Is it true that nicotine users contract Covid-19 less?

Hello,

Numerous case studies demonstrate this unequivocal : smokers who get Covid-19 have a risk greatly increased to develop severe forms of the disease. In this work, we find that the proportion of smokers is two to four times higher in severely ill patients than in those with a moderate form of the disease.

On the other hand, several publications relayed since the beginning of April report a counterintuitive phenomenon: in several countries, the proportion of smokers infected with SARS-CoV-2 would be lower than the proportion of smokers at regional or national level. The Minister of Health, Olivier Véran, recently mentioned this data.

In France, works being published conducted on a limited number of patients at the Pitié-Salpétrière, as well as a study in a school environment in Crépy-en-Valois (prepublished this April 23), also reported this statistical trend.

Many potential limits

Note now that the link between smoking status and propensity to be infected does not appear in all research. So in a recent study published in the Jama, involving 5,700 New York patients hospitalized for Covid-19, the proportion of smokers was analogous to that observed in the regional population.

The first studies were met with skepticism, not without reason. Indeed, many of these works have sometimes significant biases.

First limitation present in all studies (with the exception of French studies): the age parameter of hospitalized patients. Indeed, a significant proportion of patients with severe forms of Covid-19 are over the age of 65. The prevalence of smokers decreases very strongly with age (for example, in France, 65-75 year olds smoke 2.5 times less than the general population).

In the study conducted at Pitié-Salpêtrière, taking into account the age and sex of the patients, smokers nevertheless appeared to be four times less likely than non-smokers to be Covid +. A rate observed both in hospitalized patients and in patients treated on an outpatient basis. However, in order to draw more solid conclusions, these results should have been put into perspective with the smoking profile of patients who usually attend this hospital, at the same periods in previous years.

Another parameter that seems to be excluded from most analyzes: the socio-economic profile of the groups studied, which can strongly influence the expected proportion of smokers. A limitation mentioned by the authors of the French study, who established their calculations “Assuming that the population studied who lives in a limited area around a Parisian hospital has the same smoking habits as the French population in general”, and who note that “Healthcare workers were overrepresented in the outpatient group due to routine workplace testing when they became symptomatic”. The study conducted at Crépy-en-Valois seems to take this parameter into account. And its results are consistent with the Pitié Salpêtrière study.

Third important pitfall: the quality of the information collected is not always there … far from it. In some studies used by epidemiologists to conduct their analyzes, the smoking status of the sickest Covid + patients was simply not informed. Commentators have also noted that one of these studies considered individuals to be “non-smokers” less than 30 packages per year – preventing any comparison with national statistics which relate to all cigarette consumers.

For its part, the study conducted at Pitié-Salpêtrière seems to consider as “former smoker” any person who had quit smoking at the time of his hospitalization … without mentioning the hypothesis that patients may have stopped smoking because of the first Covid-19 symptoms! A point which would considerably influence the results. Requested by CheckNews, Zahir Amoura, author of this work, has not yet commented on this point.

Is the phenomenon biologically plausible?

The interpretation of these statistics, as well as the extent of the associated phenomenon, are still questionable.

Researchers, however, have begun to explore the hypothesis of a direct causal link between smoking status and primary SARS-CoV-2 infection. The question arises indeed: from a physiological point of view, is it plausible that lungs exposed to tobacco are less permeable to this coronavirus? Could nicotine be involved in the phenomenon?

A possible link with the ACE2 receiver?

SARS-CoV-2 infects cells by binding to the ACE2 receptor, abundant on the surface, in particular, the cells of the mucous membranes and the alveolar pulmonary tissue. The expression of the gene corresponding to ACE2 is not identical in smokers and in non-smokers. Based on animal models, smokers have long been considered to express less ACE2 – which suggests a simple explanation for the phenomenon: less ACE2 induces a lower propensity for infection.

But recent data, which seem to be corroborated by new researchsuggest that in humans, smoking is associated with a higher expression of ACE2. A higher propensity for coronavirus infection would therefore be expected. The epidemiological observations mentioned above, suggesting a protective effect of tobacco, would therefore raise a paradox.

