Disastrous economic data weigh on the Dax

Frankfurt The series historically poor economic datathat investors currently have to digest does not stop. That is also a burden for the German Leading index Dax. The stock market barometer closed on Friday 1.7 percent lower at 10,336 points.

“This drug had recently made a significant leap on the stock markets,” said Thomas Altmann, portfolio manager at QC Partners. “Therefore, this announcement is a clear warning to all euphoric investors.”

The puzzle is only slowly completing, how badly the corona pandemic is paralyzing the global economy. It was announced on Friday that the UK retail collapsed by more than four percent in March compared to the same period in the previous year – a decline that was not achieved even in the 2008 financial crisis.

Also in Japan the retail sector is idle: Merchants in the capital city of Tokyo reported a drop in sales of almost 35 percent in March. A similar decline to this extent is not to be found in the Bloomberg financial services time series.

There were also bad numbers from industry on Friday: The European commercial vehicle market fell almost half in March due to the coronavirus pandemic. With 105,196 vehicles, 47.3 percent fewer were registered than in the same month last year, the responsible industry association Acea announced on Friday in Brussels.

The number of registrations had already declined in January and February, but the decline in March was again considerably greater. The falls were most pronounced in the countries particularly hard hit by the Covid 19 pandemic: Italy (minus 66.1 percent), Spain (minus 64.4 percent) and France (minus 63.1 percent).

The managers surveyed by the Ifo Institute also assessed their situation as worse and are also more skeptical about the future. The published on Friday Ifo business climate index for April fell more clearly than expected: from 85.9 points in March to 74.3 points. That’s the lowest value ever measured. Economists interviewed by the Reuters news agency had expected a drop to 80.0 points. “The mood among German companies is catastrophic,” said Ifo President Clemens Fuest.

On Thursday, the GfK consumption barometer in Germany and the purchasing manager indices for the European service sector signaled that Germany and Europe were heading for a severe recession. The European Union is steering because of the corona crisis, according to EU Industry Commissioner Thierry Breton towards a drop in economic output of five to ten percent.

In addition, investors are also looking at the Federal Chancellor. Angela Merkel consults with representatives of business and trade unions on the corona crisis. This could also involve possible further easing and economic policy measures.

Look at the individual values

Deutsche Bank and Commerzbank: The rating agency Standard & Poor’s (S&P) has given it a thumbs-up because of the economic impact of the corona crisis at Commerzbank, Deutsche Bank and other German financial institutions. In the Commerzbank S&P downgraded the credit rating by one grade to “BBB +”, the outlook remains “negative”, as the credit rating officers announced on Thursday.

At Deutsche Bank, S&P confirmed the rating of the creditworthiness with “BBB +”, but lowered the outlook to “negative” from “stable”. While the creditworthiness guards doubt that Commerzbank can implement its new strategy “Commerzbank 5.0”, including the planned sale of the Polish subsidiary M-Bank, as planned, they see the restructuring of Deutsche Bank basically on track. The shares of the two largest German financial institutions fell by 6.8 percent (Deutsche Bank) and 4.1 percent (Commerzbank) and were among the biggest losers on the stock market on Friday.

Lufthansa: Down eight percent it went for the papers from Germany’s largest airline. So that leads Lufthansa the Dax’s list of losers. At € 7.20, the shares cost less than they had since the Sars pandemic 17 years ago. According to insiders, the airline plans to put together a government aid package of up to ten billion euros early next week. The loss increased to EUR 1.2 billion in the first quarter. Due to the pandemic, air traffic in Germany is almost completely stopped.

Nestlé: The Swiss food giant, on the other hand, is doing very well. Nestle accelerated its growth in the starting quarter 2020. Organic sales growth in the first three months was 4.3 percent, as Nestle announced on Friday. The share rose 1.8 percent. As the full impact of the Covid 19 pandemic could not yet be assessed, Nestle is tentatively sticking to the original outlook for 2020 as a whole. The Group expects organic sales growth and the underlying operating profit margin to improve.

Sanofi: The French pharmaceutical company benefits from the strong demand for painkillers and antipyretic due to the spread of the coronavirus. In the first quarter, currency-adjusted profit rose by 16.1 percent to 2.04 billion euros Sanofi announced. Sales climbed 6.6 percent to EUR 8.97 billion. Around half of the profit and sales growth is due to the corona pandemic. The corona effect will subside in the course of the second quarter. Sanofi confirmed the forecast for 2020. The group has set itself a five percent increase in earnings per share. The papers climbed 1.9 percent.

