives, who know their companies better than anyone else, go bargain hunting if they think their company’s shares on the stock market are undervalued. That is no longer so clearly the case.

Olaf Stotz, a professor at the Frankfurt School of Finance & Management, would only be able to support a new, larger rush of directors and supervisory boards to buy shares in their own companies Dax-Stands around 8500 points expected.

Look at individual values

Deutsche Bank: Germany’s largest money house is preparing for higher credit risks in the wake of the corona crisis. Actually, CEO Christian Sewing had promised a black zero in operating profit for 2020 after a billion minus in the previous year.

However, analysts now expect the bank to face a loss of around two billion euros. The share is down 1.8 percent.

Ceconomy: The restrictions on public life cause Saturn / Mediamarkt’s mother to plummet sales and lose quarterly. These numbers come as no surprise, a trader said. Nevertheless, the share of the electronics retailer loses 3.6 percent.

Philips: The Dutch medical technology group posted a significant drop in profits in the first quarter due to the virus crisis. Philips cited a drop in demand for electric toothbrushes, shavers and other health products as a result of the virus crisis as the reason for the decline. However, the share price rose 5.9 percent.

Look at other asset classes

The fall in oil prices cannot be stopped: In the afternoon, a barrel (159 liters) of the North Sea Brent cost $ 26.73, down 4.9 percent. The price of a barrel of the American grade WTI dropped temporarily by around 40 percent to around eleven dollars, the lowest level in 21 years.

While the slump in demand due to the corona crisis continues, concerns have recently increased on the US market that the oil deposits there may be reaching their capacity limits.

The slump in prices for US oil has thus amounted to almost 75 percent since the beginning of the year. Concerns about crude oil storage caused prices to plummet compared to North Sea oil, where discounts last year were 68 percent.

As market watchers from the Australia & New Zealand Banking Group reported, inventory levels in Cushing, Oklahoma, have increased by a whopping 50 percent since the beginning of March. “We still have hope of a recovery at the end of the year,” said the experts.

The EU summit on Thursday with the discussion on corona bonds has already on Monday impact on the bond market. The yield spread between German and Italian government bonds continues to increase and is now 2.32 percentage points. The yield on ten-year bonds is currently approaching the monthly highs reached last week at 1.940 percent.

This “spread” has become a kind of fever curve in the Italian economy. This risk premium reached a record level of 3.3 percentage points in 2018 when the EU Commission rejected the draft budget for the second time in November.

“Residential properties could emerge from the crisis as winners”

In any case, the Italian bond market is facing another test at the end of the week when S&P Global reviews Italy’s BBB rating with a negative outlook.

What the chart technique says

Corrections within the overall trend very often end at the 50 percent mark. Currently related to the Dax, this means that the downward trend has so far been from the record high in mid-February at 13,795 points to the low point in mid-March at 8255 points.

The 50 percent mark is accordingly at 11,025 points. With the increase to 10,820 points last Tuesday, the index of this brand has already approached.

Should the Frankfurt benchmark break this 11,025 point mark, the next resistance would be at 11,266 points, the August 2019 interim low.

The important resistance zone is in the range of 10,279 to 10,391 points. From the first-mentioned brand, the leading index started its rally in December 2018, which continued until a record high in February 2020. The brand was “confirmed” last Tuesday because the index ended trading right there.

Just below that there are so-called price gaps for which there were no quotes this year. The last gap would be closed at a Dax level of 10,097 points.

Here is the page with the DAX course, here is the current tops & flops in the Dax. Current Short sales of investors can be found in our Short sales database.

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Private savings rate rises to its highest level since 1992

DZ Bank

Economists at DZ Bank expect a higher private savings rate.


(Photo: dpa)

Berlin Despite a loss of income due to the corona crisis, the Germans will put more money on the high edge of a study. The savings rate is expected to climb to 12.5 percent this year from 10.9 percent in 2019, the economists of DZ Bank calculate in their study published on Monday.

“This is the highest private savings rate since 1992,” it says. In return, consumption will shrink accordingly. In the coming year, the share of savings in disposable income with the expected economic recovery will drop to 11.3 percent.

