“I will be your candidate, I will be a candidate for change” – World – Kommersant

The presidential campaign in Poland goes to the finish line. The current president Andrzej Duda and the candidate from the opposition coalition, the mayor of Warsaw, Rafal Tshaskovsky, entered the second round of elections. It is impossible to predict which of them will win the July 12 elections, Kommersant’s observer believes. Galina Dudina.

The first round of the presidential election in Poland still took place. It was supposed to be held on April 10, but in a pandemic, the authorities did not want to conduct entirely face-to-face elections and did not have time to amend the electoral law, allowing, in particular, voting by mail. So in April, it was decided simply not to open polling stations. After April 10, the vote was declared invalid and a new election date was set for June 28.

As a result, on Sunday, the Poles lined up in front of the polling stations: you could go inside only in masks and so as not to crowd – one person per four square meters of floor space. Many were able to vote in advance by mail thanks to the amendments to the electoral law that came into force. This opportunity was used by more than half a million voters.

However, if in April the ratings of President Andrzej Duda predicted victory for him almost in the first round, by June the Poles ceased to think that the president and the ruling Law and Justice party were coping so well with the crisis caused by the pandemic.

His position was complicated by the replacement of the main opponent. The main opposition force – the “Civil Coalition” – was originally supposed to be represented by an experienced politician, vice speaker of the lower house of parliament, Malgožata Kidava Blonska. However, after the April vote that did not take place, the mayor of Warsaw, 48-year-old Rafal Tshaskovsky, was nominated instead. In just a couple of months, he was able to almost catch up in the polls of the incumbent president – especially in those where it was proposed to make a choice between the two politicians.

Warsaw Mayor Rafal Tshaskovsky

Фото: Aleksandra Szmigiel, Reuters

Less than a week before the election, Mr. Duda flew to the United States for almost two days, where he held talks with US President Donald Trump. Apparently, his entourage suggested that a meeting with the American leader would bring political dividends to the president. True, contrary to the hopes of Polish politicians, Mr. Trump did not clarify the prospects for the redeployment of American troops from Germany to Poland and did not declare any significant agreements in the field of defense and security, confining himself to general statements. But, apparently, the rapid flight across the Atlantic still brought Mr. Dude extra points. According to polls, about a week before the election, about 41% of voters supported him. As a result, according to exit polls as of Monday morning, almost 43% of voters voted for him, and according to the results of processing 82% of the ballots, his result was already 45.7%.

«The advantage is great. I am very grateful, ”Mr. Duda assured his supporters immediately after the closure of polling stations.

Acting President of Poland Andrzej Duda

Acting President of Poland Andrzej Duda

Фото: Kacper Pempel REFILE – CORRECTING LOCATION, Reuters

Less than 30% of voters supported his rival, but this is a good result, considering that in April his rating was only about 10%. Now it’s important how the candidates who take the next places will behave, for example, independent candidate, journalist and TV presenter Shimon Hololovna (13.3% of the vote) and Krzysztof Bosak (7.4%). If their supporters support the opposition candidate, then President Duda, with his predominantly provincial conservative electorate, traditionally supporting Law and Justice, may lose his post.

“I have no doubt that the voters of Vladislav Kosinyak-Kamysh look at family values ​​as I do,” said President Duda, in turn, speaking about the voters of the candidate from the Polish Peasant Party Vladislav Kosinyak-Kamysh (2.6% votes).

Earlier, the president sharply opposed permission to enter into same-sex marriage, reminding voters: the family is a union of a man and a woman.

His main opponent, in turn, shows much greater tolerance for same-sex unions. The President also hopes for the support of Krzysztof Bosak supporters. And if he manages to once again take the presidency, then the average salary in Poland will rise to € 2 thousand, Mr. Duda is sure. “In Poland, they must finally earn money as in the rich countries of Western Europe,” he said.

“More than 58% of our society wants change,” the mayor of Warsaw commented on the results of the first round of elections. “I will be your candidate, I will be a candidate for change.”

True, in relations with Moscow, even a change in the president of Poland hardly threatens radical changes. On the eve of the election, Andrzej Duda tried to blame his opponent that in 2014, when “Russia attacked Ukraine,” his party “Civic Platform” (now “Civic Coalition”) was in power and could not provide the Poles with a sense of security. To which Mr. Tshaskovsky retorted: there are questions, such as the presence of American troops in Poland and “Russian aggression against Ukraine,” which do not cause disagreements between the government and the opposition, and President Dude should not have used them “for political games.”