Several explanatory hypotheses have been formulated. Some authors have advanced that in all patients, infection with SARS-CoV-2 would decrease the availability of ACE2 receptors in the lungs. The biological processes that usually mobilize these receptors would be hindered, leading to various symptoms of the disease. People with more ACE2, even if they were infected, would develop fewer symptoms. However, this interpretation is challenged by the Crépy-en-Valois study, where the diagnosis of infection was made on a blood test, and not on a simple clinical assessment of symptoms.

According to other works, the nAChR nicotinic receptor could modulate the activity of ACE2. Could stimulating nAChR make infection through ACE2 more difficult? This fact is not yet proven. “The possibility of a reciprocal modulation between ACE2 and the nicotinic receptor is an interesting scientific question for which we have no answer”, insists Professor Jean-Pierre Changeux, co-author of a scientific article inviting this hypothesis to be explored.

La Pitié-Salpêtrière has announced the launch of several clinical trials in this direction. The first, conducted on caregivers, aims to compare the infection rate between a group carrying nicotine patches and a group carrying placebos patches. More trials need to be done on Covid + patients in hospital to assess whether nicotine affects the course of the disease – especially in smokers who are forced to quit as a result of hospitalization.

Nicotine and vaping: preliminary data not very encouraging

The return of associations of electronic cigarette users does not seem to go in this direction, however. According to the analysis of a questionnaire sent in early April to several thousand members of the AIDUCE and SOVAPE associations, the rate of patients suspected of being Covid + was similar whether or not there was nicotine consumption – around 2.5 %. “Although it concerns nearly 10,000 people, this citizen survey is inconclusive on a major protective effect of nicotine, note the associations in a press release. The first data show no major positive or negative effect of vaping when faced with the risk of contracting Covid-19 for vapers and their entourage. ”

Tobaccoologist Bertrand Dautzenberg, who had encouraged these associations to explore this hypothesis, notes on Twitter that the data was not collected under conditions “Respecting all the obligations of scientific studies”. He nevertheless considers that they are not showing strong signs of a beneficial effect of nicotine in reducing Covid-19 levels. ” He invites an analysis of the Health Database to further explore this hypothesis.

No reason to start smoking

The tobacco specialist recalls “That tobacco certainly brings a negative effect greater than that of a small benefit which is not confirmed at all”. “This leads to encouraging all doctors to advise and support smoking cessation for all smokers.” The authors of the Crépy-en-Valois study abound in this sense, recalling that tobacco is responsible for 75,000 deaths per year in France. “Smoking cannot therefore be offered as a way of protecting oneself against the new coronavirus”, they insist.

Unsurprisingly, this finding is similar to that of the authors of a review on the complications of Covid-19 related to smoking. “Risk factors for severe forms of Covid-19 (pulmonary and cardiovascular disorders, diabetes, etc.) are more common in smokers. Smokers with comorbidities should quit smoking by all means. ” They also observe that confinement can lead to social isolation and psychological distress that increase the need for smoking. [En outre], smoking is more prevalent among the economically less advantaged groups, and they are potentially more at risk for Covid-19. ”

For its part, the association Alliance contre le tabac urged the greatest caution with regard to speculative information in circulation. In the absence of more evidence, nicotine users, “Should not expect to be more protected than the population from the current epidemic”, she recalls. In addition, she advises non-smokers to use nicotine substitutes. A warning also formulated by the promoters of the Pitié-Salpétrière study or by the Minister of Health.

In summary

Although well publicized, epidemiological observations associating smoking and the risk of developing the symptoms of Covid-19 are difficult to interpret at this time. Under the hypothesis of a real cause and effect link, the biological mechanisms mentioned in the press are still hypothetical. None have yet been formally tested.

Listen to the weekly behind the scenes podcast of CheckNews. This week: Covid-19: what are the real figures for deaths in intensive care?

Jérôme Salomon, the Director General of Health, mentioned a mortality of 10% in intensive care of patients hospitalized for Covid-19. In this episode, Luc Peillon explains why this figure is largely underestimated.


Florian Gouthière

.

“Around May 11, the epidemic will still be there” – Release

“Around May 11, the epidemic will still be there” Liberation.

