Current Dax course: Dax takes a breather

Dusseldorf The German stock market takes a breather on Wednesday. Listed in the midday trade the Dax 1.1 percent in minus at 10,246 points.

Although the Dax could Key technical chart zone in the range of 10,391 counters rise, but he could not overcome them sustainably. Sustainable means: The Dax should at least be above this mark at the close, better three trading days in a row.

In simple terms, technical chart analysts try to predict the further development of stock prices and stock indices by comparing recurring price patterns from the past with current chart graphics.

The analysts of Landesbank Helaba have past bear market rallies until 1929: Again and again there were counter movements with price increases of 30 percent after crashes on the stock markets. “In seven cases, the prices then fell so significantly that new lows followed,” the experts calculated.

The Dax is currently in a similar situation: Starting from the previous correction low of 8255 points to yesterday’s daily high of 10,590 points, the increase in the German leading index is slightly more than 28 percent.

“Not least because of this, the coming days and weeks promise to be very exciting from a technical point of view,” said the analysts at Landesbank Helaba.

Not unusual, but noteworthy: The price increases of the past two days have been accompanied by conflicting signals. Firstly, the trading volume has been average to below average.

And secondly, the VDax, the nerve barometer of the stock exchange, gone up. This means that professional investors expect significantly higher price fluctuations in the coming weeks. It is not typical. The fear barometer usually falls with rising prices and vice versa. The VDax is currently trading at 46.89 points. A few weeks ago, this value was still at the historical value of 93.30 points. The VDax only signals relaxation when the values ​​are below 20.

The US stock exchanges also gave no support on yesterday’s trading day. The Dow Jones index initially trended more than four percent stronger during the day, but then lost all gains by the end of trading and closed slightly in the red. Investors experienced the sharpest change in trend since October 14, 2008, when the Dow revealed gains of five percent within an exchange session. The Asian stock exchanges tended to be mixed.

Look at the individual values

Shop pharmacy: The online drug dealer has completed a capital increase of 65 million euros. Around 1.12 million new shares were placed at an issue price of EUR 58. The stock rose 3.2 percent after losing nearly seven percent yesterday Tuesday. Nevertheless, the paper is a winner of the corona crisis: since the beginning of the year, the paper has increased by more than 45 percent.

Vonovia: Despite the corona crisis, the housing group is sticking to its profit targets. Fortunately give Vonovia his annual goals always with a certain corridor, said CEO Rolf Buch of the “Süddeutsche Zeitung”. The share tops the Dax list of winners with an increase of 2.2 percent.

Tui: The tourism group has brought its government loan, which was applied for because of the corona crisis, under one roof. Tui has signed the contract with the development bank KfW for the bridging loan of 1.8 billion euros. Like other companies, Tui had to temporarily suspend the organizer, flight, hotel and cruise program. The stock, which was badly hit by the crisis and has lost more than 63 percent since the beginning of the year, initially rose by around ten percent after this announcement. Meanwhile, the increase in value is only 3.6 percent.

Look at other asset classes

The EU finance ministers postponed talks over a 500 billion aid package in the corona crisis after a video conference lasting several nights. Calls from Paris and Rome for joint euro bonds to build up after the crisis continue to cause considerable differences of opinion.

Because of that Italian government bond yields rise by almost six percent to a return of 1.695 percent with a term of ten years. On yesterday’s trading day, this value was now at 1.50 percent. By contrast, the yield on German government bonds fell to minus 0.335 percent after minus 0.318 on the previous day.

This postponement also has negative consequences for the euro. The European common currency falls 0.4 percent to $ 1.0844.

The weaker euro and the stronger dollar after the euro finance ministers’ disagreement initially caused the gold price to weaken. In the meantime, the troy ounce again costs $ 1,653, up 0.2 percent. According to Commerzbank’s foreign exchange analysts, the disagreement among political decision-makers in Europe speaks for gold. This would make the ECB step in as a cleaner and buy more bonds. Gold in euros should therefore soon make a new attempt at the all-time high experts say.

Before the meeting of the major oil producing countries There is hope for a reduction in production volumes on the raw material markets. Oil prices rose Wednesday after falling two days in a row. A barrel (159 liters) of the North Sea Brent increased in price by up to 3.4 percent to $ 32.96. US light oil WTI cost up to seven percent more at $ 25.29.

