DAX outlook: mood barometer cloudy outlook

Frankfurt In the past weeks there have been repeated attempts to recover the course, on some days one could believe that the corona pandemic has already been overcome. But on Friday, disillusionment returned – the collapsed ifo business climate index made the whole dilemma clear.

The course of the mood barometer looks like a “Highway to Hell”, was the analysis of the VP Bank. The index is now significantly below the values ​​of the crisis year 2009. The simple message for the future was: “Massive income losses are imminent. We will all get poorer. This applies not only to Germany, but to all economies. ”Sometimes it is better to hear the unvarnished truth.

Other analysts and experts are also skeptical about the weekly outlook. Cautious savings by consumers and companies create a completely different economic and inflation environment than one knows from the post-war period, the analysts at MFS Investment Management believe.

They expect the earnings recovery to be weaker than the market and point to the possible dilution of earnings through capital increases. They particularly highlight 2008 as a comparison.

“When the extreme risk of the international financial crisis subsided, companies were no longer concerned with distributions, but with recapitalization. To this end, new shares were issued – at the expense of existing shareholders, whose capital was heavily diluted, ”said the investment professionals. The new wave of recapitalization has probably just started. In the past few weeks, leisure companies and service providers in the United States and Europe have already offered new shares.

Warning to bargain hunters

The BLI – Banque de Luxembourg Investments is also cautious. “The financial markets are currently giving the impression that they are underestimating the extent of the economic damage and are counting on a rapid recovery as soon as the containment measures are reversed,” is the BLI’s assessment.

Many investors are conditioned to view any decline as an opportunity to buy. However, the analysts recall that while the fall in share prices in February / March was dramatic, the valuations were also very high. As a result, the markets today are anything but cheap, especially after the recent price recovery.

Quality companies with a very solid balance sheet, one or more sustainable competitive advantages and the ability to self-finance should be preferred. The main factor that will continue to speak for stocks remains the low interest rate level and thus the lack of alternatives. At the same time, gold will become an “indispensable part of a balanced portfolio because of the inflation risks.”

After the significant recovery since mid-March, the European stock market has recently lost some momentum, the Weberbank experts believe. In addition, the balance sheet season that is already underway shows significant impacts on corporate balance sheets due to the global “lockdowns”.

Correspondingly, the analysts have also significantly lowered their profit expectations for industrial companies, but also for the banking and energy sectors. Due to the economic slump, banks faced increased write-downs on their credit books and the massive drop in yields clouded interest income. Most recently, they also negatively impacted the rating agency Standard & Poor’s (S&P).

The Deutsche Bank and the Commerzbank were therefore particularly under pressure on Friday “We continue to distance ourselves from these sectors and prefer creditworthy pharmaceuticals or companies from the non-cyclical consumption. In addition, titles from the technology sector are promising in our eyes, ”said the Weberbank experts.

Central banks meet worldwide

If the economic situation continues to be poor, the states and central banks will have to take further support measures. Robert Greil, chief strategist at Merck Finck Privatbankiers, sees an opportunity for this next week because the European Central Bank, the US Federal Reserve and the Bank of Japan are meeting.

“As a result of the unprecedented economic downturn caused by the Covid 19 consequences, all central banks will reaffirm their willingness to support,” says Greil. The economic downturn left neither governments nor central banks a choice but to take further measures to support and recover the economy.

The gross domestic product for the first quarter of 2020 will be published in the euro area on Thursday, and new growth figures will come in the US on Wednesday. Further important economic data in Germany are the preliminary inflation figures and the labor market report for April.

According to DZ Bank, the next quarter should bring an improvement in the economy, but there does not have to be a “V” or “I” recovery. This is not ignored on the stock market, many stocks are up to 80 percent down.

A large number of “mega-caps” hold up against this, mainly in the USA. Amazon, Google, Microsoft, Netflix and Facebook, but also Adobe or Comcast, be stable on the way. Things are also going well for the great values ​​of the “old economy”, including Pepsico, Johnson & Johnson, Procter & Gamble, Home depot and Pfizer. The German Leading index Dax the strategists from DZ Bank see 11,200 points by the end of the year, and the S & P-500 for US equities at 2,800. This would at least stabilize in the medium term.

More: Yield in Corona times: With which investments you can still make money

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How professionals position themselves on the stock exchange

Frankfurt Stock Exchange

Many investors are puzzled as to where the markets will go.


(Photo: dpa)

Frankfurt The uncertainty is great. The oil price and many stock prices are in the basement. The mood among many managers is bad. The corona crisis keeps the financial markets in suspense every day. Many investors are now thinking more than ever about where to invest their money in these unstable times.

Because the violent ups and downs on the markets shows that there is still no peace on the stock exchanges. This leaves many investors in doubt about their previous investments. Keep or prefer to sell? This is an important question for many investors, especially with equities.

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Wall Street gets off to a good start – US unemployment figures have dropped

Wall Street

The New York Stock Exchange is located on the famous street.