According to DZ Bank, uncertainties about job security and income prospects in particular contribute to a greater propensity to save. This would, for example, buy less durable consumer goods such as cars.

“There are also consumption restrictions due to the ‘lockdown’ when traveling on holiday, visiting restaurants, leisure activities, clothing or at the hairdresser, which can only be partially made up later,” said the economists.

As a result, private consumption in Germany is expected to fall by 2.8 percent, which would be the worst slump since reunification. The slump in consumption increases the proportion of savings in disposable income.

For some of the households, the crisis is associated with a considerable drop in income – for example for the self-employed and short-time workers. This contrasts with 21 million pensioners who will receive significantly more pensions from July.

Overall, the disposable income of private households is expected to shrink by 1.1 percent this year, according to the DZ Bank experts. That would be the first decline since the 2009 financial crisis.

More: Households still have immense savings. However, achieving returns has become even more difficult.

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The corona crisis is an opportunity for German equity culture

Bull and bear

Turbulent stock market times can be a good opportunity to get into stocks.


(Photo: dpa)

Frankfurt The number of shareholders in Germany has been at a low level for years. According to the German Stock Institute (DAI), it even fell again last year. Just 9.7 percent of Germans were recently invested in stocks or equity funds. The fact that the share prices of companies have plummeted due to the corona crisis is therefore only a cause for annoyance for a minority of German citizens. For others, it can be a good opportunity to finally become a shareholder.

First of all, they will need good nerves. The analysts at DZ-Bank, for example, assume that volatility will remain high for the time being due to the continuing uncertainties caused by the corona virus – prices will fluctuate more strongly. New setbacks cannot be ruled out either. In addition, they point out that the highest and most sustained rate of increase in the stock market in the past was only after the low point of a recession. They estimate that this could be achieved in the second quarter of 2020.

Nobody can predict with certainty whether the development of the past will actually repeat itself. However, it is certain that share prices will rise in the long term. At some point, they will at least reach their previous highs again – and if the economy is back on track, they will go further. So investing in the next weeks and months could be worthwhile.

As always, the golden rules of equity investment apply: investors should only invest as much money as they do not need for other purchases in the short to medium term. Even those who fear a job loss due to the crisis or who earn less money due to short-time work should leave a sufficient buffer in their account. In addition, investors should not put everything on one card, but rather diversify their equity portfolio by dividing their money between different regions and between larger and smaller companies.

There is an opportunity in every crisis. This also applies to the German stock culture. A good opportunity to get started is not boom times, but times of crisis.

More: Analysts now see these 18 stocks as bargains.

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Investment experts were too euphoric

Frankfurt At the end of the week, many investors have regained their courage after there have been some hopeful reports in the fight against the corona virus.

Even if a drug to treat Covid-19 was found quickly, the way back to normality would be a long and rocky one, said portfolio manager Thomas Altmann from the investment advisor QC Partners. “The consequences of the economic lockdown at company level and the rise in the unemployment rate cannot simply be reversed.”

Timo Emden from the analytical company of the same name said something similar. “Investors are longing for the big hit in the corona pandemic,” he said. For the market, however, it is still clear that even an active ingredient is not a panacea for the affected global economy.

The German Leading index Dax climbed to 10,756 points on Friday. By the close of trading, however, he surrendered part of the profits and closed with a gain of almost 3.4 percent at 10,642 points. The development of the EuroStoxx 50 is similar: the European stock market index went out of trading with an increase of 2.7 percent at 2,888 points. In the US, investors were also initially in good spirits on Friday. The Dow Jones ended the year up 2.9 percent at 24,216 points.

Badly hit global economy

Jochen Stanzl, chief market analyst of the broker CMC Markets, compared the current increases in the stock market indices with the situation before the big sell-off in December and January. “Even now soaring technology stocks are driving like Netflix, Amazon and Tesla attention away from the fact that the real economy is in ruins, ”he said. “In the end, these companies will do good business, but they won’t save the global economy.”

