Investors are heavily invested, increasing the risk of a setback

Dusseldorf With regard to the stock market, investors are currently asking three questions: Has the worst survived on the financial markets? Is it time to buy the stocks that sold the most? Or should the recovery be used to make the portfolio crisis-proof for the next low blow?

Sentiment expert Stephan Heibel describes the current mood as “wait and see neutral”. The owner of the analysis house Animusx evaluates the weekly Handelsblatt survey on stock market sentiment, called Dax-Sentiment, among more than 3500 investors.

As long as the facts about the future easing measures and the economic effects do not become clearer, Heibel’s view should not see any major swings in one direction or the other: “Downside potential threatens during the reporting season, because company numbers will become the extent of the economic trend in the coming days and weeks Show damage to the quarantine measures. “

However, the sentiment analysis this week does not provide a clear recommendation to investors’ questions. “Gains in prices such as the opening on today’s trading day are an opportunity to sell one or the other position in the portfolio in order to have enough cash for subsequent purchases in the event of a setback,” says Heibel.

After the panic mood in March followed the bargain hunters, who are currently taking their speculative profits with them. Now the Dax has left its sales level again. If prices continued to rise, individual stocks and sectors would again be overvalued in Heibel’s view.

Among other things, the investment quota is queried in his more extensive Animusx sentiment survey. This rate is already back at a relatively high level. Many investors are already heavily invested again, as the overbought constitution of the US stock barometer S&P 500 shows, which has risen too high too quickly. “This means that the possibility of a continuation of the recovery rally is limited in the short term, the risk of a setback is greater,” explains Heibel. Because if many investors are already heavily invested, few potential buyers remain.

Results of the current survey

Overall, the mood among investors is divided: relief on the one hand that Chancellor Angela Merkel took the direction of “easing” on Wednesday. Disappointment on the other hand about the moderate steps.

This can also be seen from the current results of the Handelsblatt survey Dax-Sentiment. The panicky mood of the previous weeks has evaporated, but nobody can really be happy about the low stock market level. The short-term sentiment is neutral.

Accordingly, complacency is not yet back. Uncertainty remains a dominant feeling among investors, because politicians have only announced action “on sight”. How long will this exceptional situation last? Uncertainty about the answer to this question continues to cause great uncertainty among shareholders.

Investor expectations are also slipping further in the Handelsblatt survey. With a minus of 0.3 the bears dominate over the bulls for the first time since February. Because the hope for a quick end to the measures has been destroyed. Everyone will have to live with the special situation longer than we previously imagined.

Before that, investors hoped for a short shutdown followed by a violent restart including a backlog that should more than compensate for the losses in the second half of the year.

Since this hope has been destroyed, investors no longer want to invest. The willingness to invest has also decreased further. At the end of March, this sub-area of ​​the Dax sentiment reached a historic high of 5.8, since the start of the survey in September 2014, more investors than ever have been invested. Now this value has dropped to just 1.1.

Look at other indicators

The Stuttgart Euwax sentiment, in which private investors trade, has dropped to minus 11.4. That leads to the conclusion: They are buying more hedging products against falling prices again because they fear a second sell-off wave.

The professionals who secure themselves through the Frankfurt derivatives exchange Eurex, on the other hand, are betting on further rising prices. The put-call ratio has dropped to 0.8 and the average is 1.5. Institutionals have bought significantly more calls.

In the weeks before, the hedging positions of investment professionals in the United States were significantly larger than in Germany. But the put-call ratio of the Chicago futures exchange CBOE is currently returning to a normal level.

The investment ratio in US fund manager shares rose only marginally from 27 percent to 29 percent and remains at a historically low level. US private investors remain pessimistic, the bull-bear ratio is minus eight percent.

The “fear and greed indicator” of the US stock markets, calculated on the basis of technical market data, now shows a neutral state of the markets again with 44 percent. Other short-term indicators indicate that a correction in the US equity markets is imminent.

More: Exaggeratedly cheap: Analysts now see these 18 stocks as bargains

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How much dividend does Merck pay?

