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Tesla, after the bears the fire of the Dragon: the bubble is likely to burst


If you think you have had a bad day, console yourself: there are those who are worse off than you. It is the case of Elon Musk which continues to swing dangerously between the figure in the teacher of the new economy, dangerous Gianburrasca spoils markets and a man running a tightrope. And that has lost 25% of its assets, today stopped at “only” 144 billion.

The truth is that the South African tycoon is starting to pay the price of a model business a little too aggressive, which is not based either on the sale of products – such as Jeff Bezos O Bernard Arnault – nor on the management of personal data and information – intercom Mark Zuckerberg. After a 2020 in which his wealth has increased disproportionately, making him even become for a few days the richest man in the world, Now Musk is experiencing a moment of fogging. E i there are many reasons.

In the first place, his decision to throw himself headlong into bitcoins it seemed like a great idea to make a quick capital gain. He bought 1.5 billion, quickly found himself with a surplus worth at least 30%. But then he magically noticed (but some really believe the randomness of his statements) that mining cryptocurrencies was enormously polluting. And he decided to stop accepting them to buy Tesla services. Not only that: he then also replied with a laconic “really” to those who claimed that a sort of war between the bitcoiner.

Result: bitcoin has lost 40% of its value and now it is priced at around 32 thousand after having exceeded the threshold of 50 thousand dollars. Elon Musk found himself “poorer” by a good 25% due to tensions over cryptocurrencies. And especially Tesla has lost 250 billion in capitalization since January.

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Let’s be clear: it still remains bigger than any other player dell’automotive. But perhaps some contradictions are starting to emerge. Meanwhile, because the self-drive much vaunted is showing some flaws. The Texas accident costing two people their lives was promptly returned to the sender by Musk who stated that the autopilot was not engaged. But then why should anyone spend over 100 thousand dollars for a vehicle that is not even able to limit the danger of driving?

Waymo, the company of the group Alphabet which is developing autonomous driving systems, has sbertucciato the functions of Tesla. According to Ceo John Krafcik, the brand Musk is in no way a competitor for the simple fact that he is fine-tuning increasingly advanced systems of assisted driving, not autonomous. “For us, Tesla is by no means a competitor,” said Krafcik. We are developing a fully autonomous driving system. Tesla is a car manufacturer that is developing an excellent driver assistance system ”.

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Tesla’s second problem is business sustainability model. It is true, in fact, that the accounts are in profit for almost 500 million, but this does not depend on sales, but on sale of the so-called “green certificate (i.e. emissions credits that are exchanged with other car manufacturers that thus fall within the sustainability parameters) And, above all, give it to you capital gains on bitcoin. So this is not a success, but rather a skilful alchemy of the market (very legitimate, for heaven’s sake) that gave a nice coat of white. But as the companies automotive they will continue to produce ever greener vehicles, what will they do with them green certificate at Tesla?

Just i green certificate are the basis of a “big short” operation by Michael Burry, an unscrupulous trader capable of predicting the mortgage crisis subprime. According to the financier, Tesla’s business is destined not to hold up in the brunt. For this he has “Shorted” 800 thousand shares of the group, for a value of 530 million dollars to date. What is not known, and that stirs the sleeps of Elon Musk, is when the date for the sale has been set. And if by then the title is lost further, Burry will secure a hefty capital gain, while the South African entrepreneur will have to start looking over his shoulder.

Also because in the meantime there is a huge monster that scares Tesla: the Dragon. In fact, in China, the progressive explosion of the middle class convinced the authorities that it was impossible to switch from vehicles powered by traditional energy to get the Chinese moving, otherwise the situation would have been dramatic. And it was therefore chosen to focus very strongly on the electric. There are dozens of player more or less large that are carrying out projects of this type.

(Continued: Tesla’s difficulties in China)

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