.

“I will be your candidate, I will be a candidate for change” – World – Kommersant

The presidential campaign in Poland goes to the finish line. The current president Andrzej Duda and the candidate from the opposition coalition, the mayor of Warsaw, Rafal Tshaskovsky, entered the second round of elections. It is impossible to predict which of them will win the July 12 elections, Kommersant’s observer believes. Galina Dudina.

The first round of the presidential election in Poland still took place. It was supposed to be held on April 10, but in a pandemic, the authorities did not want to conduct entirely face-to-face elections and did not have time to amend the electoral law, allowing, in particular, voting by mail. So in April, it was decided simply not to open polling stations. After April 10, the vote was declared invalid and a new election date was set for June 28.

As a result, on Sunday, the Poles lined up in front of the polling stations: you could go inside only in masks and so as not to crowd – one person per four square meters of floor space. Many were able to vote in advance by mail thanks to the amendments to the electoral law that came into force. This opportunity was used by more than half a million voters.

However, if in April the ratings of President Andrzej Duda predicted victory for him almost in the first round, by June the Poles ceased to think that the president and the ruling Law and Justice party were coping so well with the crisis caused by the pandemic.

His position was complicated by the replacement of the main opponent. The main opposition force – the “Civil Coalition” – was originally supposed to be represented by an experienced politician, vice speaker of the lower house of parliament, Malgožata Kidava Blonska. However, after the April vote that did not take place, the mayor of Warsaw, 48-year-old Rafal Tshaskovsky, was nominated instead. In just a couple of months, he was able to almost catch up in the polls of the incumbent president – especially in those where it was proposed to make a choice between the two politicians.

Warsaw Mayor Rafal Tshaskovsky

Фото: Aleksandra Szmigiel, Reuters

Less than a week before the election, Mr. Duda flew to the United States for almost two days, where he held talks with US President Donald Trump. Apparently, his entourage suggested that a meeting with the American leader would bring political dividends to the president. True, contrary to the hopes of Polish politicians, Mr. Trump did not clarify the prospects for the redeployment of American troops from Germany to Poland and did not declare any significant agreements in the field of defense and security, confining himself to general statements. But, apparently, the rapid flight across the Atlantic still brought Mr. Dude extra points. According to polls, about a week before the election, about 41% of voters supported him. As a result, according to exit polls as of Monday morning, almost 43% of voters voted for him, and according to the results of processing 82% of the ballots, his result was already 45.7%.

«The advantage is great. I am very grateful, ”Mr. Duda assured his supporters immediately after the closure of polling stations.

Acting President of Poland Andrzej Duda

Acting President of Poland Andrzej Duda

Фото: Kacper Pempel REFILE – CORRECTING LOCATION, Reuters

Less than 30% of voters supported his rival, but this is a good result, considering that in April his rating was only about 10%. Now it’s important how the candidates who take the next places will behave, for example, independent candidate, journalist and TV presenter Shimon Hololovna (13.3% of the vote) and Krzysztof Bosak (7.4%). If their supporters support the opposition candidate, then President Duda, with his predominantly provincial conservative electorate, traditionally supporting Law and Justice, may lose his post.

“I have no doubt that the voters of Vladislav Kosinyak-Kamysh look at family values ​​as I do,” said President Duda, in turn, speaking about the voters of the candidate from the Polish Peasant Party Vladislav Kosinyak-Kamysh (2.6% votes).

Earlier, the president sharply opposed permission to enter into same-sex marriage, reminding voters: the family is a union of a man and a woman.

His main opponent, in turn, shows much greater tolerance for same-sex unions. The President also hopes for the support of Krzysztof Bosak supporters. And if he manages to once again take the presidency, then the average salary in Poland will rise to € 2 thousand, Mr. Duda is sure. “In Poland, they must finally earn money as in the rich countries of Western Europe,” he said.

“More than 58% of our society wants change,” the mayor of Warsaw commented on the results of the first round of elections. “I will be your candidate, I will be a candidate for change.”