“It is now important that the oil price is stabilized in order to avoid unnecessary credit risks amid the already unpredictable negative economic effects of the corona shutdown,” said Jochen Stanzl, chief market analyst at the CMC Markets trading house Give sale on the oil market.

What the chart technique says

The struggle for the important mark of 10,391 points remains because the leading German index failed to overcome it at the closing price.
On the bottom there are a number of upward price gaps that show how difficult it is for investors to value the market.

Such price gaps arise when the highest price of a day remains below that of the following day. Yesterday Tuesday the lowest price was 10,225 points, the highest price on Monday was 10,097 points. Such upward gaps are important resistance according to chart technology.

“From a risk point of view, this upward price gap is predestined as a hedge,” say the technical analysts at Düsseldorf Bank HSBC. If the leading German index falls below the 10,097 point mark, this increases the risk that the index will continue to slide.

“When planning wealth, the rule is: never get out completely!”

Here is the page with the DAX course, here is the current tops & flops in the Dax. Current Short sales of investors can be found in our Short sales database.


Customers remain loyal – almost no cash outflows in March

Frankfurt While investors in Europe fled from investment funds with the outbreak of the corona crisis, Dekabank’s business has remained almost stable. Georg Stocker, the new chief executive of the savings bank fund service provider, said on Tuesday: “Looking at sales shows that customers have reacted very prudently so far.” In March there were almost no net outflows overall, Stocker continued. This applies to both private and institutional investors.

This means that Deka is in a much better position than other asset managers. According to an analysis by the rating agency Morningstar, funds in Europe have recently suffered violent outflows. According to the estimate, based on around 90 percent of all funds offered in Europe, investors sold shares for a good EUR 200 billion net in the crisis month of March.

The final numbers will be even higher. The Morningstar estimate does not include institutional business with large investors.

By contrast, Deka is supported by the business with securities savings plans. In the first twelve weeks of this year, it sold more than 250,000 savings plans. “The now well over five million savings plans are a clearly stabilizing factor for our portfolio,” said Stocker.

The former head of Sparkassenvertrieb, who has been a member of the Deka Executive Board for a long time, moved to the top of the company at the beginning of the year, succeeding Michael Rüdiger. Stocker emphasized that Deka had come through the crisis properly so far. “We are well prepared for any further aggravation of the situation.”

Like other financial institutions, Deka did not want to make a forecast for 2020. The economic consequences of the corona virus are not yet foreseeable, said the Deka boss. Deka is one of the largest asset managers in Germany. At the end of 2019, it was managing a good 310 billion euros. The recent stock market turmoil has reduced the value by around 25 billion euros.

Deka boss defends certificate strategy

Last year, the fund company, which belongs to around 380 German savings banks, earned slightly less than in 2018. The so-called economic result fell from 452 million euros to 434 million euros. The result was burdened by provisions for pensions. The economic result differs in some items from classic earnings indicators, for example in certain interest rate transactions.

In 2019, Deka raised a net 18 billion euros, significantly more than in the previous year. A good 11 billion euros of this came from private customers. They invested five billion euros in certificates and six billion euros in funds. Deka has only been issuing certificates for a few years, but is now the market leader in Germany according to the derivatives association DDV.

Consumer advocates repeatedly warn of risks of loss through certificates and sometimes consider the products to be too complicated. Stocker defended Deka’s approach: According to him, a small part of the certificates due in 2020 are currently in the red. It is about certificates with a volume of 350 million euros, which corresponds to 2.5 percent of the total volume of certificates of 14 billion euros. “The extent to which the nominal amount will still be repaid depends on how the market develops until the due date.”

A large part of the Deka certificates are interest-oriented and not related to the stock market, Stocker explained. Many share certificates, in turn, would have buffers and would run even longer. The certificates were deliberately chosen “so that extreme situations like now have a negative development”.

Dekabank expects the gross domestic product to decline by almost five percent in the current year. A plus is expected for the coming year. Deka chief economist Ulrich Kater said that if this happened, one would be confident that the Dax achieve 11,500 points again next year. The leading German index fell by a good 30 percent within six weeks. It fell below 8500 points at times, but has since recovered somewhat.

