Why the boom in the German real estate market is coming to an end

VThe recession as a result of the Corona crisis on the German real estate market is unlikely to leave its mark. Depending on the segment of the market, the consequences could be very different. In addition, the role of real estate as a “safe haven” for international investors could also support the market, particularly in uncertain times. At any rate, a study by DZ Bank that the F.A.Z. is available exclusively, expects the Corona crisis to end the German real estate boom. The Landesbank Hessen-Thüringen (Helaba), whose chief economist Gertrud Traud has often demonstrated a good instinct for developments, previously made a similar statement. According to the DZ Bank study, the good economy and falling interest rates would have pushed property prices up ten years, “but the corona virus is stopping the increase.” Residential real estate and logistics and office properties would probably get away without major damage. “But it looks cloudy for retail and hotels,” the DZ Bank authors write. In addition, there is an indication that the corona crisis is giving digitalization a boost in Germany: “Flexible working and shopping could have a long-term impact on demand for office and retail properties.”

Christian Siedenbiedel

Michael Psotta

Michael Psotta

Business editor, responsible for the real estate part.

In a study, Deutsche Bank also played through the possibility that employers, not employees, could discover the advantages of home office in the crisis and consequently reduce the number of office jobs in favor of home work – also to reduce costs. According to DZ Bank, an office employee currently accounts for almost 30 square meters in Germany. With large employers in particular, this could certainly lead to a reduction in space requirements and thus in demand for office properties. However, this effect is still fraught with uncertainty.

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