Today, the decision on the base rate will be announced by the US Federal Reserve System (FRS), and on Thursday by the European Central Bank (ECB). Their actions, as well as the accompanying comments by the heads of the Fed and the ECB, are able to set the mood for global markets, as well as the ruble.
The Fed will almost certainly keep the rate at the current level (0-0.25%), its head Jerome Powell, like his predecessors, spoke harshly of the transition to negative rates, says Andrei Kadulin, head of the analytical department at St. Petersburg Bank. Nevertheless, the arsenal of monetary incentives is not limited to lower rates, and the expansion of support measures will positively affect the dynamics of the market in the absence of a tangible negative. The question remains the pace of asset purchases, which this week already fell to $ 10 billion a day, says Kadulin.
Key central banks have already done a lot to stabilize financial markets and are unlikely to be able to offer anything more, said Vladimir Evstifeev, head of the Zenit Bank’s analytical department. “In the current context, when stock markets look good and COVID-19 statistics in the West are optimistic, it would be counterintuitive to require the monetary authorities to expand support measures. The Fed is likely to limit itself to verbal interventions in support of markets, while the ECB may propose an expansion of quantitative measures. support, but it’s unlikely to be significant, ”says Evstifeev.
For the ruble, this means stabilization of part of the external background. The oil market has been trading for a long time in isolation from the dynamics of the financial market, so it will be premature to expect relief from the ruble, Evstifeev believes. Nevertheless, encouragement from major central banks may also support the Russian currency, he admits.
On May 1, the new OPEC ++ agreement on the reduction of oil production begins to operate. This factor, as well as ongoing interventions by the Bank of Russia, will allow the dollar to remain below the mark of 75 rubles, Kadulin believes. At the same time, in his opinion, the strengthening of the Russian currency significantly below 73 rubles seems unlikely due to the continued low demand for oil, which will not allow quotations to grow significantly higher than current values.