When Will Merapi Erupt? This is Mbah Rono’s analysis


Status Mount Merapi which is on the border of Central Java and the Special Region of Yogyakarta (DIY) Siaga. Volcanology researcher Surono or who is familiarly called Mbah Rono predicts Merapi will not erupt in the near future. What is the analysis like?

“I have told you not in the near future (Merapi erupts). The volcano did not just erupt because there were lots of earthquakes then it did not erupt like that,” he said. Mbah Rono when contacted by reporters, Wednesday (2/12/2020).

The former Head of the Center for Volcanology and Geological Disaster Mitigation (PVMBG) said that Mount Merapi has changed when compared to 2010. According to him, based on the current Merapi seismic data tends to fluctuate.

“So far, Merapi has had a lot of earthquakes, then it has fluctuated and gusted a lot, yes, it is not hoarding,” he explained.

“For example (earthquake) avalanches a little, a while later a shallow volcanic earthquake rises, then the earthquake gusts and the phases of the number go down and the gusts increase again and the avalanches are not complete,” continued Mbah Rono.

According to his analysis, the possibility of an eruption of Mount Merapi could occur if the earthquake avalanches and the gusts are small.

“Unless suddenly the fallout stops a little, the gusts are a little bit, but the shallow volcanic earthquakes rise, the phases of the many rise may be bledos (eruption),” he said.

Mbah Rono said that there is no need for a lava dome to appear first for an eruption. Because, what determines the eruption is the energy pressure from within the mountain.

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“It doesn’t have to be (there is a lava dome). We’ll see if it’s really strong. The existing seismicity collects energy if it fails to collect energy, when will it erupt,” explained Mbah Rono.

“It is easy to erupt the pressure inside is stronger than the pressure outside,” he added.

Seeing these activities, Mbah Rono believed in status Merapi Siaga will be long.

“It seems like a long time. Maybe if you hope to erupt in the near future, I don’t think so. As long as the pattern is like this, the number of phases increases, the gusts will rise and then fall again but it is offset by gusts and falls. ngono wae (just like that), “he said.

For this reason, he advised the public to remain vigilant and continue to comply with the recommendations given by the Geological Disaster Technology Research and Development Center (BPPTKG).

“Yes, follow the recommendations of the BPPTKG. A recommendation is followed. People around Merapi are obsessed. They were told to evacuate,” he concluded.



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