In winter estimates, the EU revises Italian GDP downwards in 2022, forecasting + 4.1% when, in the report last November, it configured growth to 4.3%. For 2023 the EU estimates a GDP at + 2.3%. “The short-term forecasts are overshadowed by the prolonged supply disruption and the sharp rise in energy prices. The erosion of purchasing power and the weakening of consumer confidence are expected to dent real growth in the short term. economic activity is expected to gain momentum in the second quarter and continue to expand in the second half of the year, “writes the EU.
The Commission revises inflation expectations upwards due to high energy prices, but also due to the expansion of inflationary pressures on other categories of goods starting from the autumn. Overall, inflation in the euro area, according to Brussels estimates, will reach 3.5% (3.9% in the EU) in 2022 before falling to 1.7% (1.9%). in the EU) in 2023. For Italy, inflation after 1.9% in 2021 is expected to be above the eurozone level and at 3.8% in 2022to then go down to 1.6% in 2023. In autumn, inflation in the eurozone was estimated at 2.4% in 2021, 2.2% in 2022 and 1.4% for 2023 .
The slowdown in growth configured in the autumn was more acute than expected with the intensification of headwinds: in particular the surge in Covid infections, the increase in energy prices and the prolonged interruption of supplies “. reads in the winter economic forecasts. Brussels also explains that “the economic stress caused by the current wave of infections will be short-lived. Supplies will normalize and inflationary pressure will be contained “. But, it is underlined,” uncertainty and risks “for the recovery” remain high, considerably aggravated by geopolitical tensions in Eastern Europe “.
The EU as a whole reached its pre-pandemic GDP level in the third quarter of 2021 and all member states are expected to have passed this milestone by the end of 2022.
Eurozone GDP is expected to grow by 4% in 2022 and 2.7% in 2023, after a jump of 5.3% in 2021. The Commission writes by reducing the previous estimates made in the autumn when a growth of 4.3% for this year and 2.4% for 2023. In the whole EU, the expectation is a growth of 4% in 2022 and 2.8% in 2023, after +5, 3% in 2021. The slowdown in the robust rebound that started in the spring, already predicted, explains the Commission, was more acute due to the wave of Covid-19 infections, energy prices and continuing interruptions on the supply side.
“Inflation has raised its head in the last months of 2021”, compared to previous estimates “energy prices are expected to remain high for a long period and this will create problems for some categories of goods and services “, emphasizes the EU Commissioner for Economic Affairs Paolo Gentiloni presenting the winter economic estimates. “Uncertainty remains at worrying levels”, explains the commissioner, speaking of “balanced risks for the economy”. “The fundamentals remain solid, we expect the EU economy to pick up momentum”, he adds. “The Italian context is that of an economy that tends to resume pre-pandemic growth levels perhaps faster than previously imagined. The positive growth forecasts are linked to the good implementation of the NRP on which the Italian government is fully committed. . We in all our forecasts have considered the influence of national NRPs on investments, as if everything were going in the right direction “.
“Since tourism is so important for a country like Italy, it is very important to invest and do it with the ability to make the most of what are the bathing concessions, so these concessions must be reassigned through tender mechanisms. It does not mean ignoring the work done, the investments made, the social repercussions of reassignment, but at the same time we cannot ignore the fact that we are in a competitive regime and there may be investors who make better use of this assets “. Commissioner Gentiloni underlines this in a press point