Thursday, 15 Nov 2018

The trailer: Trump respects his campaign calendar

In this edition: Campaigns do not break for tragedy this year, Democrats plan to win the "trifectas" of states and Republicans get polls they enjoy.

I am not in the mood to laugh today. This is the trailer.

The most important political statement made by President Trump on Saturday was not his response to the massacre of 11 people at Pittsburgh's Tree of Life Synagogue. It's there that he succeeded: on the tarmac outside Air Force One, before heading to previously scheduled speeches in Indiana and the United States. ;Illinois.

All presidents do not follow a campaign schedule after a major tragedy. Barack Obama's campaigns have canceled or reduced several appearances as a result of mass shootings. Hillary Clinton, who did not visit Wisconsin between the primary and the 2016 general elections, was due to campaign with Obama in June 2016. The mass shootings at Orlando Pulse's nightclub canceled the plans.

If there were rules about how presidents reacted to horrific events, they would not have survived until October 2018. In a year, the filming of Tree of Life could have put a pause campaign; Just a year ago, Democrats urged candidates not to react immediately with political judgments on mass shootings.

Now, there are two conversations going on – one that reflects what is happening across the country and the other that does not. As we see on television on Sunday, this is not the case: do both sides have the means to mitigate the political discourse? The relevant conversation currently taking place in the campaigns is how to move forward. The president does not recall his apocalyptic rhetoric about what would happen if the Republicans lost next month, so how to move the votes around him?

The Democratic response so far has been to deplore the state of our policy but she hinted that the President had to settle it. "We can decide whether or not to create an America in which old hatreds are rekindled and new lives," said Representative Adam B. Schiff (D-Calif.) In a statement representing the remarks made by the Democrats. "Nobody sets the tone any more than the president of the United States."

Democrats want voters to question whether the president risks further violence by telling people worried about existential threats against the country that they are right. They want this seed to be planted as the White House prepares for a speech on Tuesday's immigration policy. When voters think about the caravan, the Democrats want their next thought to be: is there a reason to worry about it or is it about politics?

Republicans want voters to question whether the Democratic Party has led us to this point and shirks responsibilities. It's really frustrating to see that the man who organized the Republican baseball last year before the congressional match is not seen as a product of the angry left when the Pittsburgh shooter and the Florida bomber are quickly associated with the right.

The message of "jobs, not crowds" last week aimed to catalyze this frustration, encouraging voters to see the Democrats' calls for civil disobedience and the confrontation of Republican leaders as a first step toward destructive violence. On Sunday, the chairman of the Republican National Congress Committee, Steve Stivers, hinted that the media allowed for a double standard by bringing Republicans to the fringe and Democrats apart.

"The Democratic Congress campaign committee continues to support Leslie Cockburn and Scott Wallace, who have said sectarian and anti-Semitic things," Stivers said on NBC's "Meet the Press."

Cockburn wrote a critical book about Israel and was adopted by some right-wing activists. Wallace has donated to organizations that support the boycott of Israel as part of its current settlement policy. Neither has been accused of making antisemitic statements up to now. But the result of this segment was that the Republicans would not give in to the Democrats' portrait as dangerous to embrace the "resistance".

Nobody knows how it will work and the confusion begins with the president. It is generally accepted among the Republicans that the President closed the 2016 elections firmly, remaining true to the message and returning the negative remarks to Hillary Clinton. The president's approval rating has increased since the end of the summer, bolstering Republicans' hopes of holding and winning in places he won in 2016.

Since Thursday, the president has remained on the message. A bomb threat in several states and a mass shooting shook the Americans; the president continued to campaign and criticize some of the Democrats targeted by the bomb threat. On Sunday afternoon, the president was still planning to hold rallies in the rotating states next week; In contrast, the governor of Pennsylvania, Tom Wolf (D), had temporarily suspended his campaign.