The corona crisis also has an impact on the desired consolidation of the top public law institutes: It is on hold for an indefinite period, as savings bank president Helmut Schleweis said just under three weeks ago. He has in mind that ultimately there is only one central institute for the savings banks. The starting point should be a possible merger between Deka and Landesbank Hessen-Thüringen, which is majority owned by savings banks.

The talks between the two Frankfurt institutes only started shortly after the beginning of the year. However, resistance from various sides within the Sparkassen-Finanzgruppe had become clear. There are currently four large Landesbanken: in addition to Helaba, LBBW in Stuttgart, BayernLB in Munich and NordLB in Hanover.

More: Private investors are particularly affected by breakdown series on trading platforms.


Dax is again targeting 10,000 points

Dusseldorf The leading German index starts with significant price gains into the new trading week and can briefly overcome the 10,000 meter mark. Listed in the afternoon trade the Dax 4.8 percent increase at 9980 points. The daily high is exactly 10,000 points, more than 450 points higher than on Friday.

The winners list is led by industrial stocks: The MTU-Shares rise after an interim plus of more than twelve Percent still seven percent, VW– Papers gain almost 9.5 percent, Daimler gain more than eight percent.

All 30 Dax values ​​are in the plus. Bank stocks are also among the winners. The European banking index rose 6.4 percent, led by the last shaken Natixis-Share from France with an increase in value of 14 percent.

Last Friday, the leading German index closed 0.5 percent lower at 9526 points. However, there were signs of easing after the index failed to respond to the miserable US job market data.

The stock exchanges in Asia closed clearly in positive territory, but is not traded in China due to public holidays. After the losses last Friday, the futures contracts for the New York stock exchanges showed strong gains: According to this, the stock market index should S&P 500 3.6 percent higher on Monday open.

The reason for the significant increase in the German stock market: Falling numbers in some European countries give rise to hope that the worst in the corona crisis could be over. They are in Germany alone New infections for the fourth day in a row declining. The Robert Koch Institute (RKI) reported another 3677 confirmed cases this Monday. The number rose to a total of 95,391. The increase was less than the 5936 new infections announced on Sunday.

But such numbers are already a thing Exit scenario in terms of quarantine measures conceivable? Chancellor Angela Merkel named the only benchmark for answering this question. In her video message from the previous weekend, she indicated that with a growth rate of seven percent per day (“doubling within ten days”) the restrictions could be relaxed.

“We should already be there,” says CommerzbankForeign exchange analyst Ulrich Leuchtmann. In his view, there is growing concern that there is no end in sight in this country. His calculation: With 6,000 new infections per day, it would take between 18 and 24 years in Germany until sufficient herd immunization was achieved. “Hopefully you made yourself comfortable in your home office,” is his humorous comment.

The upward movement on the Frankfurt Stock Exchange should therefore only be a relief rally for the time being be within the medium term downtrend. In order to achieve a real turnaround, a Covid-19 drug would probably have to be brought onto the market or at least an approximate end to the economic restrictions can be foreseen. Before that, the equity markets are unlikely to rise sustainably.

This view also confirms investor sentiment. After evaluating the current Handelsblatt survey Dax-Sentiment, Stephan Heibel advises: “If you have positions in your portfolio with which you would probably not get through another sell-off wave nervously, then you should part with it today.”

German industry is doing better than expected, even though new business declined before the corona crisis began. The companies collected 1.4 percent fewer orders in February than in the previous month, but economists had expected a decrease of 2.4 percent, after a strong order increase of 4.8 percent in January.

Given the global economic shock from the corona pandemic, however, is one Incoming orders slump in March and April as well as overall strong production losses in the first and second quarters.

Look at individual values

Commerzbank: The corona crisis gives the bank one large influx of private customers. The bank and her daughter have had since the beginning of the year Comdirect 130,000 new private customers won, mainly online, said private customer board member Michael Mandel. In the last week of March alone, 10,000 customers were added. “Obviously, a lot of people currently have time to deal with their banking business.” The share price rises by 7.1 percent.