Will the 2020 Merck Annual General Meeting take place despite the corona virus?

No. The Merck Annual General Meeting is being postponed due to the current corona crisis. A new date has not yet been set.

When did the 2020 Merck Annual General Meeting actually take place?

On April 24, 2020, the Merck Annual General Meeting would have taken place in the Jahrhunderthalle Frankfurt, Pfaffenwiese 301, 65929 Frankfurt am Main.

how high is the Merck-Dividend 2020?

Merck KGaA shareholders proposed a dividend of EUR 1.30 per share for the 2019 financial year.

How high was the 2019 Merck dividend?

The 2019 dividend for the 2018 financial year was EUR 1.25.

When will Merck pay the 2020 dividend?

The dividend is due on the third banking day after the Annual General Meeting.

When does Merck Post share “ex dividend”?

On the first business day after the Annual General Meeting, the share is listed “ex dividend” – the price of the share is reduced by the value of the dividend.

When do I have to buy Merck shares in 2020 to receive dividends?

In order to receive the Merck dividend for the 2019 financial year, the shares must have been purchased at the latest on the day of the Annual General Meeting.

Author: Merck

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Dax current: Dax is giving way significantly – cyclical stocks come under pressure

The release of new data illustrates the extent of the corona crisis. The savings rate is increasing and consumption is likely to shrink significantly. .

The corona crisis is an opportunity for German equity culture

Bull and bear

Turbulent stock market times can be a good opportunity to get into stocks.


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Frankfurt The number of shareholders in Germany has been at a low level for years. According to the German Stock Institute (DAI), it even fell again last year. Just 9.7 percent of Germans were recently invested in stocks or equity funds. The fact that the share prices of companies have plummeted due to the corona crisis is therefore only a cause for annoyance for a minority of German citizens. For others, it can be a good opportunity to finally become a shareholder.

First of all, they will need good nerves. The analysts at DZ-Bank, for example, assume that volatility will remain high for the time being due to the continuing uncertainties caused by the corona virus – prices will fluctuate more strongly. New setbacks cannot be ruled out either. In addition, they point out that the highest and most sustained rate of increase in the stock market in the past was only after the low point of a recession. They estimate that this could be achieved in the second quarter of 2020.

Nobody can predict with certainty whether the development of the past will actually repeat itself. However, it is certain that share prices will rise in the long term. At some point, they will at least reach their previous highs again – and if the economy is back on track, they will go further. So investing in the next weeks and months could be worthwhile.

As always, the golden rules of equity investment apply: investors should only invest as much money as they do not need for other purchases in the short to medium term. Even those who fear a job loss due to the crisis or who earn less money due to short-time work should leave a sufficient buffer in their account. In addition, investors should not put everything on one card, but rather diversify their equity portfolio by dividing their money between different regions and between larger and smaller companies.

There is an opportunity in every crisis. This also applies to the German stock culture. A good opportunity to get started is not boom times, but times of crisis.

More: Analysts now see these 18 stocks as bargains.

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Top managers are picky about stocks

“The insiders live out their countercyclical character,” says Olaf Stotz, professor at the Frankfurt School of Finance & Management. That means: The executives who know their companies better than anyone else go bargain hunting if they consider the shares of their own companies on the stock exchange to be undervalued.

According to Stotz, this is no longer so clearly the case. “The insiders’ belief that the stock market recovery would continue in the short term appears to be limited, otherwise they would have continued to buy at the same pace,” says the university lecturer.

graphic

From the second week of March to early April, German listed companies reported almost 400 executives’ share purchases to the financial regulator Bafin. Since then, the number of purchases has almost halved with the sharply rising share prices. Purchases over several hundred thousand euros are also largely passé.

Accordingly, the insider barometer, which Stotz regularly calculates from transactions reported to Bafin exclusively for the Handelsblatt, has dropped somewhat from its nine-month high of over 145 points in early April. Most recently, it was just under 139 points.

At this level, the barometer theoretically signals that stocks should outperform other asset classes over a three-month period. However, Stotz would not currently over-interpret this – precisely because the insider barometer has already moved away from the recent intermediate high.

