“The RT goes down but the infections go up? It is normal, we are not yet below the threshold of 1, therefore the cases will continue to be many even in November. Deaths, on the other hand, Today I am 699: this is a problem linked to the spread of the virus in October. In fact, I fear that we will still have such high values for at least another week. The positive aspect is that we are starting to see the effects of the anti-Coronavirus and the signs are good. We managed to lower the exponential part of the curve, we must continue on this path ». These are the words of Fabrizio Pregliasco, epidemiologist and medical director of the Galeazzi institute in Milan.
“The goal is to drop below 30 thousand cases a day”
Even if we begin to glimpse a light at the end of the tunnel, the number of infections is still high and could be underestimated for Pregliasco: “Today I am 37.242. I don’t think we’ll get to 40 thousand but hopefully in the next 10 days to go below altitude 30 thousand. It is clearly a hope. Of course, it is also true that, by losing the tracking capacity, we should increase the number of buffers, which today are 238 thousand. In fact, we risk having an underestimation of real cases. They could be at least one and a half or two times more than the 37 thousand of today”.
A sober Christmas
“We must not take advantage of all the freedoms that will be granted to us (in view of the next Dpcm, ed). For Christmas it will be necessary to be very careful about repatriation, travel, shopping. The “catch” is precisely that of family reunions since the 70% some cases happen in the family », explained Pregliasco a Open.
Vaccines and the third wave
«Per i vaccinesinstead, it will be necessary to wait another year, only at that moment will there be coverage of the 60-70% (first, in fact, the most at-risk and weakest groups will be vaccinated, from the elderly to health workers, ed). A harsh winter awaits us at the moment and it cannot be ruled out a third wave. Everything will depend on us, ”he added. In recent weeks in various areas, such as Lombardy, “the streets are still full and it is objectively difficult to even control them. Therefore, we cannot let our guard down: we need common sense », he concluded.
Graphics by Vincenzo Monaco