Evotec: The biotech company is building a new mainstay in promising gene therapy business on. In the Austrian town of Orth an der Donau, a team of more than 20 scientists is to advance the research and development of gene therapy-based projects. It has already secured a first order: The Japanese pharmaceutical company Takeda has entered into a long-term research alliance Evotec a. The share rises by around three percent.

The stock is interesting because several hedge funds have bet on falling Evotec prices. As of last Friday, this so-called short sale rate was 7.3 percent, an unusually high figure.

Thyssen-Krupp: With a plus of more than twelve percent, the shares of the former industrial icon were among the big winners in the MDax small cap index. On the one hand, industrial papers were in demand as losers in the crash phase on Monday. The automotive supplier Hella and aircraft manufacturer Airbus also benefit from this. But at Thyssen-Krupp, too, hedge funds play a crucial role in their betting on falling prices to ensure that trading is volatile.

Betting on falling prices, known in the technical sense as short sales, works according to the following principle: Investors borrow shares from companies where they expect price losses. They sell these papers afterwards and hope that the prices will drop. Then you can buy the shares back later and give them back to the lender. The difference between the short sale and the subsequent buyback is then the profit.

Already at the end of March, Thyssen-Krupp papers peaked by almost 50 percent on two days with a high trading volume. As at the end of March, shares are likely to have bought back on Monday. The result will be available on Wednesday at the latest when the funds have to publish their short selling rates.

Rolls-Royce / PSA: Securing new credit lines with the British engine manufacturer ensured the individual values Rolls-Royce as well as the French car company PSA for buoyancy. Rolls-Royce stocks shot up up to 21.2 percent after the supplier left airbus and Boeing secured another £ 1.5 billion line of credit. However, the long-established company has lost more than half of its market value this year and is cutting its dividend for the first time in over 30 years.

Peugeot parent PSA also secured another three billion euros in loans to better position itself against the financial impact of the corona crisis. PSA shares rose as a result up to 12.4 percent.

Look at other asset classes

The gold price is rising again. A troy ounce now costs $ 1,630, an increase of 0.7 percent. At the beginning of March, the price was just under $ 1,500 because investors needed cash after the price slump in the stock markets.

The gold ETFs (exchange-traded index funds) recorded by the economic service Bloomberg recorded inflows of twelve tons on Friday. It was 47 tons in the entire week. The speculators, however, remain cautious.

Oil prices are falling again. A meeting scheduled for Monday of oil-producing countries that have merged into the so-called Opec plus has been postponed to Thursday.
In early Monday trading, a barrel (159 liters) of North Sea Brent cost $ 32.90 to ship in June, down 3.5 percent. The price of a barrel of American WTI with delivery in May dropped 2.7 percent to $ 27.50.

US President Donald Trump threatened tariffs on crude oil imports. “I’ll do whatever it takes,” Trump said at the White House on Saturday night. The background is the drastic drop in prices on the crude oil market. It goes back to a double crisis, consisting of a massive drop in demand due to the corona pandemic and the price war on the oil market. The US fracking industry in particular is suffering from the low prices.

Given the increasing optimism in the fight against the coronavirus pandemic, investors are withdrawing from government bonds that are considered a “safe haven”. In return, most yields on bonds in top-rated eurozone countries rose two to three basis points. Ten-year German government bonds yielded minus 0.4 percent three basis points firmer and thus significantly higher than the record low of minus 0.91 percent reached a month ago.

What the chart technique says

With the plus of the opening of trading on Monday, the downside risk for the leading German index will decrease. “Even if the picture brightens at short notice, it should be noted that all Dax values ​​are still below both the 200 and the 50-day average”, say Helaba’s technical analysts. With 23 titles, the 50 line also runs below the 200 day line. “In the past, such pronounced constellations only allowed limited scope on the top,” is their assessment.

According to the chart technique, the range from 10,138 up to and including 10,391 points is decisive. Among other things, there is the low of December 2018 with 10,279 points, the starting signal for the rally until mid-February 2020 with the previous record high. “This is the decisive hurdle in chart technology, the skipping of which would put the German standard values ​​on a quick recovery path,” say the technical analysts at Düsseldorfer Bank HSBC.