True, in relations with Moscow, even a change in the president of Poland hardly threatens radical changes. On the eve of the election, Andrzej Duda tried to blame his opponent that in 2014, when “Russia attacked Ukraine,” his party “Civic Platform” (now “Civic Coalition”) was in power and could not provide the Poles with a sense of security. To which Mr. Tshaskovsky retorted: there are questions, such as the presence of American troops in Poland and “Russian aggression against Ukraine,” which do not cause disagreements between the government and the opposition, and President Dude should not have used them “for political games.”

.

“I will be your candidate, I will be a candidate for change” – World – Kommersant

The presidential campaign in Poland goes to the finish line. The current president Andrzej Duda and the candidate from the opposition coalition, the mayor of Warsaw, Rafal Tshaskovsky, entered the second round of elections. It is impossible to predict which of them will win the July 12 elections, Kommersant’s observer believes. Galina Dudina.

The first round of the presidential election in Poland still took place. It was supposed to be held on April 10, but in a pandemic, the authorities did not want to conduct entirely face-to-face elections and did not have time to amend the electoral law, allowing, in particular, voting by mail. So in April, it was decided simply not to open polling stations. After April 10, the vote was declared invalid and a new election date was set for June 28.

As a result, on Sunday, the Poles lined up in front of the polling stations: you could go inside only in masks and so as not to crowd – one person per four square meters of floor space. Many were able to vote in advance by mail thanks to the amendments to the electoral law that came into force. This opportunity was used by more than half a million voters.

However, if in April the ratings of President Andrzej Duda predicted victory for him almost in the first round, by June the Poles ceased to think that the president and the ruling Law and Justice party were coping so well with the crisis caused by the pandemic.

His position was complicated by the replacement of the main opponent. The main opposition force – the “Civil Coalition” – was originally supposed to be represented by an experienced politician, vice speaker of the lower house of parliament, Malgožata Kidava Blonska. However, after the April vote that did not take place, the mayor of Warsaw, 48-year-old Rafal Tshaskovsky, was nominated instead. In just a couple of months, he was able to almost catch up in the polls of the incumbent president – especially in those where it was proposed to make a choice between the two politicians.

Warsaw Mayor Rafal Tshaskovsky

Фото: Aleksandra Szmigiel, Reuters

Less than a week before the election, Mr. Duda flew to the United States for almost two days, where he held talks with US President Donald Trump. Apparently, his entourage suggested that a meeting with the American leader would bring political dividends to the president. True, contrary to the hopes of Polish politicians, Mr. Trump did not clarify the prospects for the redeployment of American troops from Germany to Poland and did not declare any significant agreements in the field of defense and security, confining himself to general statements. But, apparently, the rapid flight across the Atlantic still brought Mr. Dude extra points. According to polls, about a week before the election, about 41% of voters supported him. As a result, according to exit polls as of Monday morning, almost 43% of voters voted for him, and according to the results of processing 82% of the ballots, his result was already 45.7%.

«The advantage is great. I am very grateful, ”Mr. Duda assured his supporters immediately after the closure of polling stations.

Acting President of Poland Andrzej Duda

Acting President of Poland Andrzej Duda

Фото: Kacper Pempel REFILE – CORRECTING LOCATION, Reuters

Less than 30% of voters supported his rival, but this is a good result, considering that in April his rating was only about 10%. Now it’s important how the candidates who take the next places will behave, for example, independent candidate, journalist and TV presenter Shimon Hololovna (13.3% of the vote) and Krzysztof Bosak (7.4%). If their supporters support the opposition candidate, then President Duda, with his predominantly provincial conservative electorate, traditionally supporting Law and Justice, may lose his post.

“I have no doubt that the voters of Vladislav Kosinyak-Kamysh look at family values ​​as I do,” said President Duda, in turn, speaking about the voters of the candidate from the Polish Peasant Party Vladislav Kosinyak-Kamysh (2.6% votes).

Earlier, the president sharply opposed permission to enter into same-sex marriage, reminding voters: the family is a union of a man and a woman.

His main opponent, in turn, shows much greater tolerance for same-sex unions. The President also hopes for the support of Krzysztof Bosak supporters. And if he manages to once again take the presidency, then the average salary in Poland will rise to € 2 thousand, Mr. Duda is sure. “In Poland, they must finally earn money as in the rich countries of Western Europe,” he said.

