The 2018 elections are in the books and the 2020 election campaign is starting very soon. With dozens of interested democrats, some said they would make a decision by the end of the year. It's in a few weeks.
What did the 2018 elections mean for 2020? It's hard to say. If the Democrats had been more successful – with fewer casualties in the Senate – the verdict would have been to stay the course and perhaps pick a more traditional candidate. These unnecessary losses, however, are likely to leave uncertainty about the party's specific needs in 2020. If Democrats are still struggling to win Florida, even in a good environment, for example, this may be a cause for concern .
So who opens the way? Like every few months, here is my last list of the 15 best candidates.
Apart from previous list: Eric Holder, Oprah Winfrey, Mitch Murphy, Mitch Landrieu, Andrew M. Cuomo
Honorable Mentions: Steve Bullock, Jason Kander, Pete Buttigieg, Eric Garcetti, Julian Castro, Tim Ryan, Tom Steyer, John Hickenlooper, Jeff Merkley, Seth Moulton, Martin O Malley, Eric Swalwell, Jay Inslee, Howard Schultz
15. Representative John Delaney (Md.): Points here to get in early. Maryland's outgoing congressional and presidential member is a declared candidate and has been hitting hard for months in Iowa (by adopting the Chris Dodd / Rick Santorum model). He presents himself as a pro-corporate neo-democrat, which seems anathema to the current party. But if there are a ton of candidates, getting a respectable result in Iowa will not require a huge number of votes.
14. Michael Avenatti: I know what you think and I do not blame you. Four months ago, I would have judged myself to put Avenatti on this list – difficult. I also do not think he did himself a favor because of his role in Brett M. Kavanaugh's confirmation process. But the Democrats are beginning to indulge in his impetuous style, and some, like Hillary Clinton and Eric Holder, have even recently adopted a version. Last month, in the former Attorney General Holder, "we kick them", a few months after Avenatti said: "When they go down, we hit harder". And if the Democrats make a flier like the Republicans did in 2016, who knows?
13. Deval Patrick, former governor of Massachusetts: Patrick admitted a few months ago that he was not sure of being awarded a place in the 2020 race. I still think it would be great if he ran, especially considering the enthusiasm of some types of Obama.
12. Hillary Clinton: In an interview a few weeks ago, Clinton began to say how much she felt qualified to be our next president. Perhaps it was nostalgia more than any other sign of true intention – and she also answered "No, no" to the question of whether she wished to represent herself. But it is hard not to believe that she had not at least sowed doubt and sent the message to other potential candidates that she reserved her right – even if it was unlikely – to intervene.
11. Senator Amy Klobuchar (Minnesota): The 24-point victory won by the Minnesota Senator on Tuesday was never in doubt, but she was adamant. It has achieved particularly well in rural areas along the Iron Channel and in southern Minnesota that Democrats have struggled to hold in Trump's time. If Democrats want a pragmatic and intelligent choice, it defends it. This is not the liberal firebrand that some want.
10. Terry McAuliffe, former governor of VirginiaMcAuliffe assured us that he was going to Iowa in September to help bail out the Democrats. But he also wanted to do it in New Hampshire in October.
9. Michael Bloomberg, former Mayor of New YorkBloomberg has poured a huge amount of money into the 2018 Democratic elections – $ 110 million, all things considered, according to his team. But after so many head simulations about the candidacy for the presidency, does he really do it this time? The fact that the former Republican and Independent has recently registered as a Democrat – after not bothering to do it in recent years – might seem like a possible clue.
8. Representative Beto O'Rourke (Tex.): He lost to Senator Ted Cruz (R-Tex.). It did not work. The $ 70 million that he collected could not defeat the quarter century of Texas without the election of a Democratic state. But this was close – only a gap of three points. If you had suggested this at the beginning of the race, I would have said it was very impressive. He would have been higher on this list if he had won, but he won a ticket to be part of a Democratic party that badly needs young stars.
7. Senator Sherrod Brown (Ohio): No one who ran for re-election on Tuesday has also looked at the next campaign than Brown. In a brief victory speech, he declared that he had won the victory even as Trump had raised Ohio by 10 points in 2016. "That's the message that emanates from the US. Ohio in 2018 and the project of our country in 2020, "he concluded. It's remarkable from a guy who said before that he did not actively plan to run. Maybe re-election should be the priority.
6. Senator Kirsten Gillibrand (N.Y.): Gillibrand said at a debate for her candidacy for re-election (uncompetitive) that she would serve her six-year term if she won the victory. But then, she seemed to reopen the door to a race just two days after the election on "The Late Show with Stephen Colbert".
5. Senator Cory Booker (N.J.): Booker can be extremely impressive; it can also be on the top. And his performances at Kavanaugh audiences have been directed towards them. Tip: This is not a moment "I am Spartacus" if you have to call it a "Spartacus moment". Do not focus too much on a moment, but it was an important and unforgettable moment.
4. Former Vice President Joe BidenA recent CNN poll has made Mr Biden the big favorite of the Democratic nomination: 33 to 13% for Bernie Sanders, which is a little surprising. Many Democrats voted for Sanders in 2016, after all. I am not convinced that Biden intervenes and his record as a presidential candidate is not good. But the table is set.
3. Senator Kamala D. Harris (California): Perhaps no one on this list has the potential of Harris – if it puts all this in place – and that this potential has a lot of value in what is almost certainly an overcrowded area.
2. Senator Bernie Sanders (Vt.): Sanders led a somewhat sleepy re-election race (which was all that was needed), and I do not think he could assert himself as a national leader of Democrats – a bit like he I tried it during this tour with DNC president, Tom Perez. Maybe he recognizes that he does not need all this and can just turn his base around when he starts running again. We will see.
1. Senator Elizabeth Warren (Mass.): No, Warren's disclosure of a DNA report of very slight Native American ancestries did not go off well. But as a sign of his intention to run, it was as strong as anything. I've often thought that if she ran, she would probably be the favorite. She needed to do it and she was trying.