The small downward price gap from last Tuesday was closed, also a positive sign. Such downward price gaps arise when the daily low of the previous day is above the daily high of the subsequent trading day. The daily low on Tuesday was 9703 points, the following high of Wednesday was reached at 9686 points.

“When planning wealth, the rule is: never get out completely!”

Here is the page with the DAX course, here is the current tops & flops in the Dax. Current Short sales of investors can be found in our Short sales database.


Strategists hope for the second half of the year

Frankfurt For the time being, grit your teeth and survive the darkening situation. For the second half of the year, however, the stock market experts hope that the economy will revive if there are successes in curbing the Covid 19 virus and the restrictions on public life are relaxed again.

Investors on the stock markets meanwhile seem to be turning into a kind of wait-and-see attitude, after which the stocks are still down by a good 30 percent after a crash since mid-February and an intermediate recovery. Last week, the leading indices in the western world fell between one and two percent.

After the huge turmoil on the financial markets in the first quarter of 2020, the situation there should remain uneasy for now, my strategists. Robert Greil, chief strategist at Bank Merck Finck says: “In view of the open core question of how quickly economic activities will start up again worldwide, the second quarter will be extremely difficult both economically and in terms of stock exchange technology.”

Due to the persistently high level of uncertainty, he expects the markets to remain highly nervous despite glimpses of infection rates, for example. In the next few weeks, “fears will still prevail on the capital markets,” says Michael Bissinger from DZ Bank.

The central banks and governments tried to limit the corona damage that occurred with interest rate cuts and liquidity commitments. Nevertheless, according to the analyst, various sectors such as the aviation and tourism industries, but also the automotive industry, will suffer greatly.

He estimates that corporate earnings in Europe will decrease by ten to 20 percent in 2020. Many smaller companies could face bigger problems, which should have a negative impact on the unemployment rate.

Strategists recognize potential for catching up with stocks

But in the second half of the year strategists and analysts expect the political measures taken to take effect, the virus to be contained and the economy to turn around again. Greil von Merck Finck emphasizes: “With the increasingly bleak short-term economic prospects, it is becoming increasingly important that the global economy will recover significantly as soon as possible in the second half of the year.”

Such an economic sigh of relief should also inspire the stock markets more strongly again, adds Bissinger from DZ Bank – especially since the liquidity environment for the financial markets remains friendly due to “extensive stimuli” by the central banks.

DZ Bank analysts expect major indices to recover by around 20 percent by the end of the year after the stock price crash. They have lowered their index forecasts. But the German Leading index Dax see at the end of 2020 at 11,500 points, the leading euro zone index Euro Stoxx 50 at 3,200 points and the most important US index S&P 500 at 3,000 points.

So it could be “one of the best investment opportunities for equity investors” for decades, Bissinger emphasizes. Other strategists find that the stock exchanges in the Sars epidemic were weak as long as the number of infections rose about 17 years ago. When the number of new infections then decreased, the share prices recovered.

Economic downturn in Europe and the US in the second quarter

However, economic data is likely to deteriorate significantly in the second quarter. This suggests extremely weak leading indicators in Europe such as the purchasing manager indices. “Our data indicate a slump in the euro economic output of almost ten percent,” said Chris Williamson, chief economist at the market research institute Markit.

For the United States, where the pandemic appears to be worsening more than in Europe, analysts expect the economy to plunge even more sharply: analysts from the US bank believe Morgan Stanley a 38 percent slump in US economic output in the second quarter is possible – that’s more than it has been since the post-war year 1946.

Unemployment in the USA feared

The situation on the US labor market already deteriorated in March, as the official labor market report on Friday showed. Accordingly, many more jobs have been cut in the USA than expected. Last month, 701,000 non-agricultural jobs were cut instead of the expected 100,000 hobs.

“The labor market was already affected by the corona pandemic and the lockdown of the national economy in March,” comments Ralf Umlauf, Helaba economist. It is the first and very significant monthly job loss since 2010. According to experts, the worst is still ahead, as the effects of the pandemic in March cannot yet be fully recognized.

The day before, an extreme, surprisingly high number of first-time jobless claims for the United States had been announced. In the week the value was 6.65 million new unemployed, again higher than the previous record 3.28 million in the previous week. 3.5 million new applicants were expected.