The economic debacle of the coronavirus in graphics | Economy

The paralysis of air traffic, especially commercial flights, is a direct consequence of the coronavirus pandemic, which has confined more than a third of the world population. In the first four months of the year, world traffic has fallen by 60%, according to Eurocontrol. This decrease has been especially pronounced in the European Union, where the number of flights has been reduced by 88% on average, according to the same data. In Spain, the reduction is almost 95%. The pandemic has also affected maritime traffic, which began to notice the first declines in late January, especially since China accounts for a third of global container traffic. In fact, in the first two months of the year, the Asian giant’s international trade fell 9.6% year-on-year, according to data published by the country’s General Administration of Customs.


Global air traffic falls into

the first four months of 2020

WHO declares

the pandemic

On January 9 they registered 185,552 flights *; on April 15, 74,954

* Commercial passenger, cargo, private, helicopter, drone, military, government and health flights.

Flights are reduced in Spain

Fall in April from the previous year

WHO declares

the pandemic

On March 12 flights decreased in Spain a 10.5%; on the 17th, a 43.7%, and since March 28 the fall exceeds the 90%

Airports empty

in Madrid and Barcelona

WHO declares

the pandemic

Flight drop compared to 2019.

March 1: Madrid-Barajas, 4.4%; Barcelona-El Prat, 0.8; April 15: Barajas, 93%; El Prat, 96%

Global air traffic falls into

the first four months of 2020

WHO declares

the pandemic

On January 9 they registered 185,552 flights *; on April 15, 74,954

* Commercial passenger, cargo, private, helicopter, drone, military, government and health flights.

Flights are reduced in Spain

Fall in April from the previous year

WHO declares

the pandemic

On March 12 flights decreased in Spain a 10.5%; on the 17th, a 43.7%, and since March 28 the fall exceeds the 90%

Airports empty

in Madrid and Barcelona

WHO declares

the pandemic

Flight drop compared to 2019.

March 1: Madrid-Barajas, 4.4%; Barcelona-El Prat, 0.8; April 15: Barajas, 93%; El Prat, 96%

Global air traffic falls into

the first four months of 2020

Flights are reduced in Spain

Fall in April from the previous year

WHO declares

the pandemic

WHO declares

the pandemic

On January 9 they registered 185,552 flights *; on April 15, 74,954

On March 12 flights decreased in Spain a 10.5%; on the 17th, a 43.7%, and since March 28 the fall exceeds the 90%

* Commercial passenger, cargo, private, helicopter, drone, military, government and health flights.

Airports empty

in Madrid and Barcelona

WHO declares

the pandemic

Flight drop compared to 2019.

March 1: Madrid-Barajas, 4.4%; Barcelona-El Prat, 0.8; April 15: Barajas, 93%; El Prat, 96%

Global air traffic falls into

the first four months of 2020

Flights are reduced in Spain

Airports empty

in Madrid and Barcelona

Fall in April from the previous year

WHO declares

the pandemic

WHO declares

the pandemic

WHO declares

the pandemic

On January 9 they registered 185,552 flights *; on April 15, 74,954

On March 12 flights decreased in Spain a 10.5%; on the 17th, a 43.7%, and since March 28 the fall exceeds the 90%

Flight drop compared to 2019.

March 1: Madrid-Barajas, 4.4%; Barcelona-El Prat, 0.8; April 15: Barajas, 93%; El Prat, 96%

* Commercial passenger, cargo, private, helicopter, drone, military, government and health flights.

The confinement of citizens in their homes has also had an impact on road traffic, which has experienced a notable decrease, visible daily on the streets of any city. Last Friday, private car traffic in Madrid and Barcelona was around 65% lower compared to a February business day. These are the last images available today, April 17th.

Press to see the most recent images

Madrid

Plaza de Cibeles

Plaza de Cibeles

Puerta de Alcalá

Puerta de Alcalá

Columbus Square

Columbus Square

Barcelona

Ramblas and Columbus monument

Ramblas and Columbus monument

Plaça Urquinaona

Plaça Urquinaona

Plaça Antonio López

Plaça Antonio López

Empty streets have in turn influenced air quality. According to data compiled by Ecologists in Action, the average of gas emissions from traffic during the month of March was 55% lower than the average for the last period.