Eni: The Italian oil company the corona pandemic and collapsing oil prices drove a billion dollar loss in the first quarter. The net loss was 2.9 billion euros, as the Italian company announced on Friday in Rome. Had in the previous year Eni earned just under 1.1 billion euros. For example, Eni had to adjust the book value of its oil inventories to falling market prices, as well as depreciation on oil and gas activities. Adjusted, Eni achieved a small plus of 59 million euros, a fraction of the previous year’s profit of 992 million euros. Revenues plummeted by a quarter to around 13.9 billion euros. The stock lost 2.9 percent.

Look at other asset classes

Oil prices continued their recovery from the previous day on Friday despite the price losses in the meantime. The decisive factor on Wednesday, however, was not the easing of weakness in demand and excess supply, rather political tensions between the USA and Iran caused rising risk premiums for crude oil. In Asian trade, a barrel (159 liters) of the North Sea type Brent last cost $ 21.57, up 1.1 percent. The US WTI was traded at $ 17.09 per barrel, up 3.5 percent.

The euro exchange rate rose slightly on Friday. The European common currency was trading at $ 1.0804 in the late afternoon. The European Central Bank (ECB) set the reference rate on Friday at $ 1.0800 (Thursday: 1.0772).

Italy’s central bank Market insiders broadened their purchases of domestic government bonds on behalf of the ECB on Friday. The Banca d’Italia is buying slightly more titles on average than in the past few days, said a primary trader. A second insider said that she was more active on the market. Yields on ten-year bonds fell around ten basis points over the course of the day to 1.899 percent. They had previously climbed above the two percent mark when disappointment over the results of the EU summit on Thursday spread on the bond market.

With agency material.

Here is the page with the DAX course, here is the current tops & flops in the Dax. Current Short sales of investors can be found in our Short sales database.

“When planning wealth, the rule is: never get out completely!”

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Dax current: Dax closes in the profit zone – Wirecard more than eleven percent up

The leading German index continues to rise. Investors mainly rely on Wirecard. According to news of the manipulation allegations, the payment service provider’s stock benefited. .

Dax current: Dax oscillates around the zero line – gold price in euros at a new record high

The gold price is unstoppable. There are currently many reasons why precious metals are attractive to investors as a stable investment. .

Dax current: Dax remains in the red – gold price in euros at a new record high

The gold price is unstoppable. There are currently many reasons why precious metals are attractive to investors as a stable investment. .

Dax current: Dax remains in the red – Wirecard shares rise by more than five percent

There are increasing voices that share prices will soon collapse again. The numbers in the “Big Five” stocks may be causing new turmoil. .

Dax current: Dax increases its losses – Wirecard shares increase by more than five percent

There are increasing voices that share prices will soon collapse again. The numbers in the “Big Five” stocks may be causing new turmoil. .

Hamburg demands taxes from M.M. Warburg back

Cologne So now: The Hamburg financial administration is taking action at the private bank M.M. Warburg through. For the years 2007 to 2009, the tax authorities require repayments of 160 million euros.

It is a new gait by the Hamburg tax authority, the M.M. Warburg had granted for many years. Although it had long been known that the private bank was involved in cum-ex transactions in many ways, the tax office did not respond. Cum-Ex transactions are share deals around the dividend date, with which the actors can be reimbursed once or twice for a capital gains tax that has been paid only once.

M.M. Warburg acted both as a seller and as a buyer of the shares. Typical of Cum-Ex transactions was the involvement of short sellers who sold papers with which they only stocked up after the dividend cut-off date.

“Good for taxpayers, but an embarrassment for the Hamburg Senate,” said Fabio De Masi, deputy chairman of the parliamentary group of the party “Die Linke”, the decision of the authority. “A judge in Bonn saved Hamburg from losing millions with his verdict on cum-ex transactions. The Hamburg tax authorities had known for years that Warburg’s transactions would have made no sense at all without deliberate Cum-Ex design, ”said de Masi.

graphic

Just over a month ago, the 12th Grand Criminal Court of the Bonn Regional Court had sentenced two British stock traders, first as bankers at Hypovereinsbank and then involved in the cum-ex business with the finance company Ballance. Her best customers included M.M. Warburg.