(Photo: AP)

Dusseldorf The declining number of first-time jobless claims in the US seems to be giving investors hope that the economy will quickly recover from the corona shock. The Dow Jones started the trading day with a profit increase of around one percent at 23,543 points. The situation was similar at the start of trading for the S&P 500 (2810 points) and the Nasdaq (8529 points).

The prospect of further stimulus from the US government had prompted investors to buy stocks again on Wednesday. The standard value index Dow Jones closed two percent higher at 23,475 points. The technology-heavy Nasdaq advanced 2.8 percent to 8495 points. The broad S&P 500 gained 2.3 percent to 2799 points.

As announced on Thursday, the number of first-time job applications in the US has decreased compared to the previous week: by April 18, 4.4 million Americans had registered unemployment. Previously, 5.2 million people applied for new support. In the meantime, 26 million people have lost their jobs within a month.

However, it is certain that the corona pandemic thus slowed the positive development of the US labor market: In February, the USA celebrated the lowest unemployment rate in decades, and until March, initial applications were regularly below 100,000 a week. Some analysts estimate the US unemployment rate as high as 15 percent.

Look at the individual values

Of the Casino operator Las Vegas Sands expects the important Asian business to recover quickly as soon as the travel restrictions there are lifted. Las Vegas Sands shares then rose 13 percent, while competitors Wynn and MGM gained up to 12 percent.

Things looked worse with the papers from Target out. Although the retailer’s online sales almost quadrupled in the past quarter, thereby compensating for the losses due to closed stores, the share came under pressure: the company warned of shrinking profit margins due to wage increases for employees. The Target shares lost 5.9 percent.

With agency material.

More: Read here what moves the German stock market on Thursday.

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Bear market rally: extremes on the stock markets: analysts fear new slumps

Many experts do not trust the current rally on the global stock markets after the unprecedented crash of the stock markets. There are many reasons for that. .

Ten major banks are accused of manipulation of the corporate bond market

Deutsche Bank

The German money house is accused of years of manipulation.


(Photo: Reuters)

new York A US lawsuit accuses ten of the world’s largest banks of manipulating the corporate bond market. According to this, the money houses – including Deutsche Bank – have been asking for high prices for almost 14 years, as can be seen from court documents on Tuesday. As a result, investors were financially damaged.

The accused financial institutions include JPMorgan Chase, Bank of AmericaBarclays Citigroup, Credit SuisseDeutsche Bank Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, Royal Bank of Scotland and Wells Fargo. Bank of America, Barclays, Citigroup, Credit Suisse, Deutsche Bank, Goldman Sachs and Wells Fargo declined to comment.

More: Ex-top manager of Deutsche Bank sentenced to prison.

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Netflix wins significantly more customers than expected due to pandemic

Netflix

A man turns on Netflix: According to the streaming service, 15.8 million paying customers were added worldwide in the first quarter.


(Photo: dpa)

Los Angeles / Bangalore / Los Gatos The coronavirus pandemic brought Netflix significantly more viewers than expected in the first quarter. Worldwide, 15.8 million paying customers were added, said the US company on Tuesday after the market closed. Experts predicted nearly eight million, according to the FactSet research group. It brought it to the end of the quarter Netflix a total of almost 183 million paid memberships.

Netflix said that customer growth and the amount of time spent in front of the screen could decrease with the end of contact restrictions. Nevertheless, the company expects 7.5 million new customers worldwide in the current quarter, almost twice as many as analysts estimate.

Revenue for the quarter rose to $ 5.8 billion from $ 4.5 billion in the prior year period, roughly in line with expert expectations. Net income was 709 million, more than twice the previous quarter.

Netflix shares initially rose more than five percent in after-hours trading, but later turned negative. So far, it has gained more than a third this year. In terms of market value, Netflix was even able to beat its big rival Disney pass by.

More: Ufa boss Nico Hofmann: “We have to do similar things to football”.

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Dow Jones, Nasdaq, S&P 500: Oil price chaos leads to further losses on the US stock exchanges

Oil prices have not yet recovered after the historic crash. This puts pressure on the three most important US indices, they close in the loss zone. .

Short ETF speculation is tricky

Bull and bear on the edge of a crumbling cliff

To bet on price losses on the stock exchanges is only worthwhile in the short term.

(Photo: imago images / Ikon Images)

Equities, oil, gold – a look at the fund balance sheet for the first quarter shows that the bottom line is that investors have lost a lot of money in most asset classes. Investors who bet on falling prices have made money, but these bets are tricky.

So-called short ETFs are one way of speculating on falling prices from indices. These exchange-traded index funds reflect the opposite percentage development of indices.

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Investors are heavily invested, increasing the risk of a setback

Dusseldorf With regard to the stock market, investors are currently asking three questions: Has the worst survived on the financial markets? Is it time to buy the stocks that sold the most? Or should the recovery be used to make the portfolio crisis-proof for the next low blow?