Blow to the job

Coronavirus has had a devastating effect on the labor market. Since the closure of the schools was announced on March 9, until the end of the month, Social Security lost more than 800,000 members, leaving a total of 19 million the number of contributors. It is the same number of people who stopped trading between October 2, 2008 and February 27, 2009, the period considered as the zero zone of the Great Recession caused by the Lehman Brothers bankruptcy. The number of unemployed rose in the same period by 302,265, according to data from the Ministries of Labor and Social Security. In addition, 3.5 million workers have been affected by an ERTE, double that between 2009 and 2019.


The effects of the coronavirus

shoots the total of unemployed

In February, 3,246,047 unemployed; in March, 3,548,312

Source: Ministry of Labor.

The increase in March more than 300,000 unemployed is the largest since 2010

Source: Ministry of Labor.

Workers descend

in Social Security

The average number of members in February was 19,250,229; in March, 19,006,760

Source: Ministry of Labor.

Membership drop in March

Regarding February (last day of the month)

The lost of 833,979 jobs is the worst figure in the statistical series.

Source: Ministry of Labor.

The effects of the coronavirus

shoots the total of unemployed

In February, 3,246,047 unemployed; in March, 3,548,312

Source: Ministry of Labor.

The increase in March more than 300,000 unemployed is the largest since 2010

Source: Ministry of Labor.

Workers descend

in Social Security

The average number of members in February was 19,250,229; in March, 19,006,760

Source: Ministry of Labor.

Membership drop in March

Regarding February (last day of the month)

The lost of 833,979 jobs is the worst figure in the statistical series.

Source: Ministry of Labor.

The effects of the coronavirus

shoots the total of unemployed

In February, 3,246,047 unemployed; in March, 3,548,312

The increase in March more than 300,000 unemployed is the largest since 2010

Source: Ministry of Labor.

Source: Ministry of Labor.

Workers descend

in Social Security

Membership drop in March

Regarding February (last day of the month)

The average number of members in February was 19,250,229; in March, 19,006,760

The lost of 833,979 jobs is the worst figure in the statistical series.

Source: Ministry of Labor.

Source: Ministry of Labor.

The effects of the coronavirus

shoots the total of unemployed

Workers descend

in Social Security

Membership drop in March

Regarding February (last day of the month)

In February, 3,246,047 unemployed; in March, 3,548,312

The increase in March more than 300,000 unemployed is the largest since 2010

The average number of members in February was 19,250,229; in March, 19,006,760

The lost of 833,979 jobs is the worst figure in the statistical series.

Source: Ministry of Labor.

Source: Ministry of Labor.

Source: Ministry of Labor.

Source: Ministry of Labor.

And if the effects during the first weeks of confinement have been devastating, the forecasts are not hopeful. The IMF predicts that Spain concludes 2020 with 20.8% unemployed.

The sectors

Although it is premature to estimate the economic losses from the coronavirus pandemic, the comparison with the 2003 SARS epidemic predicts devastating consequences. Then, the virus, which sickened more than 8,000 people and killed 774, caused worldwide losses of between 35,000 and 50,000 million euros, according to different analyzes. SARS-CoV-2 has already affected more than two million people in four months and has killed more than 150,000. Tourism, hospitality, commerce or the automotive sector are among the most affected sectors – although there are many more. This is the decline they have suffered during the crisis:


The fall of tourism

planned for 2020

In the case of a scenario without activity in establishments dedicated to tourism between April and June.

Biggest decrease in tourism activity in 2020: Balearic Islands -41%

Billing of the sector

of the hospitality industry

Expected fall after the closure of establishments.

Billing planned for

2020 before the health crisis

124,000

millions of euros

After the closing of

establishments

-40,000

millions of euros

After the closing of

establishments

-30% / – 40%

Bars, restaurants and accommodation: 314,000; workers: 1,700,000

Source: Hospitality of Spain / B & C and EY.

The sale of cars falls

at a level never recorded

Vehicle registration in March

Car registration. March 2019: 122,659; March 2020: 37,644

Lower electricity consumption

that in March 2019

March 23 (second

week of confinement)

April 6 (second week of

paralysis of non-essential activities)

Source: Red Eléctrica Española (REE).