The only clue as to how Trump's party expects this to happen is that House Majority Leader Kevin McCarthy removed a tweet that was attacking George Soros.


GOLDEN, Colorado – In the run for governorship, both candidates have the same premise: if Democratic Rep. Jared Polis wins, Colorado could become a Liberal political lab, legislating on health and safety issues. education, doing all that the Trump administration would have.

For Democrats, it's a promise. If Polis prevails and the party has a seat in the Senate, he will control both chambers of the legislature and the governor's palace. Polis promised an expansive liberal program, including waiving a university loan, free pre-school education and a free day-care center.

"If the Democrats win the legislature, we have a good chance of achieving our program," Polis said in the latest televised televised debate this week.

For Republicans, it's a threat. The state treasury campaign, Walker Stapleton, warns that a Polis administration would turn that state into California. Stapleton's most-frequently-televised commercial warns against the tax and budget implications of Medicare for all, and closes a dustbin lid to show what he thinks about the Polis plan.

"He is the most radical and extreme candidate in the history of Colorado, and that's why we have an opportunity to win," Stapleton said at a rally held this week in the suburbs of Denver. "We must unravel the silent majority of Colorado's to save our state from unprecedented economic damage that it would do to our state."

Colorado is one of six states in which the Democratic Party could win a ruling "trifecta" by taking (or maintaining) the governor's mansion and overturning a handful of legislative seats to control both houses of the legislature. The others are Illinois, Maine, Nevada, New Mexico and New York.

This seems important not only because of its impact on policies, but also because of the decennial redistribution done after the census. Winning at least one branch of government in the alternative states – governor, senate, general assembly – would give the party the power to negotiate when drawing the next congressional cards. The Democrats believe that victories in Florida, Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, where they lead directly or indirectly in the race for the governorship, would reorganize the cards and put a dozen seats on the line until In the year 2030.

It is in the "trifecta" states that liberal legislation would be the easiest. A year ago, Democrats gained full control of the government in New Jersey and Washington. What followed was the abundance of Liberal bills increasing the taxes of the rich, expanding voter registration and giving more rights to undocumented immigrants.

Some of these issues are at stake in this year's rocking states, and Republicans are hoping to use it to tip these elections. In New Mexico, where representative Michelle Lujan Grisham (D) is leading the public polls, representative Steve Pearce (D) has attacked it by calling it an unethical liberal that, like the New Jersey governor Phil Murphy would use his office to resurrect Liberal bills. that the GOP had blocked over the eight-year term of the Republican government Susana Martinez.

"We are running to prevent this," said Pearce in an interview, while he was shaking hands with bikers at a Harley Davidson dealership. "Even many Democrats see that all the tax increases to which Governor Martinez vetoed would come back and be signed."

Lujan Grisham's response, like Murphy's, is to portray New Mexico as a state curbed by Republicans' reluctance to fund the government entirely. If it is set up with majorities Democrats, it has a program ready to be implemented: financing of rural hospitals, infrastructure. His first 60 days would be spent passing these stuck bills as long as they are "still relevant" and do not "break the bank." She also said that she would follow the Colorado pattern and look for a way to legalize marijuana for recreational purposes. .

In Colorado, Polis, who was a wealthy founder before coming to the House 10 years ago, is leading the polls. He invested more than $ 20 million of his own money in a coordinated, ballot-style campaign, inspired by the one that allowed the state to obtain the state in 2016 for Hillary Clinton. The Republican candidate Stapleton and the Republican Governors Association responded with a campaign that described him as a dangerous left winger who would implement Canadian-style health care.

"He is the most radical and extreme candidate in the history of Colorado, and that's why we have an opportunity to win," Stapleton said at a rally held this week in the suburbs of Denver. "We must unravel the silent majority of Colorado's to save our state from unprecedented economic damage that it would do to our state."

Although he hinted that Colorado was ready for a left turn, Polis also moderated his speech. On Wednesday, before rallying Senator Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.), Polis declined to say whether a win in Colorado would be a victory for the cause of Medicare for all.

