Covid-19 coronavirus has spread rapidly worldwide and has now been declared a global pandemic by the World Health Organization.
The worst-case scenario projections show that 80% of people in the UK could contract the disease and that one percent of cases could prove fatal, according to the Department of Health and Social Assistance.
Our World in Data, a project at the University of Oxford, analyzed the numbers available in Covid-19 cases worldwide to explain how serious the disease is.
The numbers reveal how age-related mortality rates vary, which underlying health conditions are most worrying, and how Covid-19 compares to other diseases – such as seasonal flu.
The analysis of nearly 56,000 Covid-19 cases worldwide also revealed the most common symptoms of the disease.
OWiD researchers say the disease mortality rate is difficult to define and will differ in different locations and at different stages of the disease’s spread.
In the UK, it is currently claimed that about one percent of cases could prove fatal.
Analysis of the disease in China shows how different the mortality rate is depending on the age of the patient.
Patients who have died so far are said to have underlying or pre-existing medical conditions.
The researchers found out which underlying health conditions seem most likely to make Covid-19 more serious and say that only 0.9 percent of those who died did not have pre-existing serious conditions.
Analyzing data from over 44,000 confirmed cases in China, the data reveal how serious each infection is.
While five percent of Covid-19 cases were critical and 14 percent serious, 81 percent of people who had contracted the disease had only one mild case.
It is also believed that there are a much larger number of people with symptoms so mild that they have not even been diagnosed.
Analysts say their graphs are based on confirmed cases around the world.
They said, “The total number of COVID-19 cases is unknown. We are not known Our world of data, or any other research institute, governmental or reporting.
“There are several reasons why the total number is not known: for some the symptoms are very serious, but for a part of the population the symptoms are mild, which means that they are not aware of being infected with COVID-19; and therefore not everyone who could be infected is seen by a doctor.
“The second reason that confirmed cases are only a fraction of the total number of cases is that not all cases that should be tested are actually tested. Many countries have difficulty testing a large number of cases.”
As the number of confirmed cases increases, the number of deaths is also linked to Covid-19.
Covid-19 death data were also compared with seasonal flu death data in the United States.
New measures to delay the spread of coronavirus in the UK have entered into force as officials address what Boris Johnson has called the “worst-case health crisis of a generation”.
Up to 10,000 people are believed to have already been infected with Covid-19 and, in a stark warning to the public, Mr. Johnson said families will continue to “lose loved ones ahead of time” as the outbreak worsens.
Among the high profile people diagnosed with the disease are Arsenal head coach Mikel Arteta, Chelsea winger Callum Hudson-Odoi and BT chief Philip Jansen, while the situation has been branded as a “national emergency “from former health secretary Jeremy Hunt.
The government’s latest approach has introduced measures to try to protect the elderly and those most vulnerable to the disease, with Johnson warning that precautions will cause serious inconvenience across the country “for many months.”
According to the latest advice from the United Kingdom government, anyone with symptoms of coronavirus, however mild, such as a continuous cough or high fever, must now remain at home for seven days.
The advice also applies to children, which means that parents may need to take some free time to take care of their children at home.
The Prime Minister said that school trips abroad should be interrupted, while people over 70 with serious medical conditions should not go on a cruise.
Johnson told reporters at a Downing Street press conference that it was not necessary to close schools now since the scientific advice “is that this could do more harm than good.”
He said this could change at some point in the future, if someone gets sick, the whole family could be told to isolate themselves.
That measure has not yet been notified, the Prime Minister said, but added: “I want to report now that this is going down.”
Johnson said families will continue to “lose loved ones ahead of time” as the coronavirus epidemic worsens.
“We must all be clear, this is the worst public health crisis of a generation,” said the Prime Minister.
“Some people compare it to seasonal flu, which is unfortunately not fair.
“Due to the lack of immunity this disease is more dangerous.
“It will spread further and I must level with you, I must level with the British public: many more families will lose their loved ones before their time.”
Stressing the need to protect others, Johnson said: “If you have mild coronavirus symptoms, a new continuous cough or high temperature, you should stay home for at least seven days to protect others and help slow the spread of the illness.”
He also said that the government “is considering the issue of banning major public events such as sports matches.”
Although science has shown that it would have limited impact, these devices have weighed on public services.
Sir Patrick Vallance, the government’s chief scientific adviser, said that the actual number of infected people in the UK could currently be between 5,000 and 10,000.
“We are currently on a trajectory that appears to be around four weeks behind Italy and some other countries in Europe,” he said, adding that over 20 people in the UK with the virus were in intensive care units.
The medical director for England, Professor Chris Whitty, said, in agreement with counterparts in Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland, the coronavirus risk assessment was high.
Explaining the board to self-isolate for seven days, Prof Whitty acknowledged that it was “something that will interfere with their lives and interfere with their work and social life in quite significant ways.”
But he said it “helps protect older and more vulnerable people” and would reduce, and possibly delay, the peak of the epidemic, making it easier to cope with the NHS.
The Prime Minister added: “It is not possible to escape the reality that these measures will cause serious inconvenience in our country for many months.
“The best scientific advice is that this will help us slow down disease and save lives.”
In a message to the elderly, Johnson said that although the disease was “particularly dangerous” for them, the vast majority would experience “mild to moderate disease”.
But he said the most dangerous period is in a few weeks, while Prof Whitty said older people would be told to stay at home in the future, even if not yet.
Professor Whitty said that the National Health Service will change its approach to coronavirus tests, with only those in hospitals to be formally examined.
“It is no longer necessary for us to identify each case and we will move from running tests primarily at home, outpatient and access centers, to a situation where people who stay at home don’t need testing,” he said.
Sir Patrick Vallance said the modeling predicted a 20-25% reduction in the peak of the epidemic causing people to stay home for a week if they experience mild symptoms.
Switching to isolation for the whole family adds an additional 25% reduction, while preventing the infection of the elderly could reduce mortality rates by 20-30%.