Warburg should pay 176 million euros

Both the group and the banking subsidiary Warburg Invest were involved in the process. The court later severed the Warburg Invest case, but not against the M.M. Warburg group. With the judgment, it ordered the bank to collect 176 million euros in proceeds from the crime.

The bank defends itself. In their view, the years up to 2009 are already time-barred. In addition, the entire tax cannot be levied, after all, many actors have participated.

In the Bonn proceedings, the bank stated that it was prepared to repay the profits from the business regardless of the recognition of a debt, but not the full tax. “The majority of the difference between the amounts mentioned was received by other market participants, some of whom are being investigated,” the bank said at the time.

The Hamburg authorities apparently no longer share this view. It is not entirely clear how the sum of the recovery notices is made up, but the main issue is probably the gross amounts from the tax refunds.

The tax authority now judges the statute of limitations as the Bonn judges. For the years 2010 and 2011 M.M. Warburg recently paid his tax liability – at least for the time being.

The institute transferred a good 50 million euros to the tax authorities. The appeals continue. “The Warburg Group and the Warburg Bank never had the intention of engaging in, promoting, or participating in agreements that were contrary to tax law,” said a spokesman.

Hamburg also hesitated for a long time with regard to the years 2010 and 2011. Only when the Federal Ministry of Finance intervened did the tax authorities claim the tax back.

More: As the Hamburg bank M.M. Warburg rejects allegations of influencing tax matters.

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Dax on a recovery course despite further oil price turmoil

Dusseldorf The German stock market starts trading nicely. In the first trading hour, the index was up 1.1 percent at 10,357 points.

The oil price has dominated the market for the second day in a row. The renewed sell-off on the oil market shows that the historic collapse late Monday evening, which temporarily pushed the price of US crude oil down to minus $ 38 a barrel, was not a singular event, not a one-time market failure. It was only the preliminary climax of a crisis that the oil market has never experienced before.

The answer to the question is crucial: If the June futures contract falls on the US variety WTI as well as the May future below zero dollars in the coming weeks?

The price of a barrel (159 liters) of the US grade WTI for delivery in June has dropped to $ 10.30 today, a drop of more than ten percent. The Brent crude price reached $ 15.98 a barrel, the lowest since June 1999.

Netflix’s strong numbers are reassuring on the stock markets. Due to the corona crisis, the streaming service has reached the record number of 15.8 million new subscribers worldwide in just three months. The cautious outlook sent the stock Although one percent in the aftermarket in the US markets, it could have been worse. On the German stock market, the paper rose 3.2 percent at the opening.

The requirements from overseas are mixed. The US markets have given in significantly, but were able to reduce their losses slightly after the market closed in Germany. The futures contracts on the US stock exchanges signal an increase of 0.2 to 0.5 percent at the start of trading. The prices of the shares on the Tokyo stock exchange fell for the second day in succession after the US crude oil slump, and the Chinese indices rose.

Dates today

The most important number comes from the USA: Because of the oversupply of tank farm capacities, which are apparently almost exhausted worldwide, investors are paying attention to the figures for the US inventory in the afternoon of Central European Time.

On Wednesday, however, company figures are also in focus. Among other things, pose AT&T, Roche and the US tech exchange Nasdaq released their quarterly figures. Chip manufacturer STMicro and US laboratory supplier Thermo Fisher also wrote their books. The latter wants the German competitor Qiagen take over for a good ten billion dollars.
Main focus on the impact of the coronavirus pandemic on business, Börsianer said

Look at individual values

Wirecard: The “Day X”, the moment of truth is there for the online payment service provider: The final KPMG report is due to be published today – in full, how Wirecard has promised. Management hopes to finally draw a line under the debates of the past. At the opening of the stock exchange, the Wirecard share rose by 2.8 percent.

In the run-up to the publication of the quarterly figures, hedge funds had increased their speculation on falling prices at Wirecard. This quota is now 4.28 percent of all freely tradable shares, i.e. 45.27 million shares. (As of April 20)

Further rising prices are likely to put hedge funds under pressure. Because such a short sale, a speculation on falling prices, follows the following principle: So far, the hedge funds have borrowed and sold the 45.27 million shares of Wirecard shareholders such as investment funds.

