“The union seems to have finally come to naught” – Kommersant FM – Kommersant

Regular protests took place in Belarus. This time there are fewer detainees. This is partly due to a change in opposition tactics – the protesters are more concentrated in the courtyards. Nevertheless, the security forces used special means in Minsk. On the eve of the Nobel laureate Svetlana Aleksievich announced the possible victory of Alexander Lukashenko. Dmitry Drize, a political observer for Kommersant FM, believes that opposition leaders should try to establish a dialogue with Moscow.

Svetlana Aleksievich did not rule out that Lukashenka might win. This will happen because the opposition wants a peaceful transfer of power, but in the current situation it is difficult to imagine that this could happen. Belarus is a small country, it does not play a big role in the world, democratic institutions are not developed there, so there are not so many ways to force Lukashenka to leave in an amicable way. There is international pressure, but it is not strong enough to create big problems for the regime.

Aleksievich refused to return to Belarus while the current leader is at the helm. The Nobel laureate in literature is not ready to become president because she is a writer, not a politician. There is an opinion that Svetlana Aleksievich could lead the country during the transitional period, since she enjoys indisputable authority both inside Belarus and abroad. But, again, while Alexander Grigorievich controls the security forces, it is difficult to imagine how this can be done.

Meanwhile, regular protests were held in the republic. Lukashenka’s opponents have changed their tactics – they are more concentrated in the courtyards. Nevertheless, again detentions, dispersals, and, most importantly, the permanent leader remains in place. Can Lukashenka Really Win? In the long run, unlikely. But right now he is feeling relatively confident, at least publicly demonstrating that confidence. With Russian support, it is much easier for him, although international pressure is increasing. The electoral history in America will come to an end sooner or later, and then, probably, it will be more difficult for the President of Belarus. Nevertheless, it is better not to lead to the collapse of the economy.

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Perhaps, the coordination council of the opposition should act more actively, which is also being debated, create a government in exile, proclaim a plan for the transfer of power, although something similar is being done. There can be no ideal solutions in such a situation.

There is a way out – this is the formation of public opinion around the world and, most importantly, in Russia.

And here, authoritative enlightened people like Svetlana Aleksievich are very much needed. She has already tried to do this with her message to the Russian intelligentsia. The latter responded, but not so much. We need to continue, well-known intelligent people should be at least uncomfortable when this happens in a neighboring country, besides, the Russian authorities cannot be satisfied with their partner. The project called “deep integration” and even the new alliance seems to have finally come to naught.

That is why the Belarusian opposition, perhaps, should try to grope for a dialogue with Moscow. Such attempts were made by the coordinating council, but this is not enough. It is difficult, understandable, but this is almost the only way out to avoid the final degradation of the state. And the Kremlin does not need this degradation at all, since it will inevitably come back to haunt the elder brother. It’s another matter that common sense hasn’t always won out lately. Therefore, the inevitable change of power in Belarus clearly does not promise to be cloudless.


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