The fall of tourism

planned for 2020

In the case of a scenario without activity in establishments dedicated to tourism between April and June.

Biggest decrease in tourism activity in 2020: Balearic Islands -41%

Billing of the sector

of the hospitality industry

Expected fall after the closure of establishments.

Billing planned for

2020 before the health crisis

124,000

millions of euros

After the closing of

establishments

-40,000

millions of euros

After the closing of

establishments

-30% / – 40%

Bars, restaurants and accommodation: 314,000; workers: 1,700,000

Source: Hospitality of Spain / B & C and EY.

The sale of cars falls

at a level never recorded

Vehicle registration in March

Car registration. March 2019: 122,659; March 2020: 37,644

Lower electricity consumption

that in March 2019

March 23 (second

week of confinement)

April 6 (second week of

paralysis of non-essential activities)

Source: Red Eléctrica Española (REE).

The fall of tourism

planned for 2020

Billing of the sector

of the hospitality industry

In the case of a scenario without activity in establishments dedicated to tourism between April and June.

Expected fall after the closure of establishments.

Billing planned for

2020 before the health crisis

124,000

millions of euros

After the closing of

establishments

-40,000

millions of euros

After the closing of

establishments

-30% / – 40%

Biggest decrease in tourism activity in 2020: Balearic Islands -41%

Bars, restaurants and accommodation: 314,000; workers: 1,700,000

Source: Hospitality of Spain / B & C and EY.

The sale of cars falls

at a level never recorded

Lower electricity consumption

that in March 2019

Vehicle registration in March

March 23 (second

week of confinement)

April 6 (second week of

paralysis of non-essential activities)

Car registration. March 2019: 122,659; March 2020: 37,644

Source: Red Eléctrica Española (REE).

The fall of tourism

planned for 2020

Billing of the sector

of the hospitality industry

The sale of cars falls

at a level never recorded

Lower electricity consumption

that in March 2019

In the case of a scenario without activity in establishments dedicated to tourism between April and June.

Expected fall after the closure of establishments.

Vehicle registration in March

Billing planned for

2020 before the health crisis

124,000

millions of euros

After the closing of

establishments

-40,000

millions of euros

After the closing of

establishments

-30% / – 40%

March 23 (second

week of confinement)

April 6 (second week of

paralysis of non-essential activities)

Biggest decrease in tourism activity in 2020: Balearic Islands -41%

Bars, restaurants and accommodation: 314,000; workers: 1,700,000

Car registration. March 2019: 122,659; March 2020: 37,644

Source: Hospitality of Spain / B & C and EY.

Source: Red Eléctrica Española (REE).

Work has already announced that it is studying increasing ERTE force majeure in the sectors most affected by the crisis. In addition, the resumption of activity in Spain, once the covid-19 epidemic allows it, will be carried out in two stages: the first will affect the productive sectors and will take place until the summer, and the second will include the sectors most affected by the crisis and will last until the end of the year, which means that, according to government forecasts, sectors such as tourism or hospitality will take months to recover.

The reaction of the markets

Stock market losses from the coronavirus total hundreds of billions. Although stimulus from governments and central banks has slightly slowed the decline, investors’ fear of the collapse of companies has hit the main parquets hard:


The Ibex 35

falls to zone

minimum

Brusque

fall of the

Dow Jones

2/19/2020: 10,083 Max.

03-16-2020: 6,107 Min.

12-2-2020: 29,551 Max.

03-23-2020: 18,591 Min.

Evolution of

the cousin of

risk

The oil,

in minima

20 years

Dollars per barrel Brent

6-1-2020: 68.91 Max.

3-31-2020: 22.74 Min.

3-18-2020: 146.3 Max.

03-26-2020: 84.0 Min.

Gold scales

as active

refuge

04-14-2020: 1,768 Max.

03-16-2020: 1,461 Min.

The Ibex 35

falls to zone

minimum

Brusque

fall of the

Dow Jones

2/19/2020: 10,083 Max.

03-16-2020: 6,107 Min.

12-2-2020: 29,551 Max.

03-23-2020: 18,591 Min.

Evolution of

the cousin of

risk

The oil,

in minima

20 years

Dollars per barrel Brent

6-1-2020: 68.91 Max.