“More than 58% of our society wants change,” the mayor of Warsaw commented on the results of the first round of elections. “I will be your candidate, I will be a candidate for change.”

True, in relations with Moscow, even a change in the president of Poland hardly threatens radical changes. On the eve of the election, Andrzej Duda tried to blame his opponent that in 2014, when “Russia attacked Ukraine,” his party “Civic Platform” (now “Civic Coalition”) was in power and could not provide the Poles with a sense of security. To which Mr. Tshaskovsky retorted: there are questions, such as the presence of American troops in Poland and “Russian aggression against Ukraine,” which do not cause disagreements between the government and the opposition, and President Dude should not have used them “for political games.”

.

The IMF downgraded the economic Outlook for Russia :: Economy :: RBC

The IMF also downgraded its forecast on the global economy. The Fund believes that in 2020, the decline will be 4.9%, whereas in April, the organization assumed a decline of only 3%. “Pandemic COVID-19 had a negative impact on the activities [во всем мире] in the first half of 2020 than expected, and recovery is expected to be more gradual than projected before,” reads the IMF report.

According to the organization, in 2021 the world will expect economic growth at 5.4%, but this still will not be enough to restore the economy to pre-crisis levels. According to IMF estimates, in 2021 the world’s GDP will be 6.5% lower than the figures of January 2020 (before the global spread of the virus).

The Ministry of economic development reported a fall in GDP may double-digit pace

The total losses of the world economy in 2020 will be $12.5 trillion, estimated at the IMF. IMF chief economist Gita Gopinath during the presentation of the report said that the lowest point of the fall of the world economy passed in the second quarter, we began the restoration. However, she refused to define it as a V, U or L-shaped, referring to high uncertainty of the forecast. According to her, the possible second wave of the incidence of coronavirus until you find a medical solution to the problem.

Global government debt will rise in 2020 to a record high of 101.5% of world GDP (an increase of 18.7 percentage points over last year), the report of the IMF.

The total volume of announced budgetary support in the world is estimated at $11 trillion, the report said. Half of this amount ($5.4 trillion) are measures to increase expenditure or abandonment of revenue (e.g. due to tax exemptions) — they directly increase fiscal deficits.

Of the countries represented in the IMF report, to avoid the fall of the economy in 2020, only China, follows from the document. The IMF predicted China’s growth at the 1% level. The most significant drop is waiting Italy (12,8%), Spain (12,8%) France (12.5 percent), the UK (10.2 per cent) and Mexico (10.5 percent).

.

AvtoVAZ sales fell three times in April :: Business :: RBC

Sales of new AvtoVAZ cars in April 2020 fell three times, to 10.055 thousand. But this is a “fairly good level of sales” in the face of restrictions due to the coronavirus epidemic, the company’s top manager noted

Photo: Yakov Knyazev / TASS

According to the results of April 2020, AvtoVAZ sold 10.055 thousand new cars, including 659 Niva SUVs, the company said in a statement to RBC. This is three times less than the company sold in March – 32,808 thousand (data from the Association of European Businesses, AEB).

But April is the first full month of sales in self-isolation mode, when car dealerships in many regions were closed due to the coronavirus epidemic, the AvtoVAZ press service said. “In these difficult times, we must develop new distribution channels and ways of communication with customers. At the moment, our dealers are open in every city where it is allowed, with strict observance of all necessary sanitary safety measures, ”said Olivier Morne, Executive Vice President of Sales and Marketing at AvtoVAZ (his words are given in the message). In addition, since April 15, the company first introduced the Lada online car-ordering system.

Analysts predicted a 30% drop in passenger car sales in Russia

Photo: Alexey Danichev / RIA Novosti

“These two factors, in addition to the quality of the current customer offer, the high professionalism and responsiveness of LADA dealers, allowed us to increase the attractiveness of the Lada brand and show a good enough sales level for the current circumstances,” Morne added.

According to AvtoVAZ’s own assessment, Lada has maintained a leading position in terms of market share in the segment of cars and light commercial vehicles. Earlier, the company estimated its share in the Russian market at more than 20%. For the first quarter of 2020, the company sold 79.6 thousand cars – 19.98% of all new cars in Russia (398.518 thousand units). At the same time, the fall compared to the same period in 2019 was only 3%, AEB reported.

