Home » World » The next phase of the war will be critical for Russia and Ukraine, the US said

The next phase of the war will be critical for Russia and Ukraine, the US said


WASHINGTON – Biden administration officials say they believe so next four weeks will form the final result of Russia’s war in the Ukraine, and sustainable branching which will influence the design of the map of Europe in the coming decades.

While officials still expect the war to be long and tedious, they say it is imperative to send Ukraine as many new weapons as possible, especially long-range artillery and anti-aircraft gun, to repel Russia’s new advance in eastern Donbas. the region.

Ukrainian soldiers prepared to tow an intact but immobilized Russian armored vehicle in Nova Basan, Ukraine (Ivor Prickett / The New York Times).

Reflect the sense of renewed urgency, President Joe Biden announced Thursday that the United States would send Ukraine another $ 800 million in military aid, the second such package in just over a week.

Biden said the latest aid package was sent clear message“For the president Vladimir Putin in Russia:

“He will never manage to dominate and occupy all of Ukraine.”

Speaking at the White House, Biden said that while the United States will announce many details of the weapons it will send to Ukraine, some of the weapons will be kept secret.

The President borrowed and modified a famous phrase from Theodore Rooseveltsaying that the United States “would speak softly and bring a great deal javelin“, a reference to anti-tank weapons (javelins) that the Ukrainians used effectively against Russian weapons.

Determined to act quickly, Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austinand it is generousl Mark MilleyJoint Chiefs of Staff, spoke with allies around the world this week and characterized the coming month as fundamental.

If Russia can make progress in the east, Putin will be better positioned at home to sell his so-called special military operation as a limited success and claim that he has secured the protection of Ukraine’s pro-Russian minority, U.S. officials have said. of.

Then I could get one Stop the fire, but he was encouraged to use Donbas as the lever in any negotiations, they said.

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Officials spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss operations.

And if the Ukrainian military can stop Russia’s advance in the Donbas, officials say Putin will face difficult choice:

commit more combat power in a battle that can drag on for years or seriously negotiate in peace talks.

The first option could be total national mobilization, officials say, and it is politically risky for the Russian leader.

The next phase of the war “will be very important,” said Peter Maurer, chairman of the International Committee of the Red Cross, who visited Ukraine in March.

“The escalation of hostilities in Donbass and all areas affected by the armed conflict is a matter of great concern.”

At the Pentagon this week, Austin and Milley made frequent calls and meetings with allies to focus on one issue:

gun.

Austin spoke with his counterpart Romania on Monday and with the Spanish defense minister on Tuesday.

On Wednesday he met with the Polish Minister of Defense and on Thursday he met with his Czech counterpart.

With all four, the discussions were the same, officials said:

how to send weapons more powerful in Ukraine in the coming weeks.

After several weeks of focusing on anti-tank and anti-aircraft weapons such as Javelins and Stinguers, last week’s new shipments included long-range artillery, tactical vehicles and mobile radar systems to help Ukrainians detect and destroy Russian artillery positions.

Other countries are sending tanks, more weapons and antique missile

Milley’s phone diary this week looks like a list of countries with artillery and heavy weapons:

Australia, Britain, Canada, Denmark, France, Germany, Greece, Italy, the Netherlands, Norway, Portugal, Sweden and Turkey.

A senior Department of Defense official described the coming month as a inflection point critical for Russia and Ukraine. This phase of the battle apparently favors Russia to some extent, as Russian troops move into more open terrain rather than being blocked in cities.

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But the official said the Pentagon believed that and there proper weapon with high morale and motivation, the Ukrainian forces could not only stop the Russian advance, but also do it back.

Evelyn N. Farkas, the Pentagon’s top political official for Russia and Ukraine during the Obama administration, when Russia annexed the peninsula from Crimea, said: and new recruits.

“Therefore, it is important to attack them now and all we can give the Ukrainians.”

Current and former US military commanders experienced in Ukraine and Europe agreed.

“It is crucial for Ukraine in this regard They must win Push Russia to seize all the Donbas, ”Maj. Gen. Michael S. Repass, a former retired commander of the U.S. Special Forces in Europe involved in defense matters, wrote in an email from Ukraine since 2016.

If Putin succeeds in seizing the East and establishing a ground runners towards Crimea, Repass said Moscow would have a position stronger in any negotiated agreement.

“In another month, I anticipate fatigue on both sides without a military decision / outcome in any way,” Repass wrote.

“A stalemate means that Putin has won, and if Putin ‘wins,’ we are on a rough ride.”

To try to prevent this result, the current and former US commanders say that the Ukrainian military will try to disrupt. military construction in Russia around the eastern city of Izyum and other important areas with long-term artillery and armed drone attacks.

“It is also about disturbing the Russians while they are still in the mode of reconstitution and preparation, before they can really get back on their feet,” said Lt. Gen. Frederick B. Hodges, a former U.S. Army commander in Europe. which is now with the Center for European Policy Analysis.

Even as Moscow reduces its goals and consolidates its army in southern and eastern Ukraine, the outcome of the war remains clear at best, military analysts said.

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In fact, the underlying weakness of the Russian forces, which was exposed in the first week of the conflict, not necessarily disappearthey say.

For example, thousands of Russian reinforcements arriving in Ukraine, including mercenaries, conscripts and troops from far eastern Russia and Georgia, they have not yet trained togetheranalysts said.

The battered units removed from northern Ukraine will also need time to regroup.

Some will be supplied and sent back into battle.

But others are so damaged that the remaining pieces will piece together into a new unit, analysts said.

Rob Lee, a Russian military specialist at the Institute for Foreign Policy Research in Philadelphia and a former U.S. Navy officer, said:

“Once this offensive begins in earnest, Russia will face further losses,” Lee said.

“At some point, there wear will be too much and will limit the Russian military’s ability to conduct offensive operations effectively. “

As Russian forces push into the Donbas, they will extend their supply lines and may face the same logistical shortcomings that have plagued them before, officials said.

“We’ll see in the next few weeks how much they’ve learned and how much they’ve fixed,” Hodges said.

Even if Russian forces dominate in the next month, the spectrum of this army will advance into western Ukraine or beyond Ukraine’s borders, a real fear at the start of the war, now seems too far away, several officials said.

Michael Kofman, director of Russian studies at CNA, a research institute in Arlington, Virginia, said: “Winning, losing or drawing, the Russian military is likely to become a depleted force after this next phase.

“Russia should be tough to keep any campaign beyond the Donbas.”

But former Defense Department officials warned that for Putin, all of Ukraine, not just Donbas, was still the final price.

Emily Cochrane and Catie Edmondson contributed to the report.

c.2022 New York Times Company

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