Sentiment expert Stephan Heibel describes the current mood as “wait and see neutral”. The owner of the analysis house Animusx evaluates the weekly Handelsblatt survey on stock market sentiment, called Dax-Sentiment, among more than 3500 investors.

As long as the facts about the future easing measures and the economic effects do not become clearer, Heibel’s view should not see any major swings in one direction or the other: “Downside potential threatens during the reporting season, because company numbers will become the extent of the economic trend in the coming days and weeks Show damage to the quarantine measures. “

However, the sentiment analysis this week does not provide a clear recommendation to investors’ questions. “Gains in prices such as the opening on today’s trading day are an opportunity to sell one or the other position in the portfolio in order to have enough cash for subsequent purchases in the event of a setback,” says Heibel.

After the panic mood in March followed the bargain hunters, who are currently taking their speculative profits with them. Now the Dax has left its sales level again. If prices continued to rise, individual stocks and sectors would again be overvalued in Heibel’s view.

Among other things, the investment quota is queried in his more extensive Animusx sentiment survey. This rate is already back at a relatively high level. Many investors are already heavily invested again, as the overbought constitution of the US stock barometer S&P 500 shows, which has risen too high too quickly. “This means that the possibility of a continuation of the recovery rally is limited in the short term, the risk of a setback is greater,” explains Heibel. Because if many investors are already heavily invested, few potential buyers remain.

Results of the current survey

Overall, the mood among investors is divided: relief on the one hand that Chancellor Angela Merkel took the direction of “easing” on Wednesday. Disappointment on the other hand about the moderate steps.

This can also be seen from the current results of the Handelsblatt survey Dax-Sentiment. The panicky mood of the previous weeks has evaporated, but nobody can really be happy about the low stock market level. The short-term sentiment is neutral.

Accordingly, complacency is not yet back. Uncertainty remains a dominant feeling among investors, because politicians have only announced action “on sight”. How long will this exceptional situation last? Uncertainty about the answer to this question continues to cause great uncertainty among shareholders.

Investor expectations are also slipping further in the Handelsblatt survey. With a minus of 0.3 the bears dominate over the bulls for the first time since February. Because the hope for a quick end to the measures has been destroyed. Everyone will have to live with the special situation longer than we previously imagined.

Before that, investors hoped for a short shutdown followed by a violent restart including a backlog that should more than compensate for the losses in the second half of the year.

Since this hope has been destroyed, investors no longer want to invest. The willingness to invest has also decreased further. At the end of March, this sub-area of ​​the Dax sentiment reached a historic high of 5.8, since the start of the survey in September 2014, more investors than ever have been invested. Now this value has dropped to just 1.1.

Look at other indicators

The Stuttgart Euwax sentiment, in which private investors trade, has dropped to minus 11.4. That leads to the conclusion: They are buying more hedging products against falling prices again because they fear a second sell-off wave.

The professionals who secure themselves through the Frankfurt derivatives exchange Eurex, on the other hand, are betting on further rising prices. The put-call ratio has dropped to 0.8 and the average is 1.5. Institutionals have bought significantly more calls.

In the weeks before, the hedging positions of investment professionals in the United States were significantly larger than in Germany. But the put-call ratio of the Chicago futures exchange CBOE is currently returning to a normal level.

The investment ratio in US fund manager shares rose only marginally from 27 percent to 29 percent and remains at a historically low level. US private investors remain pessimistic, the bull-bear ratio is minus eight percent.

The “fear and greed indicator” of the US stock markets, calculated on the basis of technical market data, now shows a neutral state of the markets again with 44 percent. Other short-term indicators indicate that a correction in the US equity markets is imminent.

More: Exaggeratedly cheap: Analysts now see these 18 stocks as bargains

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How much dividend does Merck pay?

Will the 2020 Merck Annual General Meeting take place despite the corona virus?

No. The Merck Annual General Meeting is being postponed due to the current corona crisis. A new date has not yet been set.

When did the 2020 Merck Annual General Meeting actually take place?

On April 24, 2020, the Merck Annual General Meeting would have taken place in the Jahrhunderthalle Frankfurt, Pfaffenwiese 301, 65929 Frankfurt am Main.

how high is the Merck-Dividend 2020?

Merck KGaA shareholders proposed a dividend of EUR 1.30 per share for the 2019 financial year.

How high was the 2019 Merck dividend?

The 2019 dividend for the 2018 financial year was EUR 1.25.

When will Merck pay the 2020 dividend?

The dividend is due on the third banking day after the Annual General Meeting.

When does Merck Post share “ex dividend”?

On the first business day after the Annual General Meeting, the share is listed “ex dividend” – the price of the share is reduced by the value of the dividend.

When do I have to buy Merck shares in 2020 to receive dividends?

In order to receive the Merck dividend for the 2019 financial year, the shares must have been purchased at the latest on the day of the Annual General Meeting.

Author: Merck

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