Despite all the euphoria, the companies are “facing a major adjustment process, accelerated by the additional costs and burdens from the lockdown,” says Stanzl. At the moment, no one could say what the size of company closures would be in the end and how long it would keep stock exchanges from reaching the old highs.

In view of the relaxation of the contact restrictions, Jörg Krämer, chief economist at Commerzbankthat the economy will pick up strongly in the short term. “In the long term, however, there are considerable dangers – for example, due to the sharply increasing corporate debts caused by the crisis,” he said. A V-shaped upturn, i.e. a very rapid pickup in the economy, is unlikely. Rather, a gradual return to growth can be expected.

Jörg Krämer

The chief economist at Commerzbank expects the economy to pick up strongly in the short term.

In the coming week, the developments around the corona virus and current figures on the economic situation will continue to be the dominant topics on the markets. For example, stock marketers are eagerly awaiting the EU’s virus crisis summit next Thursday. Among other things, there will be a possible inclusion of jointly guaranteed debts to overcome the pandemic consequences.

In addition, shareholders will increasingly look at the quarterly figures of individual companies in the coming week. After companies in other countries have already submitted figures for the first quarter, the balance sheet season is now also beginning in Germany. The kick-off is as usual SAP.

In the current balance sheet season, a total slump in profits of 40 percent can be expected, said Ulrich Stephan, chief investment strategist for private and corporate customers at German bank. Nevertheless, he is optimistic: thanks to the multi-billion dollar aid packages from central banks and governments, investors are looking beyond current developments and are concentrating on profits in the second half of the year and 2021.

Entry into the stock market

Given the current price gains, some investors are wondering whether they have already missed the best opportunity to enter stocks. According to the DZ Bank analysts, the volatility will remain high for the time being due to the continuing uncertainties caused by the corona virus and further price setbacks cannot be ruled out. “From previous stock market cycles, we know that after a recession has bottomed out, the stock market has the highest and most sustained growth rates,” said DZ-Bank. “It will take some time before this low is reached. Our economists see this so far in the second quarter of 2020. “

Looking ahead to the coming years, the DZ Bank analysts expect: “By 2022/23, the Dax companies could earn as much again as in the previous record year 2018, and the Dax could reach its highest level again in 13,800 points in 2024.” Who in the continue to buy shares in the coming quarters, should achieve very good long-term investment results. However, it is important to only have shares in companies in the portfolio whose prospects are viewed positively over a three or five year period.

Altmaier wants to gradually ramp up the economy

This is how it will continue in the coming week:

Monday: At the beginning of the week, quarterly figures of Philips, Vivendi, and IBM expected. In Japan, figures on foreign trade are published in March, in Germany data on producer prices in March. The Bundesbank also publishes its monthly report.

Tuesday: The balance sheet season starts and SAP starts as usual. However, the software company had already published preliminary results in early April and lowered the full-year targets. In addition, Netflix, London Stock Exchange (LSE) and Coke Numbers before. The ZEW index provides information on the mood of German stock exchange professionals. UK unemployment figures come from London.

Wednesday: Preliminary data on consumer confidence in the euro zone are expected from Brussels. Lay at the company Alcoa, Ericsson, Caterpillar, Heineken and Roche first quarter figures.

Thursday: The publication of the GfK index will give an indication of the Germans’ buying mood. Alexander Roose, chief equity investor at asset manager Degroof Petercam, expects consumer confidence to “be severely impacted by the severe recession in the services sector due to rising health care costs and lower purchasing power”. In addition, the preliminary Markit purchasing manager index for the euro zone (industry, service, composite) is published. In the United States, the number of initial jobless claims for the week ending April 18 is published. Among other things, they provide insights into their books Credit Suisse, Volvo, Renault, Unilever and Intel.

Friday: At the end of the week, the Ifo index is on the schedule. It provides information about the mood on the German executive floors. Experts expect another slide to 77.2 points from 86.1 points in the previous month. In the United States, data on orders for durable US goods are also published. Experts expect a drop of 11.4 percent. Quarterly figures come from Sanofi, American Express and Nestle.

More: Yield in Corona times: With which investments you can still earn money

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