The labor market situation in the US describes circulation at Helaba as “catastrophic”. Because of different survey times, the job losses in the official job market report were still reported as moderate, he says. But over the course of the year, he expects record unemployment in the USA: The unemployment rate is likely to “skyrocket to a double-digit level” from the current 4.4 percent in April.

Against this backdrop, investors and traders are eagerly awaiting the economic data to be released in the coming week. Orders for German industry are scheduled for February on Monday. Experts expect a drop of two percent here.

The significantly weaker demand from China, which had shut down its economy earlier than other countries due to the corona virus, is making itself felt here Commerzbank– Economist Ralph Solveen. However, the crisis will probably only take full effect in the March figures.

Industrial production for Germany follows in February, which is said to have decreased slightly. At the end of the week, the University of Michigan announced its preliminary consumer confidence for the United States in April. Here, too, analysts expect a significant decline.

Speculation about funding cuts in the Opec + countries

On the oil market, investors speculated on an impending agreement between the major producing countries of the “OPEC +” group, which, in addition to the members of the export cartel, include other producing countries such as Russia. You expect further production cuts. The price of a barrel of North Sea oil of the Brent variety rose by more than 14 percent on Friday to just under $ 34.

According to speculation, throttling by ten million barrels (barrel of 159 liters) per day is under discussion. If the cut were even more pronounced, states outside the alliance would also have to make their contribution.

US President Donald Trump said Thursday that the two clinched exporters Saudi Arabia and Russia have agreed on a 10 to 15 million barrel cut a day. This triggered a record price jump in oil: The price for crude oil from the North Sea rose briefly by around 25 percent and that for US crude oil by around 20 percent.

Saudi Arabia alone is currently pumping a record twelve million barrels a day. Restrictions to contain the pandemic have reduced global crude oil demand by around a third or 30 million barrels a day within a few weeks.

More: The stock indices have recently moved significantly from their lows. But such interim recoveries are not yet a sign of an all-clear – a comment.


Dax closes slightly in the red – US labor market data show hardly any effects

Dax curve

View of the Dax curve in the Frankfurt trading hall.

(Photo: dpa)

Dusseldorf The Dax reacted relatively calmly to the job cuts in the USA on Friday. After an initially unsteady ups and downs, the leading German index fell only slightly after the US labor market data was published and closed 0.5 percent lower at 9526 points. in the Course of the week is that Minus at more than one percent.

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Like other financial institutions, the Landesbank Hessen-Thüringen is suspending the dividend payment for the time being.

(Photo: dpa)

Frankfurt An increasing number of banks are following the recommendation of the supervisory authorities and suspend distributions to their owners. The Landesbank Hessen-Thüringen (Helaba) is not paying a dividend for the time being. A Helaba spokesman said on request that the bank’s governing bodies would put off the decision until the fourth quarter of this year.

Just over a week ago, Helaba had said it was planning a distribution. It was a sum of 90 million euros. The Landesbank is majority owned by the savings banks in Hesse and Thuringia, and the two federal states are also responsible.


DZ Bank and Helaba postpone dividend

NAccording to information from the F.A.Z. DZ Bank, the top institution of the Volks- und Raiffeisenbanken, will not vote on the dividend at the Annual General Meeting in May, contrary to plan. Decisions on this will only be made in autumn. The Landesbank Hessen-Thüringen (Helaba) is also, according to the F.A.Z. – Contrary to the announcement made on March 25th – now make no partial profit distribution to its owners, i.e. to savings banks and the federal states of Hesse and Thuringia. The boards of the Sparkassen-Fondsgesellschaft Deka had already adjourned the decision on the dividend on Thursday. Bayern LB is also postponing, as announced on Friday.

Hanno Mussler

The top institutes of the Volksbanken and Sparkassen have had to learn in the past few days that they cannot trust the words of Bundesbank board member Joachim Wuermeling. The latter had told them last weekend that they were not affected by the European Central Bank’s (ECB) supervision of the dividend block until October. After all, the banking system did not lose the dividends that these top institutions distributed, after all, Wuermeling’s argument was that their owners themselves were banks. The EU banking regulator Eba had only advised against profit distributions that flow outside the banking system.

