"In the coming years, France will have to choose between massively opening places in the Ehpad and changing the sharing of care between home and establishment. " The report is drawn up by INSEE, in a study published Thursday, July 25.
The National Statistical Institute is projecting a forecast of the aging of the population by 2050, predicting that 4 million seniors will be losing their autonomy, compared with 2.5 million today. Where and how will they be supported?
24 million over 60 in 2050
According to INSEE definitions, an individual is considered to be "In loss of autonomy" when he may need help getting around, getting dressed, doing his toilet, or more widely is forced to hold the bed or chair.
What the dependency report to the government proposes
INSEE forecasts that France will have 24 million seniors, aged 60 or over, in 2050. Among them, 16.4% will be in loss of autonomy, 1% more than in 2015. An increase that seems minimal but which actually translates a very strong increase in the number of places in Ehpad needed in the coming years.
"This increase would be due to the arrival of baby boomers in old age", emphasize the authors. Who notice that"The number of permanent residences in seniors' homes should increase by 20% by 2030 and by more than 50% by 2050".
Need 900 000 places
"The number of people permanently housed in institutions, which is around 600,000 in 2015, would increase by 0.8% per year on average until 2021, then between 1.5% and 2% per year. from 2023 to 2040, and will rise to 900,000 in 2045, an increase of more than 50% between 2015 and 2045. "
How to find 9 billion euros to finance the dependency
In March 2019, a report submitted to Agnès Buzyn estimated the public resources needed to manage dependency to 6.2 billion in 2024 before rising to 9.2 billion in 2030. Among the funding options, it proposed in particular a decrease of the rest in Ehpad and a compensated leave for carers. The report also proposed an "autonomy shield" for highly dependent residents living in Ehpad for more than four years, amounting to € 740 per month.