The ruble felt quite confident in recent days. But a new disappointment may await him. Peter Pushkarev, chief analyst of TeleTrade, spoke about the new risks for the national currency, and also gave a forecast for May.
– Today’s Thursday, April 30, carries the maximum risks for the ruble. As the May futures contracts for Brent crude oil expire on this day, the expert explained. – Investors fear that Brent will repeat the fate of WTI crude oil, the price of which for the first time in history went into minus (-40.32 per barrel) after similar contracts.
Therefore, most investors will prefer to get rid of these Brent contracts at any nearest affordable price before the “X hour”. And a slight rise in oil quotes on Wednesday before can only aggravate the scale of a possible one-day sale.
All this will not bring far-reaching consequences, since it has practically no relation to the physical supply of oil. But if the sale of “paper-electronic” oil goes too far, the dollar may again test the mark of 76.5-77 rubles. If the sale will be, but small, and the May Brent quotes will be kept at least above $ 20 per barrel, then the “American” will stop at levels of 75-75.3 rubles.
And finally, if everything works out and it turns out that the bulk of those who want to leave the oil market have already done this before, and oil will behave quietly today, then dollar quotes on this positive can even go to the area of 72.7-73 rubles for a short time.
What ruble exchange rate will see in May
The corridor of currency fluctuations in May can be very wide: 74-78 rubles per dollar and 78-85 rubles per euro. It is impossible to give a more definite forecast for this month.
Since it is precisely in May that there is still a maximum of uncertainty with a further direction on world exchanges. So far, the indices have grown quite well from the bottom, but investors have put a lot of advances for future companies in stock prices.
The global S & P500 index (USA) is already at a distance of less than 15% from the pre-crisis peaks, the technologically advanced Nasdaq index (USA) is generally within 10% of these peaks, and it won back more than 70% of the March fall.
Formally, this is a clear positive, and the dollar is getting a little cheaper, which is why almost the entire basket of currencies, including the ruble. Investors are pledging to open the economy in many states of the USA, to allow the work of most Italian enterprises permitted from May 4 and to slowly remove quarantine in other countries.
For the ruble exchange rate (unlike our economy), this news is more important than even the deadlines for lifting quarantine in Russia itself. But all these good things for the future profits of companies may already be “in prices.” And where does the positive come from? It must be borne in mind that unemployment jumped sharply in all countries that survived the epidemic, average incomes fell among citizens, and overall consumer behavior will change. People will become more cautious both in terms of security when visiting public places, and in terms of saving, having squeezed in expenses. Producers will drop revenue, recovery will be delayed.
Such logic cannot be excluded, and if the exchanges again go into the correctional peak because of this, then cash flows from outside to Russia will immediately fall. The dollar will go to the very top of the range, and only the efforts of the Central Bank of Russia will keep the ruble from a more serious weakening.
But if Western exchanges continue to grow smoothly, the dollar may even fall back to around 70 rubles. But for now, this scenario does not need to be laid too much.