Dax cheap at 8500 points?

The university professor would only support a new, larger rush of purchase by the board members and supervisory boards for the shares of their own companies Dax-Stands around 8,500 points expected. In mid-March, the Dax even hit below 8,300 points.

He had thus lost 40 percent since his all-time high of 13,795 points in February: “At this level, the stock market seems to be favorably valued for many managers,” says Stotz. According to the professor of asset management, private investors should only get back into the market if there are new setbacks.

In the meantime, the Dax, with almost 10,600 points, is again almost 30 percent above its March low and has been “only” 20 percent lower since the beginning of the year. Not only insiders, but investors don’t trust the rally yet. David Lafferty, chief strategist at Natixis Investment Managers: “There is too much optimism priced in the markets”. In his opinion, the negative effects of the corona crisis should occupy the markets for several quarters.

Rolf Schäffer, one of the leading macro strategists at Landesbank Baden-Württemberg, sees it similarly: “The markets have currently opted for a rather positive interpretation and consider the glass to be half full.” This half full glass has “but clear” Jumps and could prove to be fragile in the event of further vibrations ”.

The largest insider purchases in the past four weeks show that board members and supervisory boards were more selective than in the first week and a half in March. Purchases were mainly made from companies that underperformed the Dax.

The biggest purchase was – as on March 10th – at Heidelberg Cement. From March 17, the Merckle family of entrepreneurs in particular once again accessed via Spohn Beteiligungs GmbH. The Merckle family is a major shareholder in Heidelberg Cement and often buys millions of shares.

The purchases of more than 70 million euros throughout March are very high even for the Merckle family represented on the Heidelberg Cement supervisory board. The building materials group’s stock fell more sharply than many other stocks and has also recovered less.

Purchases from Krones and Fresenius

At KronesIt is similar, the world’s largest bottling plant manufacturer for beverages and food, which is listed in the small value segment SDax. Here supervisory board member Petra Schadeberg-Herrmann bought shares through Schawei GmbH for a good five million euros. Schadeberg-Herrmann and board member Norbert Broger had already invested millions in the shares at the end of February and beginning of March.

The third largest share purchase in the past four weeks was also made by a company that insiders had accessed in early March. At the Healthcare company Fresenius This time, four board members and four supervisory board members bought shares. The Dax value of Fresenius shares had also suffered more than the leading index, but has since made up half of the loss.

It is not only the largest share purchases by insiders that are countercyclical, but also sales. For example, supervisory boards parted from shares in the real estate companies Patrizia and LEG, both of which have recovered well from short slumps.

Even more striking is the sale of the Hellofresh cookbox mail order company from the MDax of medium-sized values. Co-founder Thomas Griesel sold through TWG Ventures GmbH for shares valued at 14 million euros. Co-founder Dominik Richter also bought shares via DSR Venture GmbH, and board member Christian Gärtner also accessed them – but both on a comparatively small scale.

The Hellofresh share had also lost almost 30 percent between early and mid-March. However, it fell only slightly below the level at the beginning of the year and has soared to almost 70 percent since then. No other stock outperformed a German selection index.

The sender of recipes with suitable ingredients benefits enormously from the corona restrictions and closings of the restaurants. The company itself cannot foresee whether this will remain the case. In any case, management is reluctant to make a forecast for the current year.

More: Yield in Corona times: With which investments you can still earn money.

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Insider barometer: Top managers are picky about stocks

Managers only bought titles of their own companies on a large scale until the beginning of April. Since then they have held back – and are waiting for better courses. .

Which tech stocks are worth getting started with

Netflix

Netflix has replaced Disney as the most valuable media company this week.


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Frankfurt, San Francisco The corona virus didn’t stop at Jeff Bezos either. When the stock markets crashed worldwide in spring, the founder of the e-commerce giant Amazon felt this. At times, the American’s fortune fell by $ 7 billion in one day alone. About a month later, nothing more can be seen.

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Dax closes more than three percent in the plus

Dax curve

View of the Dax curve in the Frankfurt trading hall.


