The head of Sberbank proceeds from the assumption that a barrel of oil will rise in price to $ 60, and the dollar will fall in price to about 60 rubles. But the second wave of coronavirus can affect the situation
Photo: Stoyan Vasev / TASS
The head of Sberbank German Gref in an interview with TASS suggested that before the end of the year, the ruble could grow by about 10%. At the same time, he made a reservation that in the context of the coronavirus pandemic, it is rather difficult to make forecasts.
“Our national currency is closely linked to the price of oil, and it’s hard to predict. I trust one of the old and experienced analysts, Henry Grobe. He calls at the end of the year $ 60–62 per barrel. This means that the ruble will be in the range of plus or minus 60 to the dollar, ”Gref said.
The head of Sberbank added that in the case of the second wave of coronavirus, “the ruble may begin to fluctuate.”
Last month, the dollar has fluctuated between 68.20–70.20 rubles. Barrel Brent, as of the morning of June 29, is trading at around $ 40.70.
The Ministry of Economic Development softened the forecast for the fall of the Russian economy in 2020
Similarly, the pandemic situation will affect macroeconomic indicators. “We made a forecast of a drop in GDP from 6 to 9%, depending on how long the closed situation will last. Today, our forecast is much more optimistic: approximately minus 4.2–4.5% of GDP. Again, if a second wave does not happen, ”Gref said.
The Ministry of Economic Development in mid-June lowered its forecast for a drop in GDP in 2020 from 5 to 4.8%. The economic recovery, according to the updated macro forecast parameters, will be faster: GDP growth in 2021 is expected to reach 3.2 instead of 2.8% according to the previous estimate. In 2022, the Russian economy, according to a new assessment of the department, will grow by 2.9%, in 2023 – by 3.1%.