3-31-2020: 22.74 Min.

3-18-2020: 146.3 Max.

03-26-2020: 84.0 Min.

Gold scales

as active

refuge

04-14-2020: 1,768 Max.

03-16-2020: 1,461 Min.

The Ibex 35

falls to zone

minimum

Brusque

fall of the

Dow Jones

Evolution of

the cousin of

risk

2/19/2020: 10,083 Max.

03-16-2020: 6,107 Min.

12-2-2020: 29,551 Max.

03-23-2020: 18,591 Min.

3-18-2020: 146.3 Max.

03-26-2020: 84.0 Min.

The oil,

in minima

20 years

Gold scales

as active

refuge

Dollars per barrel Brent

6-1-2020: 68.91 Max.

3-31-2020: 22.74 Min.

04-14-2020: 1,768 Max.

03-16-2020: 1,461 Min.

The Ibex 35

falls to zone

minimum

Brusque

fall of the

Dow Jones

Evolution of

the cousin of

risk

The oil,

in minima

20 years

Gold scales

as active

refuge

Dollars per barrel Brent

2/19/2020: 10,083 Max.

03-16-2020: 6,107 Min.

12-2-2020: 29,551 Max.

03-23-2020: 18,591 Min.

3-18-2020: 146.3 Max.

03-26-2020: 84.0 Min.

6-1-2020: 68.91 Max.

3-31-2020: 22.74 Min.

04-14-2020: 1,768 Max.

03-16-2020: 1,461 Min.

However, with positive prospects, the Stock Exchange rebounds to the upside. This is what happened after the presentation by the President of the United States, Donald Trump, of a plan to resume the country’s activity in mid-June.

Forecasts: it can still get worse

The most optimistic scenario of the IMF foresees a fall in GDP in Spain of 8%, the worst in its recent history, as long as there are no delays in containing the pandemic or a flare-up that confines part of the planet again. But it is not the only negative indicator. The collapse of fuels – exacerbated by the recently resolved conflict between Russia and Saudi Arabia – and light has brought the CPI to 0%, a figure that has not decreased since August 2016 – the forecast is that it will close the year in -0.3% -. These are some of the apocalyptic economic indicators left by the coronavirus crisis.


Inflation

will close the year

at negative rate

The economy

Spanish is

will collapse

this year

Breaks the

trend of

six years of

I stop on the downside

* IMF forecast

(2020 and 2021)

Source: Ministry

of the Treasury.

* IMF forecast

(2020 and 2021)

Source: Bank

from Spain.

Inflation

will close the year

at negative rate

The economy

Spanish is

will collapse

this year

Breaks the

trend of

six years of

I stop on the downside

* IMF forecast

(2020 and 2021)

Source: Ministry

of the Treasury.

* IMF forecast

(2020 and 2021)

Source: Bank

from Spain.

The economy

Spanish is

will collapse

this year

Inflation

will close the year

at negative rate

Breaks the

trend of

six years of

I stop on the downside

* IMF forecast

(2020 and 2021)

* IMF forecast

(2020 and 2021)

Source: Ministry

of the Treasury.

Source: Bank

from Spain.

The economy

Spanish is

will collapse

this year

Inflation

will close the year

at negative rate

Breaks the

trend of

six years of

I stop on the downside

* IMF forecast

(2020 and 2021)

* IMF forecast

(2020 and 2021)

Source: Ministry

of the Treasury.

Source: Bank

from Spain.

.

Covid-19: Are asymptomatic children a vector of the epidemic?

Hello,

Following Emmanuel Macron’s announcement of the gradual reopening of schools on May 11, many of you asked us about the role of children in the spread of the epidemic. And especially those who have been contaminated and who show little or no symptoms.

Because the fact is now well established: children infected with SARS-CoV-2 develop symptoms of the disease much less frequently than adults. The low rate of positive diagnoses among the youngest could, for this reason, conceal a much higher infection rate. On this subject, works prepublished end of March – who have not yet been independently reviewed – suggest that children in contact with infected individuals are just as likely to be infected as adults under the age of 60.

However, several unknowns remain. First, it is not yet known whether infected children transmit the disease as easily as adults.