"We aim to save money on Colorado family health bills and extend coverage," Polis said. "I will support any right-wing or left-wing ideas that reduce costs and expand coverage."

Tammy Story, an educator and democrat looking for a seat that could tip the state Senate, was just as cautious. When asked what she thought of Polis's previous idea of ​​a Universal Universal Health Care Pact, Story suggested that the Legislature begin with what was realistic. "We need to determine how health care is affordable and accessible."

Hillary Clinton won 8.6 points in the neighborhood in the shade of North Table Mountain in the far-western suburb of Denver. Since 2016, for the first time, registered Democrats have started to outnumber registered Republicans. Through Polis' deep pockets and an online fundraising campaign, Story, a public education advocate, had the resources to carry out a serious campaign against Conservative Senator Tim Neville.

"People were in conflict in 2016, of course," Story said after a march out of the vote this week. "There is just more enthusiasm for the Democrats."


That was inevitable and that's what happened: several states exceeded their 2014 advance vote totals, with one week before the end of the early voting period.

Up to now, seven states have registered more advance votes than four years ago: Delaware, Georgia, Indiana, Minnesota, Nevada, Tennessee and Texas. Outside of Nevada, where registered Democrats have clearly taken the lead in advance voting, there is no obvious partisan advantage. In Harrison County, whose red color is reliable, in Texas, for example, 8,619 voters voted before the weekend; During the 2014 elections, only 14,660 votes were cast in this county. But at the same time, the El Paso County of Beto Democrat O 'Rourke has collected more than 82,000 votes. In 2014, he received only 80,408 votes in total.

On the left, turnout holds less attention than rumors and news of a possible vote abolition. First, there was the story of some Texas voting machines that seemed to rock the "single ticket" selection, turning the votes for Rourke into votes for Republican Senator Ted Cruz. The state has largely denied this. the problem, he said, was with the "ticket right" button leaving some races untouched, a glitch that could affect voters in both parties – and the kind of problem you'd usually want to resolve before an election.

Meanwhile, as he has done in every election since 2004, journalist Greg Palast plunges into competitive states and warns that the purges of the voters lists will leave tens of thousands of voters, or more, outside the ballot. All journalists registered on the electoral lists do not agree with Palast. But the relatively recent electoral standard of "using or losing", which may deprive voters if they do not participate in elections, has become a source of panic in Georgia, where Democrats are publicly afraid of legitimate voters introduce themselves and learn that they ask for provisional votes.


Governor of California. Polls have never put Republican candidate John Cox away from Gavin Newsom, but the Cox campaign shows how to run a quality of life campaign in times of economic prosperity. "The prices of gas and food are exorbitant," says a frustrated actress at this location. "L & # 39; homelessness. Gavin Newsom: It came under your supervision. California's unemployment rate is 3.9%, the same as the national average, but Democrats have vulnerabilities on issues such as the cost of living and housing, and they remember setting up a national 2020 campaign.

Michigan Senate. Republicans are longing for John James to become a star of choice, preferably in the next nine days. What confuses the Democrats is that despite a last quarter of solid fundraising, James has barely begun sending messages for general elections; his new 60-second commercial is the kind of argument for black voters that is usually left to Fox News or CPAC. "Joe Biden said that he believed Republicans did not want blacks to vote," James said before calling the Democrats "a party without God that represents neither our values ​​nor our best economic interests." Watch out: Do national Republicans believe? the polls that showed James only six to seven points and paid money for a tighter message.

Minnesota 01. Each Republican closing announcement in this district, which Trump won by 15 points, was culture-based. It makes sense that the first advertisement targeted on the history of the caravan comes here, with the filming of the Mexican Fund for Leadership Training, as a narrator warning that "the caravan is full of gang members and criminals. "

Pennsylvania 01. This pre-shoot video for YouTube quickly indicates that the Republican president has locked up an unusual amount of manpower: "Brian Fitzpatrick receives so many bipartite referrals, so can not stand in six seconds!"