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Dusseldorf The German stock market is going into the weekend with price gains. The leading index Dax closed around 3.2 percent in Frankfurt at 10,625 points. However, because the Dax slumped by almost four percent on Wednesday, the leading index hardly moved up compared to the previous week.

The stock market barometer probably received an additional boost from today’s small expiry date. Reach on a small expiry day Options on stocks and indices their end date, options on indices are settled at noon. That is why investors are trying to drive prices in one direction so that they can make higher profits or smaller losses with their options.

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Dax closes more than three percent in plus

Dax curve

View of the Dax curve in the Frankfurt trading hall.


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Dusseldorf The German stock market was up around 3.2 percent at 10,625 points at the close of the stock exchange and is thus going into the weekend with price gains. However, because the Dax plummeted by almost four percent on Wednesday, the leading index barely moved up compared to last week.

The stock market barometer probably received an additional boost from today’s small expiry date. Reach on a small expiry day Options on stocks and indices their end date, options on indices are settled at noon. That is why investors are trying to drive prices in one direction so that they can make higher profits or smaller losses with their options.

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Varta shares become the game ball of hedge funds

Dusseldorf The German Leading index Dax closed with a slight plus on Thursday. It closed 0.2 percent higher at 10,300 points. By early afternoon, the Dax had consistently posted a plus of around one percent. Then, however, he had turned negative in the meantime and then only recovered slightly.

In the afternoon, new, weak economic data was presented in Washington: Initial jobless claims last week totaled 5.245 million, a figure of 5.105 million was expected. The US stock exchanges were then initially turned negative. Recently, however, only the Dow Jones was slightly below the previous day’s level.

“The labor market in the USA is particularly hard hit by the pandemic and the associated restrictions on public life,” said the analysts at Landesbank Helaba. A total of approximately 22 million people have applied for financial support in the past four weeks.

The Philadelphia Region sentiment barometer has also weakened significantly and is even well below expectations. The index had already deteriorated significantly in March and is now at the lowest level since the mid-1980s. According to the Helaba analysts, economic worries are becoming greater as a result of the data release.

The Dax had reversed yesterday after a five-day recovery and went out of business with a minus of 3.9 percent at 10,279 points. According to chart technology, the Dax achieved a spot landing: from 10,279 points, the index started a rally in December 2018, which continued until a record high in February 2020.

A particularly interesting share is that of Varta, because the game of hedge funds with the title apparently continues. Today, Thursday, the paper rose by 6.7 percent to EUR 72.75, leading the list of winners in the MDax by far. This is no surprise, even if the share certificate at the close of trading was only 3.8 percent up: Five hedge funds are now under pressure to buy around 2.6 million shares. They may have started this Thursday.

Because the funds sold the Varta share short, as it is said in technical terms. So you’re betting on falling prices on paper. To this end, they have borrowed and sold 2.6 million Varta shareholders such as investment funds. But in order to return these shares, you have to buy them again beforehand. Of course, if possible at a lower rate.

With an average trading volume of around 272,000 shares per day in the past month, this buyback has to be carefully dosed so that the Varta price does not rise rapidly and puts pressure on the hedge funds. Because they want to buy back the papers cheaply.

Incidentally, this also explains the drop in yesterday’s Varta share of just under nine percent on Wednesday: the hedge fund Tiger Global increased its short sale rate from 1.06 percent on Tuesday to 1.16 percent on Wednesday.

With 40,421 million freely tradable shares, he borrowed an additional 40,421 papers and sold them on the day. With a total trading volume of 320,000 units on Wednesday, this sale is likely to have influenced price development.

With such figures, an analyst should say: only the fundamental values ​​are important.

According to the investor survey conducted by the Frankfurt Stock Exchange, the Dax is likely to buy again below 10,000 pointssays Joachim Goldberg after evaluating the survey on Wednesday evening. According to this survey, the mood has dropped significantly despite the rising prices, the Sentiment Index of the Frankfurt Stock Exchange has even dropped to the lowest level since the beginning of the 2002 survey.

