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VIDEO – “The coming summer could slow the coronavirus”. To better come back next winter?

Every day this week, Antoine Flahault, Geneva epidemiologist, answers a question from Heidi.news. Today: can we predict the backlash of the coronavirus epidemic? Should we expect a return next winter?

When it comes to estimating a potential end to the coronavirus epidemic, the professor at the University of Geneva and Geneva epidemiologist Antoine Flauhault does not hide his interrogation: “It is very difficult to say. Should we see the epidemic curve as a simple curve, or a curve with several peaks? ” Before adding: “It is possible that we are seeing several peaks”.

What it means. Antoine Flahault recalls a previous coronavirus epidemic between 2002 and 2003: “In nine months, everything was over. It is a great success of the international coordination developed by WHO, with an intense struggle to contain and eradicate it. ” But this previous epidemic is different from the one that affects the planet today, since “cases of little symptom, probably contagious, were spreading among the population”. An epidemic “much more difficult to stop” which leads the epidemiologist to think that “it could last a little longer”.

Are we going to see the end of it? The seasons could play a role in the evolution of the pandemic. “The coming summer could dampen the tide,” he said. Countries in the southern hemisphere, where heat is higher at the moment, are less affected by the coronavirus. But Antoine Flahault warns: “If there are intense outbreaks in the southern hemisphere that develop during the southern winter, it is possible that this epidemic will come back to us in the winter, much like the flu”.

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We decided to make this content available free of charge as these practical questions are important for reacting well to the ongoing epidemic.

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