Governor of South Dakota. The mystery of how the Democrats made this race competitive is solved in this place, which describes how "Republican candidate Kristi Noem, Washington's politician," channeled money from the United States. outside the state in his campaign, even though the South Dakotans voted to make it illegal. . The "voted" part of this sentence is important – voters strongly supported an "anti-corruption" vote in 2016, but Pierre's Republican majority canceled it only a few months later, a story that voters Democrats want voters to remember.

Virginia Senate. The Republicans have canceled this race, but Corey Stewart is closing with the kind of full cultural war message you see in the states and districts of a deep red. Stewart says that the current Democratic Party has abandoned its roots: "They are dishonoring our flag and our veterans. They want to open the border and abolish ICE. One of Democrat Tim Kaine's sons was arrested after a protest in 2017, but local Republican efforts to portray Kaine himself as an extremist were branded nil.

Virginia 02. The campaign against Democratic challenger Elaine Luria has been less focused on her and more on the threat of a Democratic majority. This NRCC spot shows what appears to be an excerpt from Politico: "Pelosi says amnesty for illegal immigrants and gun control," an apparent reference to what she would do if she became president again. Bedroom. In the article in question, Pelosi reportedly stated that she would work with Republicans on a bill relating to the verification of firearms history and the protection of so-called "dreamers" . "This tactic, describing Democrats as an" amnesty "if they favor the Dream Act, takes shape in a number of races, even when the outgoing president, like Representative Scott Taylor (R-Va.), Supports the Dream Act.


Generic ballot (NPR / Marist, 738 registered voters)
Democrats – 50%
Republicans – 40%

At present, a national sample of registered voters does not tell us much about the electorate. This tells us something about this poll, which three weeks ago, reset the national speech, suggesting that Republican enthusiasm had been stoked by the Supreme Court battle, thus altering the potential composition of the Supreme Court. ;electorate. Since then, the democratic advantage has increased from six to ten points.

Senate of Indiana (CBS News, 975 potential voters)
Mike Braun (R) – 46%
Joe Donnelly (D) – 43%

Republicans touted internal polls to suggest that Braun had finally had an escape in the weeks following the Supreme Court's fight. This is the first public survey to prove it. At a margin of 29 points, voters trust Democrats more than Republicans to protect the health care of already existing people, suggesting that Republicans have lost the argument of the eleventh hour at this time. topic. But the popularity of Trump pulls Braun as a tractor radius; by a margin of 10 points, voters want a senator who will support him.

New York 24 (Siena, 500 likely voters)
John Katko (R) – 53%
Dana Balter (D) – 39%

It's a race you'll hear about even though Katko, who won by 21 points in 2016, is experiencing another eruption. Why? Balter was one of two DCCC candidates among the preferred candidates – although, as local activists pointed out, the DCCC fell behind with a poorly chosen candidate who turned out to have made a statement against him. -abortion. The Liberals had their nominee and Balter raised enough money to make it a run. But Katko, one of the most moderate House Republicans, rose early and was defined as centrist, in a neighborhood that supported Hillary Clinton to the presidency by 3.6 points . The president has only 48% support in the district and if Katko survives, moderate Democrats are ready to blame the left, while Republicans will have an example – a popular president who distances himself from his party – which is more and more difficult to copy.

Pennsylvania 10 (NYT / Siena, 498 likely voters)
Scott Perry (R) – 45%
George Scott (D) – 43%

Here is the reflection of this district of New York, a series of small towns (including Harrisburg) that supported Trump on Clinton 8.9 points, but where the Democrats are unexpectedly competitive. Here's why: Perry, a member of the House Freedom Caucus, was hit by the same campaign "he voted for the removal of our health care" as any vulnerable Republican, while Perry presented himself as Fox News's curator . Races like this will raise questions about how a 2020 Trump campaign could be rebuilt in the Rust Belt, the president who ruled closer to the conservative wing of his party than the one he had conducted.

