DAX outlook: mood barometer cloudy outlook

Frankfurt In the past weeks there have been repeated attempts to recover the course, on some days one could believe that the corona pandemic has already been overcome. But on Friday, disillusionment returned – the collapsed ifo business climate index made the whole dilemma clear.

The course of the mood barometer looks like a “Highway to Hell”, was the analysis of the VP Bank. The index is now significantly below the values ​​of the crisis year 2009. The simple message for the future was: “Massive income losses are imminent. We will all get poorer. This applies not only to Germany, but to all economies. ”Sometimes it is better to hear the unvarnished truth.

Other analysts and experts are also skeptical about the weekly outlook. Cautious savings by consumers and companies create a completely different economic and inflation environment than one knows from the post-war period, the analysts at MFS Investment Management believe.

They expect the earnings recovery to be weaker than the market and point to the possible dilution of earnings through capital increases. They particularly highlight 2008 as a comparison.

“When the extreme risk of the international financial crisis subsided, companies were no longer concerned with distributions, but with recapitalization. To this end, new shares were issued – at the expense of existing shareholders, whose capital was heavily diluted, ”said the investment professionals. The new wave of recapitalization has probably just started. In the past few weeks, leisure companies and service providers in the United States and Europe have already offered new shares.

Warning to bargain hunters

The BLI – Banque de Luxembourg Investments is also cautious. “The financial markets are currently giving the impression that they are underestimating the extent of the economic damage and are counting on a rapid recovery as soon as the containment measures are reversed,” is the BLI’s assessment.

Many investors are conditioned to view any decline as an opportunity to buy. However, the analysts recall that while the fall in share prices in February / March was dramatic, the valuations were also very high. As a result, the markets today are anything but cheap, especially after the recent price recovery.

Quality companies with a very solid balance sheet, one or more sustainable competitive advantages and the ability to self-finance should be preferred. The main factor that will continue to speak for stocks remains the low interest rate level and thus the lack of alternatives. At the same time, gold will become an “indispensable part of a balanced portfolio because of the inflation risks.”

After the significant recovery since mid-March, the European stock market has recently lost some momentum, the Weberbank experts believe. In addition, the balance sheet season that is already underway shows significant impacts on corporate balance sheets due to the global “lockdowns”.

Correspondingly, the analysts have also significantly lowered their profit expectations for industrial companies, but also for the banking and energy sectors. Due to the economic slump, banks faced increased write-downs on their credit books and the massive drop in yields clouded interest income. Most recently, they also negatively impacted the rating agency Standard & Poor’s (S&P).

The Deutsche Bank and the Commerzbank were therefore particularly under pressure on Friday “We continue to distance ourselves from these sectors and prefer creditworthy pharmaceuticals or companies from the non-cyclical consumption. In addition, titles from the technology sector are promising in our eyes, ”said the Weberbank experts.

Central banks meet worldwide

If the economic situation continues to be poor, the states and central banks will have to take further support measures. Robert Greil, chief strategist at Merck Finck Privatbankiers, sees an opportunity for this next week because the European Central Bank, the US Federal Reserve and the Bank of Japan are meeting.

“As a result of the unprecedented economic downturn caused by the Covid 19 consequences, all central banks will reaffirm their willingness to support,” says Greil. The economic downturn left neither governments nor central banks a choice but to take further measures to support and recover the economy.

The gross domestic product for the first quarter of 2020 will be published in the euro area on Thursday, and new growth figures will come in the US on Wednesday. Further important economic data in Germany are the preliminary inflation figures and the labor market report for April.

According to DZ Bank, the next quarter should bring an improvement in the economy, but there does not have to be a “V” or “I” recovery. This is not ignored on the stock market, many stocks are up to 80 percent down.

A large number of “mega-caps” hold up against this, mainly in the USA. Amazon, Google, Microsoft, Netflix and Facebook, but also Adobe or Comcast, be stable on the way. Things are also going well for the great values ​​of the “old economy”, including Pepsico, Johnson & Johnson, Procter & Gamble, Home depot and Pfizer. The German Leading index Dax the strategists from DZ Bank see 11,200 points by the end of the year, and the S & P-500 for US equities at 2,800. This would at least stabilize in the medium term.

