The doctor predicted the spread of coronavirus in Russia: what to be afraid of

According to Pavel Vorobyov, we have nothing to fear

According to the WHO report, today in China several (possibly several dozen) new cases of infection with the coronavirus COVID-19 are detected. And only every third infected person has the virus.

“For example, more than 1800 groups of epidemiologists arrived in Wuhan, each with a minimum of 5 people who track tens of thousands of contacts per day. Follow-up is painstaking, with a high percentage of identified close contacts completing the medical observation. In contacts, in 1-5% of cases, laboratory infection with COVID-19 was confirmed, ”Vorobyov writes.

Example: in Shenzhen, out of 2,842 close contacts identified, 2,842 (100%) were found and 2,240 (72%) underwent medical supervision. Among close contacts, 88 (2.8%) were infected with COVID-19. In Sichuan, among 25,493 close contacts identified, 25,347 (99%) were identified and 23,178 (91%) underwent medical supervision. Among close contacts, 0.9% were found infected with COVID-19.

“According to the statistics, only one third of those identified from the number of infected have clinical symptoms. The devil was not so terrible as we were painted. We will never know who invented all this, ”said Pavel Vorobyov to MK.

The new data, of course, will soon change the real percentage of mortality from the new coronavirus, which today is estimated at 2.8%. “At the beginning of any outbreak of a new infection, we actually see only serious patients, those who are hospitalized. At first, no one takes into account those who carry the disease on their feet, for whom it flows without symptoms at all. Therefore, it turns out that the initial mortality is always much higher than real. Then diagnostic systems appear and more and more people with not severe conditions begin to be detected – and mortality is sharply reduced. The total mortality from coronavirus, if you look at the last figures, is much less than with influenza. And the initial numbers can be called “pseudo-lethality.” People with the highest risk of serious illness and death include people over the age of 60 and patients with hypertension, diabetes, cardiovascular disease, chronic respiratory diseases, and cancer, ”says Vorobyov.

As for other countries of the world where outbreaks of coronavirus are noted, the mortality statistics in them vary greatly. For example, in Italy and the USA it is relatively high, and in Germany it is zero. However, one cannot ignore that in the United States the virus initially entered the nursing home, where chronic bedridden patients are kept (several people died at once from COVID-19 in this institution). In Italy, the situation is still not very clear, but Professor Vorobyov says that over the same time, more people infected with other infections there: “We have millions of people with ARVI. According to official statistics, 40 thousand, actually 100 thousand, die from respiratory infections per year. In Italy, deceased patients, as the statistics showed, had serious illnesses: after strokes, with cancer, on hemodialysis. Such people are always at risk for death from any respiratory infection, no matter what. ”

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As for the forecasts for Russia, the expert is sure that our cases will remain single: “According to the WHO report, the virus’s contagiousness (ability to be transmitted) drops sharply. Apparently, this is due to its mutation. There is reason to believe that the virus is not transmitted by airborne droplets. In general, it is transmitted only through prolonged hours of contact — either among relatives or among hospital staff (most Chinese doctors became infected by contact at home!). Therefore, one does not have to expect any major outbreak in Russia. It is very likely that these will be isolated cases. ”

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