Texas Senate (UT / Texas Tribune, 927 Electors Probable)
Ted Cruz (R) – 51%
Beto O 'Rourke (D) – 45%

In June, this pollster found Cruz in advance of five points and a national scenario on the Texas Senate race in Texas was born. What has happened since? Cruz improved his favorable score from -1 to 7; O 'Rourke, who was largely unknown in June, saw his favorable drop from 13 to 5. That's really all that has changed, even though the president's rating of 3, remained the same.


Cory Booker. He's gathered in New Hampshire this weekend, during his first visit to the state.

Amy Klobuchar. She spent a quiet weekend in Iowa to rally the Democrats, her own reelection campaign being basically a lock.

Bernie Sanders. He ends the year of the campaign with two rallies on November 4, in New Hampshire, in the cities of Durham and Manchester, a simplified version of his trips to Vermont to explore his bid for 2016.


"The Democrats of the Trump Country", by Daniel Block

This is the season of the voters profiles left behind even in the enlarged map of the house. This one adventure in a part of Virginia where the Democrats do not even dream to compete.

"Jacky Rosen should be moving away from Dean Heller in Nevada. Why is not it? "By John McCormack

Demographics partly explain why Democrats are struggling to overthrow the other Nevada Senate seat; Jacky Rosen's campaign for the second time in office explains the rest.

"Beto O 'Rourke seized a third political rail and electrified his campaign," by Jemele Hill

Does the world need another story about the democratic phenomenon of Texas? Yes, if the story speaks of the effects of OW Rourke, unlike most Democrats, defends the right of NFL players to demonstrate during the national anthem.


This is not the 2018 expected by the Working Families Party. In New York, where the left-wing political group was founded, it won a victorious record in state legislative competitions (serving six conservative Democratic state senators) while losing major competitions on the scale of the state and observing the separation of Governor Andrew M. Cuomo (D). of its founding unions. In other states, where WFP is about to be organized, it has largely won the primaries it has competed in – but the winners are mostly outsiders.

"They will prove that progressive values ​​can compete in every district and every region of the country, and those who represent the rich diversity of our country should move things forward," said WFP Director Maurice Mitchell.

WFP will spend the next nine days trying to end these races, hiring 20 staff members and six personalities in the organization and purchase of commercials. (This is his latest ad purchase outside of New York since his unfortunate intervention in Delaware.) Candidates enroll in three camps:

Democrats, the party is waiting to win. The entire democratic establishment now supports Jahana Hayes of Connecticut and Mikie Sherrill of New Jersey, who have resolutely dominated Republicans in blue neighborhoods.

Democrats with party support, but difficult chances. Randy Bryce of Wisconsin, whom WFP helped recruit for the Congress, is the outsider in a race that Republicans have been trying to turn into a referendum on his personal life and his encounters with the law. But he's leading an aggressive campaign in a neighborhood that the party had abandoned for a few cycles, like Richard Ojeda in West Virginia, JD Scholten in Iowa, Jess King in Pennsylvania, Liuba Grechen Shirley in New York, Liz Watson in Indiana and Andy Kim in New Jersey. WFP also relies on New York's Antonio Delgado, who beat more liberal candidates to win the primary.

Democrats with something to prove. Four of the WFP candidates – Ammar Campa-Najjar (California), Kara Eastman (Nebraska), Dana Balter (New York) and Scott Wallace (Pennsylvania) – were not immediately welcomed by the DC Democrats and were considered the lowest candidates for their primaries. If all lose, the left is ready to be blamed and to be told that their ideas can not win outside a narrow strip of cities and suburbs. A win in any of these is important for the left.


… two days before the presidential speech on immigration
… four days before the final report of the pre-selection work
… nine days until mid-term


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