How much will the dollar be at the end of the year after the debt agreement

Without yet knowing the agreement for the restructuring of the debt under foreign law, which was confirmed on August 4, analysts estimated that the Government will try to keep changes in this very sensitive variable for Argentines limited.

Expectations devaluacion REM.JPG

Regarding the REM for June, analysts they lowered their devaluation projections, mainly for the last quarter of the year. While in the previous survey a depreciation of 4.9% was estimated for October and another of 4.2% for November, in the REM for July the expected increase for October is 4.4% and that of November is 2, 8%.

In this way, the nominal interannual variation forecast for 2020 is 44.4%. In parallel, the projection for the end of 2021 showed a value of $ 123.2 per dollar, which would mean an annual increase of 42.6%.

It should be remembered that, currently, the BCRA is regulating the increases in of the wholesale dollar, which on this day it closed at $ 72.77. In the accumulated of May it climbed 2.5%, in June 2.8% and in July 2.6%.

However, it does not stop alarming the fact that in the last month, and so far in August, the monetary authority had to sell close to US $ 600 million to keep the exchange rate at the desired levels.

Analysts argue that The foreign debt swap deal announced by the government this week should mean relief for the exchange rate gap and for the demand for dollars.

To reduce this pressure, the Central also again corrected the minimum interest rate for time deposits in pesos, which is now equivalent to 87% of the Leliqs rate. This measure seeks to provide greater incentives for investments in local currency.


Dietrich: international rail service will open in 2020

The head of the Ministry of Transport, Eugene Dietrich, said that international rail services will open this year. According to him, the issue of resuming communications with Finland is currently being discussed.

“This year,” Mr. Dietrich answered the question of when the international railway service will open (quote from TASS). “We must clearly understand that we comply with safety standards within the country, that this does not entail any negative consequences, that people travel and do it safely, and then release them abroad. ”

On May 25, the head of the Ministry of Transport sent a letter with proposals to Finland. The country’s authorities should study it and give “some kind of creative suggestion,” Mr. Dietrich said.

On June 26, Mr. Dietrich expressed hope that international air traffic would be resumed in July. Recall that in Russia the borders remain closed due to the coronavirus pandemic.

On the support of transport in an epidemic – in the article “Kommersant” “Transport will receive support.”