On the one hand, contaminations from child to adult are currently unnoticed in the case of asymptomatic contaminations.

On the other hand, little data exists on the infectiousness of the secretions (postillons, sputum) of children without symptoms.

More generally, the infectious potential of asymptomatic individuals, whatever their age, is not yet sufficiently documented – notably due to the difficulty of tracing these cases. At the beginning of April, WHO recalled the risk of contamination during the last days of incubation, at least three days before the onset of symptoms (“pre-symptomatic” transmission). Cases of transmission from carriers who never show symptoms can only be documented with great difficulty.

For all these reasons, the formulations used in the scientific literature devoted to this subject are still conditional (the asymptomatic character “Increases the possibility that children can be facilitators of viral transmission “, Etc.). All authors call for further investigation “On the role of children in the chain of transmission.”

Researchers working on pandemic modeling are just as circumspect. “In studies published since mid-March, including a study prepublished this April 12, we’re looking at several age classes, including a school age class. “, explains Jean-Stéphane Dhersin, researcher at the CNRS and at the Sorbonne Paris Nord University and deputy scientific director of the INSMI (National Institute of Mathematical Sciences and their Interactions). “In the models used [pour estimer les effets des mesures sanitaires], a number of parameters have to be estimated: assumptions are made that people can get the disease, that they can be infectious, and that they can spread it. However concerning children, for the moment, we do not know everything. Particularly because an active test campaign in the general population has not yet been carried out, which is the most effective way of obtaining information. In the models, data are sometimes used that are available for influenza, but it is not known if this is relevant. At this time, it is unclear whether children play an important role in the spread of the epidemic. “

Expert opinions marked by uncertainty

On this dossier, the opinions of experts remain divergent. Assuming asymptomatic children are as contagious as adults, some point out that their social interactions are based on more and more prolonged physical contact than their elders – increasing the risk of infection.

In an interview granted in March to the Swiss daily Time, Arnaud L’Huillier, pediatrician and infectious disease specialist, conversely estimated that children would transmit SARS-CoV-2 less than they would participate in the spread of the flu virus. According to him, the coronavirus in circulation “Affects especially the deep respiratory tract and does not make the nose run, which in children is an important vector for the dissemination of pathogens”.

In an exchange with the AFP, Professor Keith O’Neal, epidemiologist at the University of Nottingham, noted that asymptomatic carrier children were less risky for the community gathered in a school “That entrusted to grandparents” by adults with no other childcare solution.

At the Ministry of National Education, we are told that the risk associated with asymptomatic or pre-symptomatic transmissions in schoolyards “Is one of the points to be discussed with the social partners” to prepare for the end of containment on May 11. “It is still too early to answer these questions”.

This April 14 sure France 2, Minister Jean-Michel Blanquer stressed that going back to school would not be mandatory ” at the end of confinement. “The goal is that between May 11 and July 4 (summer vacation date), we have successfully resocialized […] that allows you to get back into learning. “

In an exchange with the journalists of France Inter, pediatrician Robert Cohen announced on April 14 the launch of a study in Ile-de-France on 600 children, intended to assess the percentage of asymptomatic patients carrying the virus.

cordially

Listen to the weekly behind the scenes podcast from CheckNews. This week: War of masks: does the state use regional orders?


Florian Gouthière

.

Covid-19: can we predict the evolution of the virus thanks to the weather?

A long green stripe on a world map. What if Sars-Cov-2, a virus associated with Covid-19 disease, was different from its congeners Sars-Cov-1 and Mers? What if it was, like the flu, a seasonal virus? For an uninitiated, this does not mean much. But for the virologist that is Mohamed Sajadi, of the Institute of Human Virology, at the University of Maryland, in the United States, and member of the Global Virus Network, this raises other questions: would this new virus be influenced by weather and climate conditions? If so, could we not include these factors in epidemiological models to anticipate the spread of the disease?

The researcher brought together six American and Iranian colleagues who worked with their various skills on this hypothesis. Their conclusion: Covid-19 would spread particularly quickly when subjected to a certain combination of humidity and temperature, which has been found

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Aude Massiot

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“In confinement, the benefit of massive screening has not been demonstrated” – Release

“In confinement, the benefit of massive screening has not been demonstrated” Release.

