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The risk of relaxing confinement too soon




Researchers of the University of Hong Kong they base their conclusions on data from the spread of the new coronavirus in mainland China.

Their data indicates that drastic control measures which were taken in China they appear to have slowed the first wave of the pandemic in areas outside the Hubei region, the epicenter of the disease.

Even so, “surveillance of the transmission of COVID-19 and its severity is necessary to protect yourself from a second wave of infections», Stresses the study.

The work suggests that in regions outside of Hubei, the epicenter of the pandemic, the rate of reproduction of the coronavirus fell substantially. after the confinement decreed on January 23 and it has been kept below the limit of a new infected for each sick individual.

The coronavirus reproduction ratio fell substantially after the confinement decreed on January 23 and has remained below the limit of one new infected for each sick individual.

The mathematical model they are working with, however, indicates that relaxing the measurements too soon would take to exceed that limit again, which would speed up contagion.

“While these control measures appear to have reduced the number of infections to very low levels, no group immunity against COVID-19, cases may pick up as companies, industries and schools gradually resume their activity, “says Joseph T Wu, of the University of Hong Kong

“Although control policies, such as social distance and behavioral changes, are likely to remain for some time, the best strategy seems to be to search for activates a balance between the reactivation of economic activities and keep the reproduction ratio below one », he adds.

That “balance” of measures should be maintained “until an effective vaccine is generally available,” according to the researcher.

A balance should be struck between reviving economic activities and keeping the reproduction ratio below one.

The figures handled by this group of scientists suggest that the death rate from COVID-19 has so far been substantially higher in the province of Hubei (5.91%) than in the rest of China (0.98%).

The researchers point out that there is a correlation between mortality ratio, GDP per capita and available hospital beds in a region, and suggest that the differences recorded in China may be due to the different degrees of preparedness of the health system.


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