How professionals position themselves on the stock exchange

Frankfurt Stock Exchange

Many investors are puzzled as to where the markets will go.


(Photo: dpa)

Frankfurt The uncertainty is great. The oil price and many stock prices are in the basement. The mood among many managers is bad. The corona crisis keeps the financial markets in suspense every day. Many investors are now thinking more than ever about where to invest their money in these unstable times.

Because the violent ups and downs on the markets shows that there is still no peace on the stock exchanges. This leaves many investors in doubt about their previous investments. Keep or prefer to sell? This is an important question for many investors, especially with equities.

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Infrastructure funds can be a good alternative

Wind farm in Thuringia

Investors should look closely at which companies invest funds. This could be companies from the wind energy sector.


(Photo: dpa)

Frankfurt They still exist, the boring investments that deliver their returns even in times of crisis. Certainly not 20 percent can be achieved with it, as with shares in good years. But they already achieve an average return of four to five percent. This applies to infrastructure funds, for example, which can be an interesting alternative to stocks for private investors and ensure stable earnings.

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Gold price rises above 1600 euros for the first time

Gold bars and bullion coins

Frankfurt The gold price reached a new record high in euros on Thursday. For the first time, the price for one troy ounce (31.1 grams) exceeded the 1600 euro mark. In the meantime, it was up to 1603 euros. Gold was traded in US dollars at $ 1,725. The record high of $ 1900, reached in 2011, is still a long way off.

Gold demand is driven above all by the high level of uncertainty surrounding the corona pandemic. Gold is considered crisis protection for some investors. In addition, there is a surge in debt at the state level – a consequence of the massive countermeasures to contain the pathogen Sars-CoV-2.

Some forecasters therefore expect inflation to rise in the medium or longer term. Gold is also popular as a hedge against inflation. A number of banks and asset managers have therefore adjusted their gold price forecast upwards in recent days and weeks.

On Thursday, the gold price also broke out of a rather atypical pattern that has dominated the precious metal markets in recent weeks. As Carlo Alberto de Casa, chief analyst at the brokerage firm ActiveTrades, observes, gold has recently moved in line with the stock markets.

Silver hardly benefits

With stronger selling waves on the stock exchanges, the gold price came under pressure. Gold prices, on the other hand, rose when investors also bet on stocks. In the past, the gold price had developed in the opposite direction to the share price.

From de Casa’s point of view, the current level of gold prices is favorable for a continuation of the price increase. The round $ 1,700 mark has skipped the precious metal significantly. “That could open the room for another rally.”

In contrast, the silver price has not kept pace. The much-noticed gold-silver ratio, i.e. the value of one ounce of gold, expressed in silver ounces, is again close to the record high. Currently, an ounce of gold costs as much as 113 ounces of silver. Therefore, from the analysts’ point of view, silver is the Bank of America (BofA) undervalued.

“Silver prices of around $ 15 an ounce are difficult to justify,” they write in a study published on Thursday. The investment demand for silver has recently picked up again. Both physically deposited index funds as well as silver coins and bars have recently been in greater demand. BofA analysts are therefore convinced: “Silver could rise to up to $ 20 an ounce in the next twelve months.”

With agency material.

More: Why gold index funds benefit from the lack of bars and coins.

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Short ETF speculation is tricky

Bull and bear on the edge of a crumbling cliff

To bet on price losses on the stock exchanges is only worthwhile in the short term.

(Photo: imago images / Ikon Images)

Equities, oil, gold – a look at the fund balance sheet for the first quarter shows that the bottom line is that investors have lost a lot of money in most asset classes. Investors who bet on falling prices have made money, but these bets are tricky.

So-called short ETFs are one way of speculating on falling prices from indices. These exchange-traded index funds reflect the opposite percentage development of indices.

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Investors are heavily invested, increasing the risk of a setback

Dusseldorf With regard to the stock market, investors are currently asking three questions: Has the worst survived on the financial markets? Is it time to buy the stocks that sold the most? Or should the recovery be used to make the portfolio crisis-proof for the next low blow?

Sentiment expert Stephan Heibel describes the current mood as “wait and see neutral”. The owner of the analysis house Animusx evaluates the weekly Handelsblatt survey on stock market sentiment, called Dax-Sentiment, among more than 3500 investors.

As long as the facts about the future easing measures and the economic effects do not become clearer, Heibel’s view should not see any major swings in one direction or the other: “Downside potential threatens during the reporting season, because company numbers will become the extent of the economic trend in the coming days and weeks Show damage to the quarantine measures. “

However, the sentiment analysis this week does not provide a clear recommendation to investors’ questions. “Gains in prices such as the opening on today’s trading day are an opportunity to sell one or the other position in the portfolio in order to have enough cash for subsequent purchases in the event of a setback,” says Heibel.

After the panic mood in March followed the bargain hunters, who are currently taking their speculative profits with them. Now the Dax has left its sales level again. If prices continued to rise, individual stocks and sectors would again be overvalued in Heibel’s view.