But in order to return these shares, you have to buy them again beforehand. Of course, if possible at a lower rate.

With an average trading volume of around 1.65 million shares per day this buyback of 45.27 million is not easy to implement.
In the past four weeks, the Wirecard share has increased by more than 40 percent, almost 14 percent since the beginning of the year.

STMicroelectronics: Europe’s largest chip manufacturer expects a decline in sales as a result of the collapse in demand in the auto industry due to corona virus. A minus of around ten percent is expected in the second quarter. However, the share price increases by 4.3 percent. The German competitor also benefits from this Infineon. Infineon paper increases by 2.7 percent.

What the chart technique says

There is currently a lot at stake with the leading German index, the German “blue chips” have a lot to lose. If the break in core support proves to be sustainable at around 10,300 to 10,000 meters, according to chart technology, investors must assume that it has a “second pillar”. Specifically, that means: The Dax should drop again towards 8255 points and in extreme cases even undercut the mark.

The closing price on Tuesday was already below the important mark at 10,279 points. The leading index started its rally of 10,279 points in December 2018, which lasted until a record high in February 2020. The brand was “confirmed” on Tuesday last week because the index had ended trading there.

Despite the friendly start on Wednesday, investors should look south. In the course of the upward recovery, two so-called upward price gaps have remained open since mid-March. With such gaps there was no price position during Dax trading, the lowest price on a trading day was higher than the highest price on the previous day. Such upward price gaps are an important resistance, according to chart technology.

The first gap is closed when the 10,097 points are reached, the second at 9,627 points.

At 11,025 meters there is an important resistance on the top. There is the so-called 50 percent correction of the overarching trend, at which counter-movements very often end. Currently related to the Dax, this means that the downward trend has so far been from the record high in mid-February at 13,795 points to the low point in mid-March at 8255 points.

The 50 percent mark is accordingly at 11,025 points, i.e. exactly in the middle between record high and low point. With the increase to 10,820 points last Tuesday, the index of this brand had already approached. But the focus is currently on the lower price brands.

“When planning wealth, the rule is: never get out completely!”

Here is the page with the DAX course, here is the current tops & flops in the Dax. Current Short sales of investors can be found in our Short sales database.

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Oil price collapse also pushes the Dax down

Dax curve

View of the Dax curve in the Frankfurt trading hall.


(Photo: dpa)

Dusseldorf The German stock market cannot escape yesterday’s drop in the price of oil. The DAX is down 2.3 percent in the morning trade at 10,435 points.

The topic on the markets is the oil price collapse on Monday evening, which occurred in Germany after the market closed. In the United States, the price of oil plummeted for the first time in its history due to the coronavirus pandemic. Sellers had to pay money for someone to take their oil: The price of the futures contract for the US variety WTI for May plummeted Monday by almost $ 56 to minus $ 37.63 a barrel (159 liters).

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Oil price collapse also pulls the Dax into the red

Dusseldorf The German stock market cannot escape yesterday’s drop in the price of oil. Of the Dax is down 1.9 percent in the first hour of trading at 10,473 points.

The topic on the markets is the oil price collapse on Monday evening, which occurred after Germany closed on the stock exchange. In the United States, the price of oil plummeted for the first time in its history due to the coronavirus pandemic. Sellers have to pay money for someone to take their oil: The price for the US WTI futures contract for May plummeted Monday by almost $ 56 to minus $ 37.63 a barrel (159 liters).

Why this is relevant: Should the US oil industry with its many smaller companies come under even greater pressure, experts fear a wave of bankruptcies that could possibly also burden the financial sector.

The other burden is the new quarterly figures. Already on Monday, exchange expert Stephan Heibel warned after evaluating the Handelsblatt survey Dax-Sentiment: “Downside potential threatens during the reporting season, because company figures will show the extent of the economic damage of the quarantine measures in the coming days and weeks”.

This forecast became reality a day later: IBM was the first company in the US tech industry to present figures and, due to the extreme uncertainty, canceled all forecasts for 2020. Even if company boss Arvind Krishna emphasized the healthy balance sheet and financial situation of the company. After all, the “high dividend is certain”.

But Wall Street does not want to hear anything about it: the stock plummeted by a good four percent. And IBM paper also fell by around four percent on the German stock market.