Coronavirus from A to Z – Release

like animal

The World Health Organization (WHO) reminded him as early as January 12: “The data seem to clearly indicate that the outbreak is associated with exposures at a fish market in Wuhan” (see: Hubei). The hypothesis of a zoonosis, a disease transmitted by animals, is therefore preferred. February 7, the scientific journal Nature asks: “Has the pangolin spread the coronavirus to humans”? But nothing yet formally attests to this. Since there is nothing to certify that Sars-CoV-2, another name for Covid-19, very close to a virus detected in bats, comes from animals. The SARS coronavirus was transmitted from the civet to humans in China in 2002 and that of the Dromedary Sea to humans in Saudi Arabia in 2012.

as a balance sheet

As of Wednesday, almost two months after the virus appeared, 81,191 cases have been confirmed, including 78,064 in China. 39 countries have known or are experiencing cases. 2,728 people died, 30,310 were treated

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Christian Losson

,


Catherine Mallaval

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Coronavirus Covid-19: did we miss the opportunity to avoid it 7 years ago?

In 2013, Zheng-Li Shi and colleagues of the Wuhan Institute of Virology identify in a bat of them coronavirus very close to SARS-CoV Characteristics
SARS-CoV (or SARS coronavirus) is a virus from the Coronaviridae family, of the genus Coronavirus. It has a positive linear RNA type genome, the 30,000 nucleotides of which code for around ten … “data-image =” https://cdn.futura-sciences.com/buildsv6/images/midioriginal/c/a/b /cab68853d3_50035997_coronavirus-dr.jpg “data-url =” https://news.google.com/sante/definitions/medecine-sars-cov-7956/ “data-more =” Read more “>SARS-CoV, the cause of the epidemic is an increase in an endemic disease or the appearance of a large number of patients where the disease was … “data-url =” https: // news. google.com/sante/definitions/vie-epidemie-3837/ “data-more =” Read more “>epidemic from 2002-2003. CoV-WIV1, in particular, is then considered dangerous because it has a enzyme converter (ACE2), which serves as a receiver for the virus in humans. It turns out today that this virus shares 96.2% of its genome with SARS-CoV-2, which is behind the current epidemic.

Several warnings have been issued since. In 2015, researchers from the University of North Carolina publish in the journal Nature Medicine a study entitled: ” SARS-like bat coronavirus cluster threatens to emerge in humans “. A year later, in 2016, the same team launched a new alert and stated in the review PNAS that the famous WIV1 virus has the ability to directly infect humans and spread by human-to-human transmission. The study is also titled ” WIV1-CoV virus similar to SARS Agent
The SARS agent is a virus from the Coronavirus family (known to cause simple colds), SARS-CoV.
Transmission of SARS
The virus would have … “data-image =” https://cdn.futura-sciences.com/buildsv6/images/midioriginal/4/4/0/4403e17e94_50034664_sras-dr.jpg “data-url =” https: //news.google.com/sante/definitions/medecine-sras-4230/ “data-more =” Read more “>SARS ready to emerge in humans
“. In 2018, a other Chinese study signals the presence of an antibody structure
An antibody is a protein complex. If every organism with an immune system codes for billions of different antibodies, they all have the same global characteristics. These are … “data-image =” https://cdn.futura-sciences.com/buildsv6/images/midioriginal/a/5/4/a543c37e56_50034150_ Antibody-yohan-gfld.jpg “data-url =” https: //news.google.com/sante/definitions/medecine-anticorps-93/ “data-more =” Read more “>antibody virus bat SARS-CoV type in several residents in the province of Yunnan, it therefore corresponds to the point on the surface where the perceived intensity of an earthquake is greatest (maximum magnitude). Indeed, since the epicenter is the point in … “data-image =” https://cdn.futura-sciences.com/buildsv6/images/midioriginal/f/3/e/f3e900a7f5_45441_def-hypocentre-lorangeo- wikimediacommons.jpg “data-url =” https://news.google.com/planete/definitions/structure-terre-epicentre-3658/ “data-more =” Read more “>epicenter of the Covid-19 epidemic. So many warnings that should probably have been taken more seriously.

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