Among other things, the investment quota is queried in his more extensive Animusx sentiment survey. This rate is already back at a relatively high level. Many investors are already heavily invested again, as the overbought constitution of the US stock barometer S&P 500 shows, which has risen too high too quickly. “This means that the possibility of a continuation of the recovery rally is limited in the short term, the risk of a setback is greater,” explains Heibel. Because if many investors are already heavily invested, few potential buyers remain.

Results of the current survey

Overall, the mood among investors is divided: relief on the one hand that Chancellor Angela Merkel took the direction of “easing” on Wednesday. Disappointment on the other hand about the moderate steps.

This can also be seen from the current results of the Handelsblatt survey Dax-Sentiment. The panicky mood of the previous weeks has evaporated, but nobody can really be happy about the low stock market level. The short-term sentiment is neutral.

Accordingly, complacency is not yet back. Uncertainty remains a dominant feeling among investors, because politicians have only announced action “on sight”. How long will this exceptional situation last? Uncertainty about the answer to this question continues to cause great uncertainty among shareholders.

Investor expectations are also slipping further in the Handelsblatt survey. With a minus of 0.3 the bears dominate over the bulls for the first time since February. Because the hope for a quick end to the measures has been destroyed. Everyone will have to live with the special situation longer than we previously imagined.

Before that, investors hoped for a short shutdown followed by a violent restart including a backlog that should more than compensate for the losses in the second half of the year.

Since this hope has been destroyed, investors no longer want to invest. The willingness to invest has also decreased further. At the end of March, this sub-area of ​​the Dax sentiment reached a historic high of 5.8, since the start of the survey in September 2014, more investors than ever have been invested. Now this value has dropped to just 1.1.

Look at other indicators

The Stuttgart Euwax sentiment, in which private investors trade, has dropped to minus 11.4. That leads to the conclusion: They are buying more hedging products against falling prices again because they fear a second sell-off wave.

The professionals who secure themselves through the Frankfurt derivatives exchange Eurex, on the other hand, are betting on further rising prices. The put-call ratio has dropped to 0.8 and the average is 1.5. Institutionals have bought significantly more calls.

In the weeks before, the hedging positions of investment professionals in the United States were significantly larger than in Germany. But the put-call ratio of the Chicago futures exchange CBOE is currently returning to a normal level.

The investment ratio in US fund manager shares rose only marginally from 27 percent to 29 percent and remains at a historically low level. US private investors remain pessimistic, the bull-bear ratio is minus eight percent.

The “fear and greed indicator” of the US stock markets, calculated on the basis of technical market data, now shows a neutral state of the markets again with 44 percent. Other short-term indicators indicate that a correction in the US equity markets is imminent.

More: Exaggeratedly cheap: Analysts now see these 18 stocks as bargains

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The corona crisis is an opportunity for German equity culture

Bull and bear

Turbulent stock market times can be a good opportunity to get into stocks.


(Photo: dpa)

Frankfurt The number of shareholders in Germany has been at a low level for years. According to the German Stock Institute (DAI), it even fell again last year. Just 9.7 percent of Germans were recently invested in stocks or equity funds. The fact that the share prices of companies have plummeted due to the corona crisis is therefore only a cause for annoyance for a minority of German citizens. For others, it can be a good opportunity to finally become a shareholder.

First of all, they will need good nerves. The analysts at DZ-Bank, for example, assume that volatility will remain high for the time being due to the continuing uncertainties caused by the corona virus – prices will fluctuate more strongly. New setbacks cannot be ruled out either. In addition, they point out that the highest and most sustained rate of increase in the stock market in the past was only after the low point of a recession. They estimate that this could be achieved in the second quarter of 2020.

Nobody can predict with certainty whether the development of the past will actually repeat itself. However, it is certain that share prices will rise in the long term. At some point, they will at least reach their previous highs again – and if the economy is back on track, they will go further. So investing in the next weeks and months could be worthwhile.

As always, the golden rules of equity investment apply: investors should only invest as much money as they do not need for other purchases in the short to medium term. Even those who fear a job loss due to the crisis or who earn less money due to short-time work should leave a sufficient buffer in their account. In addition, investors should not put everything on one card, but rather diversify their equity portfolio by dividing their money between different regions and between larger and smaller companies.

There is an opportunity in every crisis. This also applies to the German stock culture. A good opportunity to get started is not boom times, but times of crisis.

More: Analysts now see these 18 stocks as bargains.

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Which tech stocks are worth getting started with

Netflix

Netflix has replaced Disney as the most valuable media company this week.


(Photo: dpa)

Frankfurt, San Francisco The corona virus didn’t stop at Jeff Bezos either. When the stock markets crashed worldwide in spring, the founder of the e-commerce giant Amazon felt this. At times, the American’s fortune fell by $ 7 billion in one day alone. About a month later, nothing more can be seen.

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Alternative Investments: Return in Corona Times: How to Make Money Now

Fluctuations on the stock exchanges are extreme due to the Covid 19 pandemic. But there is a way out: alternative investments. The Handelsblatt presents them. .

Gold, hedge funds, real estate: Yield in Corona times: With which investments you can now earn money

Fluctuations on the stock exchanges are extreme due to the Covid 19 pandemic. But there is a way out: alternative investments. The Handelsblatt presents them. .