In the US, the other technology giants are like Microsoft, Amazon (AWS Cloud), Google Cloud, Alibaba or Oracle will follow in the coming days. They will not be able to avoid every negative trend either.

In Germany, accordingly SAP– Share under pressure, which has to work out two negative reports. In addition to the weak numbers from IBM, the company separates from its co-boss Jennifer Morgan in the midst of the corona crisis. The 48-year-old will leave SAP on April 30.

The share loses 2.6 percent at the opening. The software manufacturer is the most valuable DAX company and, due to its high market capitalization, has the greatest influence of all 30 values ​​on the price development of the stock market barometer.

It doesn’t help that Europe’s largest software company made a significant profit in the first quarter. Between January and March, Walldorf residents earned 811 million euros. SAP had already released preliminary figures and had to cut its annual forecast due to the Corona crisis. The final indicators from SAP corresponded to the preliminary, a dealer said.

The requirements from overseas are weak: the oil price collapse has not only burdened the US stock exchanges, but has also clearly lost the Asian markets. Futures on the US selection index S&P 500 have turned negative after initial gains, signaling a weaker opening of the trade.

Look at the individual values

Drägerwerk: The medical technology manufacturer, which is very busy due to the corona pandemic, has apparently raised new capital. The manufacturer of ventilation machines and other devices for intensive care medicine claims to have gross proceeds of EUR 76.50 million from the issue of around one million preferred shares. The shares were placed with institutional investors by means of an accelerated placement process. The share loses 1.7 percent. Last week had the hedge fund Sandbar Asset Management its speculation on falling prices of the Drägerwerk share has increased to 0.71 percent three freely tradable shares.

Danone: Due to the uncertainties resulting from the corona pandemic, the French food company has now completely withdrawn its already reduced annual targets. The effects of the global shutdown are not foreseeable. In the first quarter, the group posted sales growth of 1.7 percent to 6.24 billion euros. The share loses 0.4 percent.

Sartorius: The laboratory supplier started the year with double-digit growth rates. With an increase in sales of 16.5 percent to EUR 509.9 million, the operating result rose by 20.9 percent to EUR 137.9 million. The Management Board raised its forecast for the full year and increased the share by 4.9 percent.

Look at other asset classes

The price of US oil is after its historic fall into negative territory on Tuesday again climbed slightly above zero dollars. With weak trading, the price of the US WTI futures contract rose by $ 39 in May to $ 0.94 a barrel (159 liters). In contrast, the price of the North Sea variety Brent fell by 3.6 percent to $ 24.67.

On Monday, the oil price in the United States plummeted by just under $ 56 to minus $ 37.63 a barrel (159 liters) due to the coronavirus pandemic, thus falling for the first time in its history.

The pandemic has caused global oil demand to collapse by almost a third. Buyers are faced with the problem that the oil storage capacity will soon be exhausted.

The yield differential remains on the bond market (Spread) between German and Italian government bonds at a high level. With a term of ten years, this value is 2.37 percent. The corresponding Italian bonds are currently returning at 1.944 percent and are approaching their monthly highs.

The European heads of state and government are unlikely to make a final decision about a reconstruction fund at the EU summit. That was what EU diplomats said. Chancellor Angela Merkel had already rejected so-called corona bonds yesterday.

“When planning wealth, the rule is: never get out completely!”

What the chart technique says

The leading German index is again approaching its important support zone, which is in the range of 10,391 to 10,279 points. From the second brand, the leading index started its rally in December 2018, which continued until a record high in February 2020. The brand was “confirmed” last Tuesday because the index ended trading right there.

Just below that there are so-called price gaps for which there were no quotes this year. The last gap would be closed at a Dax level of 10,097 points.

At 11,025 meters there is an important resistance on the top. There is the so-called 50 percent correction of the overarching trend, at which counter-movements very often end. Currently related to the Dax, this means that the downward trend has so far been from the record high in mid-February at 13,795 points to the low point in mid-March at 8255 points.

The 50 percent mark is accordingly at 11,025 points, i.e. exactly in the middle between record high and low point. With the increase to 10,820 points last Tuesday, the index of this brand has already approached.

Should the Frankfurt benchmark break this 11,025 point mark, the next resistance would be at 11,266 points, the August 2019 interim low.

Here is the page with the DAX course, here is the current tops & flops in the Dax. Current Short sales of investors can be found in our Short sales database.

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