Virus, “mortality lower than seasonal flu”. Study on blood tests in Japan

The figure, in terms of the fight against coronavirus, is surprisingly encouraging: the actual mortality of Covid-19 would be 00:01%, even lower than that of milder seasonal flu, but the Japanese researchers themselves put their hands forward by calling for caution. Moreover, since the outbreak of the pandemic, experts have been divided on the criteria for assessing the mortality of the virus and on the comparison with the effects of the flu waves that affect the world every year with more or less dangerous consequences. Not to mention the non-homogeneous way of calculating mortality in the world.

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The research comes from City Medical Center Hospital of Kobe, city of 1.5 million inhabitants west of Osaka on the east coast of Japan. A city that in normal times is a destination for a strong tourist flow, also international, all year round.

The doctors of the hospital, which boasts a university and solid international collaborations, carried out tests on the blood of a thousand people (a significant sample) who entered the hospital for reasons other than the coronavirus epidemic, which in the country, however, triggered measures much less severe containment than in Italy.

Well, as reported by NHK-World Japan, the analyzes revealed that 3.3% of the people (33) who attended the hospital’s surgeries in March and in the first part of April showed traces of Covid-19 antibodies. . If projected on the population of the city – explain the doctors – these data may suggest that at least 50 thousand inhabitants of Kobe have been infected. Many more than those currently known.

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The director of the hospital, Kihara Yasuki, said that it is indeed possible that many more people than expected were infected with the virus without suffering the consequences and are now carrying antibodies.

A circumstance that could suggest a mortality of 0.01% (one death per 10 thousand patients) for the coronavirus, thus demoted, in terms of danger, to less than a normal flu. A scenario that in turn could guide governments in choosing the virus containment measures in order not to cause further slowdowns to the economy. Heavy topic everywhere, starting right from Japan, for example, forced to postpone the Olympics.

At this point, however, the doctors of the Japanese hospital invite caution in evaluating the results of their research: they remember that the accuracy of the tests and the fact that their sample is made up only of people who have attended the surgeries of their Hospital. This figure on the alleged low mortality of Covid-19 arriving from Kobe must now be accompanied by the results of other research carried out in Japan.

And Professor Katsuda Yoshiaki of the Kansai University of Social Welfare recommends respecting social distancing and staying at home because infected people could be many more than those officially known.

Last updated: 16:10

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