Welcome to week 14 of the fantastic football season! If you managed to qualify for the playoffs, congratulations. Otherwise, there are daily leagues to play. If you do not play DFS, well, thanks for the click and have a good day.
Every week, I watch some of the week's best and worst showdowns, informed by the statistics and information we have gathered on Pro Football Focus. Sometimes this will help you make decisions about where to start / sit. Other times, just manage the expectations or choose the DFS options. In either case, this should help for the 14th week.
As always, we start with my shift of the week. And for those who have reached the playoffs, good luck.
Mismatch of the week
Amari Cooper, WR, Dallas Cowboys
I will continue this momentum the rest of the year because "decent receiver facing Philadelphia" is as close to the cheat code that we have in fantasy right now. Even taking three of the four home bases out of the end zone since their nine week break, the Eagles have allocated more than 42 PPR points per game to Dallas, New Orleans and the Giants in weeks 10-12. before holding the incredible Washington offensive under the guidance of Mark Sanchez at just 17.1. Rasul Douglas and Sidney Jones are back in the Eagles, but even then, the defense against the pass below normal is much more common this season. Cooper, who has collected more than 75 yards in three of his last four games, is expected to score four of five games against the group in Week 14.
Aaron Rodgers, QB, Packers from Green Bay
Maybe I'm just a sucker, but there's no reason Rodgers made a performance (relatively) as bad as he did for fantasy a good part of this year. He is still the third passer of PFF (90.4 behind Drew Brees and Patrick Mahomes). He only launched an interception. Yes, his receivers after Davante Adams were disappointing, but he did more with less in previous years. So, until I have evidence to the contrary, I will choose to believe that this is a Mike McCarthy problem. This week with McCarthy and a Atlanta defense that, although better recently, has allowed more than three touchdowns at least seven times this year, including two of the last four games, Rodgers has gone back to ranking.
Dalvin Cook, RB, Minnesota Vikings
My apologies to Kyle Rudolph, who is largely dead for death, but the Vikings' offense basically has three weapons: Adam Thielen, Stefon Diggs and Cook. Well, this week, Diggs is still screwed (he has a history of poor performance on the injury report), while Thielen, who runs mainly out of the slot, draws a Seattle defense that has awarded the least fancy points per game to slot machine recipients this year. Meanwhile, the Seahawks' defense against the race deteriorated during the course of the year (4.14 yards per race and 24.0 fantasy points per game against the halves before the bye, 5.43 and 29.4 since). Cook been inconsistent this seasonbut his highs were very productive.
Zay Jones, WR, Buffalo Bills
Saying that a player leads his team in something is meaningful, but the context helps a lot. For example, Jones leads billers in slot machine routes, and you glean information. But here's more: he has operated 218 slot machine routes and has been targeted 32 times. In second place for the team? The 51 Ray-Ray McCloud routes and the 6 targets of Isaiah McKenzie. Jones leads by a lot. Well, this week, the Bills are attracting the Jets, who have awarded the second highest number of fantasy points per game to slot machine recipients this year. Jones is the # 10 fantasy catcher in his last three active weeks, despite the fact that the Jaguars had completely ruled him out in the 12th week, he set a career record in yards the last time he confronted the Jets. them (with the other game being his career debut).
George Kittle, TE, San Francisco 49ers
The loss of Chris Harris Jr. is a significant loss for the Broncos. He is the 5th place finish in this year's standings with 86.0 points, and has three seasons of more than 90 ratings in his career. Making the bulk of his work outside the slot, Harris was also a unique weapon. The 49ers do not really have a wide slot receiver. Trent Taylor does the most work out there among the wide receivers, but it's hardly relevant. The 49er with the most slot machine targets this year is actually Kittle, who has 144 yards and a touchdown on 26 slot machine targets this year. Only Eric Ebron has more targets in tight ends than Kittle's 20 goals in the last two weeks. Without Harris, the match is much better.
Russell Wilson, QB, Seattle Seahawks
I wrote Tom Brady in this space last week and I write Wilson here this week for the same reason. The Vikings have dominated their opponents since week five, awarding 11.1 fantastic points per game (despite clashes with Brady, Drew Brees, Aaron Rodgers, Mitchell Trubisky, Matthew Stafford … and Josh Rosen and Sam Darnold), a number to be easily the best of the league on a full season. Yes, weeks 1 to 5 are important, but there is currently no warmer defense. Even though Wilson was good, I'm clear.
Gus Edwards, RB, Baltimore Ravens
Edwards has collected 315 yards in the last three weeks (fifth in the league). He crossed twice the 100 yard mark and fifty more door than the No. 2 on crows in this time. This week, he will face a team of Chiefs who has awarded the second highest number of fantasy points per game to the opposing sides. Jalen Richard and Doug Martin both come off productive days. So why is Edwards here at the bottom? Because running the ball is all that it does. During this three-match period, he has a total of zero goals and one goal all season. He scored just once, with Lamar Jackson carrying the ball near the end zone. If you want someone who will give you 7-10 points, of course, Edwards is fine. But it has by far the lowest ceiling of any intensive use, and even that assumes that Kenneth Dixon does not enjoy much of the work.
Tyreek Hill, WR, Kansas City Chiefs
Time Gripe! I complained about my main fantasy team all season, because I lost a lot of games in the last five minutes of Monday's season. On Monday night, I received a message of sympathy from the leagues I never spoke to when the Golden Tate latest wrestling made me lose a point and made me out of playoffs. All I needed to play in the playoffs, in retrospect, was Julio Jones for 30 yards total. But he faced the Ravens. When Jimmy Smith was suspended during weeks 1 to 4, the Ravens gave PPR 35.3 points per game to the receivers – good, but nothing special. Since his return, this number is 25.6, best in the league by more than three points. The leaders' offensive should go well, but I avoid Hill like the plague this week.
Austin Hooper, TE, Atlanta Falcons
Hooper has seen more than 10 targets three times in five games in weeks 5-10. Since then, the numbers have dropped slightly: 7, 5 and 6 targets in three games. It's still good (seventh among the tight ends at that time), but against a Packers team that allowed a touchdown at tight ends all year long, you probably want more amount from Hooper for compensate for the reduced quality it is likely to offer.
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