ECB stricter than Bundesbank

However, the ECB’s chief supervisor, Andrea Enria, increased the pressure again this week and made the recommendation of March 27 an “urgent recommendation” to the major banks it oversees to hold the money together in the crisis. As a result, Commerzbank canceled its dividend, but Aareal Bank and Deutsche Pfandbriefbank, which are also represented in the M-Dax, are – still – sticking to it.

While the planned distribution of Aareal and Pfandbriefbank is lavish in terms of the low share prices, the dividends at the top institutions of the financial associations are rather symbolic. Bayern LB, which is 75 percent owned by the Free State of Bavaria and 25 percent by the Bavarian savings banks, wants to pay a total of 150 million in dividends from the net profit of 463 million euros in 2019. DZ Bank plans to distribute a net profit of EUR 330 million from EUR 1900 million in autumn, while Helaba plans to distribute EUR 90 million from EUR 480 million.


Dax at the previous day’s level – US labor market data show no effects

Dusseldorf Weak US labor market data hardly affected the Dax at noon. In the morning, investors had already reacted calmly to the weaker than expected economic data, the Dax was only slightly in the red. Shortly before the release of the US labor market data, the index had even worked up to the previous day’s level. It currently stands at 9574 points – three points up.

On Friday, investors primarily looked at the new US job market data released at 2:30 p.m. Central European Time. Last month, 701,000 non-agricultural jobs were cut in the United Statesthe government announced on Friday. Economists surveyed by Reuters had only expected 100,000 in March, after 273,000 jobs were created last month.

In the past two weeks alone, a total of around ten million Americans have already applied for unemployment benefits, a historic figure. And the impact of these initial applications can hardly be seen in the figures now published. Therefore, these are not very meaningful CommerzbankEconomist Bernd Weidensteiner warned before the publication: “The cut-off date for the so-called ‘payrolls’ was before the initial applications exploded. These figures will only be fully reflected in the next month. “

For the Commerzbank analyst Antje Praefcke, the unemployment rate in the USA could easily rise into the double-digit range in April and thus outshine everything that the Post-war history has to offer at highs. The previous high was 10.2 percent in 1982.

How much the corona crisis is affecting the global economy can be explained by a number: According to Handelsblatt calculations, the 50,805 companies listed worldwide lost 19.4 trillion euros in just six weeks. So far, this decay has been unique in such a short time. With this sum, all of Europe’s public debt could be repaid, and there would still be five trillion euros left.

New economic data from China can not inspire the markets, but signal relaxation. The service sector there recovered only slowly in March from the countless shop closures in the midst of the coronavirus outbreak. The Caixin / Markit Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) for the service sector, released on Friday, rose from its record low of 26.5 in February to 43 in March. Nevertheless, it was the second weakest value since the start of the survey at the end of 2005. Values ​​below 50 points mean that activities have shrunk.

Over the course of the day, purchasing managers’ indices in Europe also became published on the service sector. These showed that the corona crisis hits service providers in Germany and in the euro zone with even greater force than previously assumed. The purchasing manager index for the German service sector fell to 31.7 points in March from 52.5 points in February. This is the most significant slump since the company survey began in 1997 and at the same time a record low. An initial estimate had only dropped to 34.5 points. The barometer, which has received a lot of attention on the financial markets, only signals growth from 50 points.

The service sector is particularly hard hit by the corona crisis, since the travel and tourism industry, the hospitality industry and the leisure industry suffer massively from the restrictions imposed. “The impact of the pandemic and the resulting efforts to curb it are all too clear given the unprecedented slump in the German services sector in March,” said Markit economist Phil Smith.

The barometer for service providers in the euro zone was also worse than expected. It dropped to 26.4 from 52.6 points in the previous month – also a negative record. Here the preliminary result was 28.4. “Our data indicate a slump in the euro economic output of almost ten percent,” said Markit chief economist Chris Williamson. “Worse seems inevitable in the near future.”

No country was able to escape the downward trend. “But the particularly drastic drop in the Italian service index to 17.4 points gives a foretaste of what the other countries are facing due to increasing closings, curfews and tighter controls,” said Williamson. Employment is currently not falling as rapidly as during the financial crisis. However, unemployment is likely to skyrocket in the coming months.