To put it simply, negative sentiment is – according to sentiment analysis – a contraindicator because many investors have already sold.

The behavioral economist is also expecting further demand if this recovery rally should continue. “Above all beyond the 11,000 mark” there could be a sudden, rapid rise in prices (“short squeeze”) because investors would then have to buy more. But the Dax is still a long way from this point.

Look at the individual values

Zalando: The coronavirus pandemic is affecting Europe’s largest online fashion retailer. As a result of the weaker growth wants Zalando save now in the current year. Marketing and general costs are to be reduced by 250 million euros and investments by 100 million euros. Nevertheless, the company listed in the MDax average index wants to stick to its original plans and expand its luxury segment and also include second-hand goods in its range. Investors are happy about this news, the stock gained 6.2 percent on Thursday.

Easyjet: The company sees itself prepared for a longer standstill of its fleet and is pleased with its shareholders. At the start of trading, the paper gained more than ten percent and was the frontrunner on the London Stock Exchange. Most recently, however, the paper was down 2.5 percent. The low-cost airline expects to be able to survive a longer break. In addition, the bookings for winter are better than last year.

Look at other asset classes

The gold price put in its upward trend a little breather, but was recently back up 0.4 percent at $ 1,723 per troy ounce.

A side note: Because of the corona virus, the US Mint has to temporarily close its plant in New York. According to the Commerzbank– Commodity analysts are short of gold coins in particular and are distorting the gold market in the United States.

According to a coin dealer, the premiums for gold coins are already five to ten percent above the spot price of gold. After a long dry spell, the Americans bought as many gold coins in March as they did last in November 2016 at 151.5 thousand ounces, according to data from the US Mint. Demand continues: in April it was 56.5 thousand ounces again.

The bond market clearly shows: The decisions of the finance ministers last Thursday to deal with the corona crisis have no effect. The government in Rome will not apply for an ESM package. Accordingly, yields on Italian and other government bonds have risen significantly again.

Although the yield on a ten-year government bond falls to 1.805 percent, the market should soon test the reaction of the European Central Bank: when will it react to this with higher bond purchases? The yield spread (spread) between a German and an Italian government bond has increased to 240 basis points in the past few days, but is currently only at 228 basis points.

Oil prices recovered slightly on Thursday from the significant losses of the previous days. In the afternoon, a barrel (159 liters) of North Sea Brent cost $ 27.63. The price of a barrel of American WTI was little changed at $ 19.97. In the meantime, the price of US oil had dropped to $ 19.20, the lowest level since 2002.

“The oil price is at a low point, but the market could pick up again in June”

The oversupply of crude oil continues in the meantime, and the cut in production agreed by leading oil nations does not come into force until May. As the U.S. Department of Energy announced on Wednesday, stocks in the U.S. have grown significantly more than expected last week. According to the Ministry of Energy, inventories rose by 19.2 million to 503.6 million barrels. This is the strongest increase ever measured.

At the same time however, the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (Opec) predicted a drastic drop in oil consumption due to the corona crisis. As can be seen from the monthly report published in Vienna on Thursday, the oil cartel is expecting the weakest demand for Opec oil in the second quarter in around 30 years.

Dealers still expect no short-term relaxation on the oil market. “In the short term, the market will remain flooded,” said Torbjorn Tornqvist, managing director of the oil dealer Gunvor Group.

What the chart technique says

According to technical analysis, the leading German index is now testing the important key support below the 10,300 point zone. On the one hand, the striking low of December 2018 with 10,279 points is important, the starting point for the rally, which lasted until the record high in February 2020. Just below that there are so-called price gaps for which there were no quotes this year. The last gap would be closed at a Dax level of 10,097 points.

The recent recovery rally led the Dax from 8255 points in mid-March to a new five-week high last Tuesday at 10,820 points. This rally remains intact as long as the stock market barometer remains above 9235 points.

If this upward trend remains intact, the next targets would be 11,030 and then 11,266 points, the August 2019 interim low.

Here is the page with the DAX course, here is the current tops & flops in the Dax. Current Short sales of investors can be found in our Short sales database.

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