.

Unemployment in the USA peaked since the Great Depression :: Economy :: RBC

According to The Washington Post, the US hospitality sector lost about 7.7 million jobs, retail – 2.1 million, production – 1.3 million. In addition, jobs in the health care system fell by about 1.4 million, so as in a crisis, people postpone requests for medical care, except urgent.

About 18 million people who lost their jobs in April reported that their dismissal was temporary, as companies expected the suspension of the economy to be short-lived. Another 2 million claimed that they had finally lost their last job.

US predicts unemployment rate of Great Depression after pandemic

Nevertheless, the unemployment rate recorded in April was not as dramatic as previously predicted. In the middle of the month, The Wall Street Journal wrote that the expected losses would amount to 22 million jobs and the unemployment rate would reach 18%.

During the Great Depression in the USA, the maximum unemployment rate was recorded in 1932 and amounted to 25.5%.

At the end of April, the presidential adviser on economics Kevin Hasset warned that after the coronavirus pandemic is over, unemployment in the country could come close to the times of the Great Depression. He called the current crisis the largest in the US economy.

In order to protect the interests of Americans losing their jobs because of the coronavirus, Trump signed a decree on the suspension of immigration. According to him, this will guarantee that unemployed citizens of the country will be the first in the queue to get work.

World Coronavirus Spread Rate

Cases per day

Source: JHU

World Data i

.

The price of Brent crude oil rose by more than 5% :: Economy :: RBC

The growth was more than 5.7% for Brent crude oil and more than 7.2% for WTI. Oil quotes rise in price after the entry into force of a new OPEC + deal on May 1 to record a reduction in raw material production


BRENT



BR-6.20




$ 25.28


-0.71%


Photo: Andronov Alexey / TASS

Photo: Andronov Alexey / TASS

The cost of the July futures for Brent crude oil rose by 5.79% and reached $ 27.97 per barrel, according to trading data on the ICE exchange in London. The price of WTI American oil with delivery in June added 7.23% and is trading at $ 21.21 (data as of 23:48 Moscow time).

Oil quotes began to grow after the entry into force on May 1 of the new OPEC + deal to reduce daily production by almost 10 million barrels. On the morning of May 1, the price of Brent crude for July delivery rose by more than 2% and exceeded $ 27 per barrel (at maximum Brent futures then cost $ 27.7). The price of the June WTI oil futures on May 1 at the moment exceeded $ 20.3.

In early March, OPEC + member countries were unable to agree to extend the deal. It ceased to operate on April 1, and the oil production limits set in the cartel were thus lifted: now countries themselves could regulate their production of raw materials.

Dvorkovich predicted the price of oil by the end of the year

Pessimism of Russian business reached the level of the crisis year 2015 :: Economy :: RBC

Pessimism in the business environment reached the crisis level of 2015, a Deloitte study showed. The proportion of CFOs expecting a drop in revenue rose to 37%. Most of all, business fears a weakening ruble and a contraction in demand

Photo: Artyom Zhitenev / TASS

The share of Russian business, which expects a decrease in income and profits against the backdrop of the coronavirus pandemic, has reached a record level since the second half of 2015, according to a survey conducted by Deloitte of financial directors of leading companies from key industries. 37% of financial directors predict a decline in their company’s earnings, 40% expect a drop in operating profit, the study says (RBC has it).

For comparison: in the second half of 2019, only 12% of CFOs expected a reduction in the company’s revenues, and 19% expected a decrease in operating profit.

For the eleventh time, Deloitte conducted a regular survey of financial directors of Russian companies, the study was conducted in March and the first half of April through online questionnaires and personal interviews. The final sample included 45 respondents, which were grouped by industry, revenue in 2019 and the number of employees.

Deloitte does not exclude the possibility that in April, when quarantine measures are applied to the regime of unearned days, negative moods of companies could grow stronger than the survey showed.

  • The top 3 risks that had the greatest impact on the business included the weakening of the ruble (80%), a decrease in core income (78%) and a decrease in demand (78%), financial directors say;
  • 70% of companies expect revenue to fall in the next six months; 54% predict that the decline will stretch over the next year and a half.

.