Look at other asset classes

On Friday, oil prices initially fell significantly from the interim high on the previous day. In early trading, the price of a barrel (159 liters) of the North Sea Brent and US WTI fell by around five percent to $ 28.40 and $ 24, respectively. But within an hour the picture turned again and prices returned to Thursday’s profits: Meanwhile, the Brent price is up about eleven percent at $ 33.34, WTI is up almost seven percent and costs $ 27.09.

On Thursday, US President Donald Trump indicated cuts in funding and thus an agreement in the price war between Saudi Arabia and Russia. After a denial by the Russian government and a lack of confirmation from Riyadh, prices quickly dropped again.

“Trump has to stabilize the oil price, otherwise a wave of bankruptcies awaits us in the oil sector”

What has apparently changed the oil market again: According to insiders, the major crude oil producing countries (Opec plus) are rethinking a drastic reduction in production to stabilize prices after. Talking about throttling by ten million barrels (barrel of 159 liters) per day. If the cut were even more pronounced, states outside the alliance would also have to make their contribution.

Earlier, the Russian news agency Ria, citing the Azerbaijan Ministry of Energy, reported that Opec + would advise on its funding policy on Monday. The talks should be conducted as part of a video conference. All Opec + countries are expected to participate.

Commerzbank analysts are skeptical that the countries will agree on such large cuts. They lowered their Brent year-end forecast to $ 40 a barrel from $ 50 previously.

Look at individual values

Beiersdorf: The shares give 0.3 percent because of the manufacturer of Tesa adhesive products and Nivea-Cream has withdrawn its forecast for 2020 because of the corona crisis. So far, the stock has shown a stable stock market development compared to the other 29 DAX stocks and has only lost 15 percent or less since the stock market high on February 19 than the other stocks in the leading German index.

MTU: The shares of the engine manufacturer, on the other hand, have had the biggest loss since the record high on February 19, at minus 50 percent. And today, Friday, the decline continues with a drop of 2.7 percent.

Shop pharmacy: Online shops are among the winners of the corona crisis, including the online drug retailer Shop pharmacy. The months of January and February were already very strong, but the outbreak of the corona virus then gave a further boost in March. The number of active customers grew by 300,000 to five million in the first three months. The company now expects annual sales to be at least 20 percent above the previous year. The share continues to rise by a good six percent.

Puma: The sporting goods manufacturer is cutting the dividend for the past year because of the corona crisis. The shutdowns ordered by the authorities to contain the risk of infection in almost all parts of the world would have led to a drop in sales and a significant decrease in the operating cash flow. It is currently not foreseeable how long this situation will last. The stock loses almost four percent. The number three in the global market for sports shoes and clothing wanted to distribute 50 cents per share, a total of around 75 million euros. puma had already cut board salaries for April and registered short-time work.

What the chart technique says

The larger chart shows: From the record high of 13,795 points in mid-February, the Dax dropped to 8255 points in mid-March. The subsequent countermovement ended at 10,137 points. A normal correction of this interim increase should end at 9196 counters at the latest.

A further, rather short-term support was briefly undercut on yesterday’s trading day. With 9337 points, the Dax marked a new low of the past seven trading days. A warning shot that it could quickly go down again. According to the Düsseldorfer Bank, the Dax should definitely go back into crisis mode HSBC again at courses below 9070 points.

On the upside, the small downward price gap from last Tuesday is still slowing down. Such downward price gaps arise when the daily low of the previous day is above the daily high of the subsequent trading day. The daily low on Tuesday was 9703 points, the following high of Wednesday was reached at 9686 points.

The important brands on the top are currently a long way off. The decisive factor is the space between 10,138 and 10,391 points inclusive. Among other things, there is the low of December 2018 with 10,279 points, the starting signal for the rally until mid-February 2020 with the previous record high.

“This is the decisive hurdle in chart technology, skipping it would put the German standard values ​​on a fast recovery path,” say the technical analysts at Düsseldorf-based bank HSBC.

Here is the page with the DAX course, here is the current tops & flops in the Dax. Current Short sales of investors can be found in our Short sales database.


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