More: Yield in Corona times: With which investments you can still make money


How professionals position themselves on the stock exchange

Frankfurt Stock Exchange

Many investors are puzzled as to where the markets will go.

(Photo: dpa)

Frankfurt The uncertainty is great. The oil price and many stock prices are in the basement. The mood among many managers is bad. The corona crisis keeps the financial markets in suspense every day. Many investors are now thinking more than ever about where to invest their money in these unstable times.

Because the violent ups and downs on the markets shows that there is still no peace on the stock exchanges. This leaves many investors in doubt about their previous investments. Keep or prefer to sell? This is an important question for many investors, especially with equities.

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Lufthansa makes a loss of 1.2 billion euros in the corona crisis

Lufthansa jets

The group has radically cut down its flight schedule.

(Photo: dpa)

Frankfurt The Lufthansa posted an operating loss (adjusted EBIT) of 1.2 billion euros in the first quarter, primarily due to the effects of the corona pandemic. The company announced on late Thursday afternoon. In the same period last year, the largest German airline had posted a loss of 336 million euros. Many airlines are in the red in the first quarter.

Consolidated sales in the first quarter fell on a preliminary basis by 18 percent to 6.4 billion euros. In March alone, sales declined by almost 1.4 billion euros or 47 percent, the company said.

It is currently not foreseeable when the group airlines will be able to resume flight operations beyond the currently applicable return flight schedule. The Group therefore expects a significantly higher operating loss in the second quarter than in the first quarter. The Lufthansa Group’s available liquidity is currently around 4.4 billion euros.

Shortly before the close of trading on Thursday, the Lufthansa share expanded its losses and closed just under two percent in the red.

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Pro Sieben Sat 1 withdraws forecast and dividend proposal

Per seven sat 1

The media group does not want to pay a dividend for 2019 because of the corona crisis.

(Photo: dpa)

Berlin, Unterfoehring The television company Pro Sieben Sat 1 cancels its forecast for 2020 and the dividend because of the corona crisis. Due to the current standstill of the global economy and the resulting economic uncertainty, it is Per seven Sat 1 is currently unable to provide an outlook on the financial results in the second quarter and for the full year, the company said on Wednesday evening.

The management board had therefore decided to withdraw the financial forecast for 2020 as a whole. The television group does not want to pay a dividend for the 2019 financial year either.

The company had previously announced that it would propose a dividend of EUR 0.85 per share to the general meeting. At the same time, the Group confirmed its previous dividend policy with a payout ratio of 50 percent of the Group’s adjusted consolidated net income.

Investors appeared to be calm in view of the similar announcements from various listed companies from the recent past. In an initial reaction, the Pro Sieben Sat 1 share price only declined by a good half percent on the Tradegate trading platform.

The new CEO and CFO Rainer Beaujean said: “By mid-March we were well on track until the first Covid 19 effects began to affect our business in all segments. As the duration and full scope of the pandemic remain uncertain, it is currently not possible to provide an outlook on our full year results. ”

Sales increased slightly in the first quarter

According to preliminary figures, consolidated sales rose slightly by one percent to 926 million euros in the first three months. The previous year it had been 913 million euros. The initial restrictions in the corona crisis would have impacted the high-margin advertising business in the second half of March: advertising revenues therefore fell by four percent in the first quarter after the first cancellations of line items. The entire media industry in Germany is currently struggling with losses in the advertising business.

The group also benefited from classified business such as the online beauty provider Flaconi. However, because business grew in areas with lower margins and decreased in high-margin (advertising business), adjusted EBITDA decreased in the first quarter by 17 percent to EUR 157 million, compared to EUR 190 million in the same period of the previous year. The company reported adjusted net income at EUR 58 million (previous year: EUR 94 million).

Pro Sieben Sat 1 assumes that advertising revenues in the TV business will decrease by around 40 percent in April compared to the previous year. Shifts in production at Red Arrow Studios are also affecting business.

The group with more than 7200 employees is currently also examining whether it will introduce short-time working within the entertainment business. In the NuCom division with internet shops and platforms such as Verivox or Parship, the media group is already using short-time working in some portfolio companies.

More: Pro Sieben Sat 1 starts the big podcast offensive.